This Thursday (May 12), US President Joe Biden will host the leaders of ASEAN countries at the White House. This is the first time under Biden that ASEAN leaders have held a summit in the United States. Of the 10 ASEAN countries, a total of 8 leaders attended the meeting. Myanmar, which took part in a military coup last year, and the Philippines, which is busy with election transitions, will not be represented in the conference.
The US "Diplomat" website wrote on the 11th that pointed out the particularity of this meeting, believing that it is a "milestone" in the Biden administration's contact with Southeast Asian countries, and the purpose is to "balance China". Previously, diplomats in the Biden administration have also repeatedly mentioned the importance of Southeast Asia.
However, in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, whether the United States can free up its hands to pay attention to the Asia-Pacific region has become the focus of attention from the outside world. In addition, during the Trump administration and the Biden administration, the United States had little contact with Southeast Asian countries. Before Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited the United States in March this year, ASEAN leaders had not set foot in the United States for nearly five years.
ASEAN countries have revealed information that they hope that the United States can participate more in economic cooperation. Ko Kim-hwan, an adviser to the Cambodian Prime Minister, said bluntly that he would not "choose sides" between China and the United States. The analysis, cited by Reuters, said the summit was "basically symbolic" and there would be no substantive progress.
Last December, Biden held a virtual summit with the leaders of ASEAN countries in the infographic
For the first time in Biden's tenure, "but there may not be bilateral talks"
According to Reuters reported on the 11th, the meeting between the leaders of the United States and ASEAN will be held on the 12th and 13th. Eight of the 10 ASEAN countries will travel to the United States to attend the conference. Myanmar was excluded because of last year's military coup. Philippine leader Duterte also did not travel to the United States on the grounds of the change.
At present, the leaders of various countries have traveled to the United States, and Malaysian Prime Minister Shapiri has arrived in the United States.
It is worth mentioning that this is the second time in the history of ASEAN leaders to hold a summit in the United States. In 2016, former U.S. President Barack Obama met with ASEAN leaders on Rancho Mirage, California.
The Diplomat website notes that the upcoming summit is "symbolically important" and a "milestone" for the Biden administration's engagement with Southeast Asian countries. At present, the US government believes that China's influence in Asia is increasing day by day, and Southeast Asia is the "core region" of checks and balances.
On the eve of the summit, Kate Rebholz, the acting U.S. ambassador to ASEAN, has let the summit shine, which will lead to "an ambitious and forward-looking statement of the U.S.-ASEAN vision," including partnerships in public health, climate, and economic growth.
White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell said on the 9th that it will hold "substantive" discussions with ASEAN on technology, education, infrastructure and other issues, and the United States will soon announce plans to better combat illegal fishing in the Pacific.
White House spokesman Psaki said in announcing the summit that the biden administration's top priority is to strengthen a strong, unified ASEAN to meet the challenges of our time.
Hun Sen has traveled to the Phnom Penh Post in the United States
Although on the eve of the summit, officials from both sides rarely mentioned China, Reuters pointed out that at present, when the Ukraine issue is seriously distracted, the summit is held as usual, which means that "the spearhead is aimed at China".
However, Cambodia's prime minister's adviser Ko Kim-hwan revealed an intriguing detail on the eve of the summit: At the Summit on May 12 and 13, there was no separate meeting between the leaders of the world and Biden.
Ko kim-hwan believes ASEAN leaders "should be treated with respect and equality" and have the opportunity to spend "meaningful time" with Biden. "As a great power, a host nation, the United States should be more generous to visiting leaders, especially as Biden elevates the discussions to a comprehensive strategic partnership."
He believes that as the current rotating presidency of ASEAN, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's meeting with Biden is normal practice. "Whether it's formal or informal, there should be some kind of dialogue."
But Patrick Murphy, the U.S. ambassador to Cambodia, told him the two sides had not arranged bilateral talks. Because the summit is already long, and "Biden is busy."
Interestingly, this was Hun Sen's first visit to the White House in history. Since coming to power in 1985, Hun Sen has been criticized by the United States for his "human rights" issues.
If there are differences on economic issues, can the interests of the two sides overlap?
The summit is about to take place, but there are many concerns among ASEAN countries. On the one hand, the United States has lacked quantity and quality in exchanges with ASEAN countries in the past five years. "Diplomats" quoted Susannah Patton, a researcher at the Lowy Institute, as saying that prior to the summit, there was a relative lack of contact between the US president and the leaders of Southeast Asian countries. Although Washington sent many senior officials to regional visits during its first 17 months in office, including Vice President Harris, Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Blinken, there was little direct contact between the leaders of the two sides.
At the end of March this year, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited the United States, which is also the first time since 2017 that a leader of a Southeast Asian country has visited the United States. In addition, Biden has only held bilateral talks with the leaders of two ASEAN countries, Singapore and Indonesia.
At the end of March this year, Lee Hsien Loong met with Biden in the infographic
On the other hand, ASEAN countries have revealed that they want to strengthen economic cooperation rather than "choose sides". Gao Jinhuan told Reuters that Cambodia has close economic ties with China and will not "choose sides" between China and the United States. ASEAN is ready to work with both countries on the principle of "inclusiveness".
Similarly, the US side seems eager to get ASEAN countries to speak out on the Russian-Ukrainian issue. But Ko also said that ASEAN member states have different positions on the conflict, but any collective position of ASEAN must be based on "consensus".
Analysts said that although ASEAN countries may have similar interests to the United States on security issues, considering the important economic relations between ASEAN and China, as well as the "limited economic incentives" of the United States, they appear to be "cautious" about taking the side of the United States.
In fact, after former U.S. President Donald Trump formally withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, ASEAN countries have been disappointed with U.S. economic plans.
At a virtual summit with ASEAN last October, Biden said the U.S. would begin discussions on building a regional economic framework, but diplomats revealed that the plan could only be discussed "on the periphery" this week.
Japan's ambassador to Washington said Biden's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) could be officially launched in Japan, but details are still being discussed. Analysts and diplomats told Reuters that only two ASEAN countries are currently expected to participate in the IPEF talks. Given Biden's concerns about U.S. jobs, IPEF is not currently expanding market access for Asian countries.
Gao Jinhuan believes that Biden's IPEF is still a "work in progress" and that Washington is focused on domestic issues and the Ukraine crisis. "There are a lot of details that we don't know yet," he said of IPEF. "We understand that there are many competing priorities on America's global agenda."
The outside world is also not optimistic about the economic cooperation between the two sides. Gregory Poling, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said: "The United States has done a pretty solid job in politics and security, but it's done a poor job economically. If the United States simply brings guns and diplomacy to the negotiating table, it cannot effectively compete with China. Frankly, it has to bring cash, and we've been bad at that. ”
Evan Feigenbaum, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a recent interview that the primary function most Asian countries want the United States to engage in is "addition and multiplication," not "subtraction and division."
An editorial commentary in the South China Morning Post on the 1st of this month pointed out that without a clear agenda, ASEAN countries participating in the summit "may send the wrong signal to China." But because China is the largest trading partner and investor of the G20 countries, ASEAN countries usually do not choose sides in order to maintain bilateral relations with China and the United States and embrace opportunities at any time.
But for his part, Biden is eager to push a divided agenda to weaken China's influence. He is also eager to push for the lost influence of the United States during the Trump era.
But none of the ASEAN members have taken a stand. In 2020, China's bilateral trade with Southeast Asia reached $685 billion, far exceeding the $362 billion between the United States and ASEAN. Although the U.S. side claims to promote cooperation at the time of the summit, it is actually for geopolitical interests, and China will certainly be the focus. "Leaders attending the meeting must have a clear understanding of the agenda of the meeting and be clear about why they were invited."