#Russia-Ukraine conflict##Hungary bills the EU for an oil embargo on Russia##芬兰瑞典加入北约 How Russia can counter #
Text/Junjian
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered the 86th day, after the Russian army won the Battle of Mariupol, the two sides engaged in fierce fighting in the Donbass region, the Ukrainian side declared a "counter-offensive" in Kharkov, and the Russian army formed an encirclement of the Ukrainian army in Donbass, ready to annihilate the Ukrainian army defending the city in one fell swoop.
(Ukrainian personnel from the Azov Steel Plant surrendered and left in a bus after surrendering)
For the Western countries dominated by the United States, using the Ukraine crisis to severely sanction and retaliate against Russia is the current priority intention. However, it has been almost three months since the outbreak of the conflict, and the Western countries have not been able to hold back Russia. Recently, the Western "anti-Russian front" has also been mired in three waves of infighting, which has weakened their ability to suppress Russia.
First, the EU was unable to agree on an oil embargo on Russia, which made a lot of money from energy exports.
European Commission President von der Leyen recently reaffirmed hungary's refusal to support the sixth round of sanctions against Russia because hungary believes it cannot accept the consequences of not having Russian oil. As a condition, Hungary wants the EU to first come up with 15 billion to 18 billion euros of "sincerity gold" to help Hungary develop new energy technologies such as solar energy, and if Hungary's energy security is guaranteed, then Hungary will consider supporting the EU embargo on Russian oil.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Hungary has been the "thorn" of the European Union, and the country has repeatedly vetoed actions unfavorable to Russia with its own strength. Previously, the EU wanted to resist Putin's gas ruble settlement order, but hungary rejected it, and the EU could only accept Russia's ruble rules. Now the EU has stalled on the embargo on Russian oil, which has led to the delay in implementing the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.
(EU Foreign Ministers will fail to agree on sanctions)
According to the International Energy Agency, Russia's oil exports rose sharply to 8.1 million barrels per day in April, and Russia's oil revenue has risen by 50%, with profits reaching $20 billion per month. The EU absorbs more than 40% of Russian oil. If the EU cannot sanction Russia's oil exports, then Russia will continue to make a lot of money. Moreover, even if the EU gives up Russian oil, Russia can sell oil at a low price and seek other buyers, which the EU cannot stop.
Not to mention natural gas, the EU has already acquiesced to Russia's ruble settlement rules, and although the EU now plans to invest hundreds of billions of euros to change its energy strategy, it is a goal that will take several years to achieve, at least for the time being, the EU is still buying Russian gas in large quantities, and Russia can already make huge profits with oil and gas alone. And because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European energy prices have soared, which has made Russia have a large "windfall".
Second, Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO has been blocked, and turkey and Croatia have set their own terms.
The United States tried to exert new pressure on Russia by getting NATO to absorb Finland and Sweden, but things were stuck here in NATO. The first is Turkey, Turkey directly throws out a series of conditions, including the attitude of the United States to the "Gulen problem", the attitude of Finland and Sweden to the Kurds, the United States refuses to give F-35 fighter jets, Turkey buys the S-400 air defense missile system and is sanctioned, and many other questions, turkey is asking for answers, Turkey has said that if these problems are not dealt with, then Ankara will say "no" to the joining of The Two Countries to NATO.
Croatia has made a similar statement, Croatian President Milanovic believes that Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina are suffering discrimination, and NATO is blind to this, if the problem of Bosnia and Herzegovina is not resolved, then Croatia intends to "reject" The Swiss-Finnish countries.
in Milanović
Croatia has not supported NATO expansion because it fears it will be drawn into the dispute. Turkey, on the other hand, wants to play a "great power role" at the junction of Europe and Asia, so Turkey is very fond of geostrategic balancing. In recent years, Turkey has been getting closer to Russia, which has led to the deterioration of relations between the United States and Turkey. Turkey has also recently publicly stated that it will not stop its dealings with Russia, which also shows that Turkey has chosen to "support" Russia to some extent.
This kind of infighting within NATO actually shows that the hegemonic camp of the United States is not monolithic, and even leaks everywhere. For NATO's expansion plan, Russia also has the means to deal with it, and the Russian side has made it clear that it will respond. Instead, possibly fearful of angering Russia, Finland has reiterated that it will not consider deploying NATO nuclear weapons or permanent bases in the country.
(Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin says Finland will not deploy NATO nuclear weapons and permanent bases, and Sweden has expressed the same position.)
Third, because of the Northern Ireland issue, the United Kingdom and the European Union have once again exchanged harsh words.
Recently, there have been a series of political changes in the North Ireland region of the United Kingdom, and the North Ireland region has shown signs of secession from the United Kingdom due to the victory of the Sinn Fein Party, which supports the merger of Northern Ireland and Ireland, in the parliamentary election. In this context, the UK was unhappy with the Northern Ireland Protocol with the EU, which was prepared to weaken the EU's influence over Northern Ireland and strengthen London's control over Northern Ireland by amending some of its provisions.
But Britain's plan also immediately stimulated the EU, which even warned that it could destabilize the "anti-Russian front." In response to the UK's revision plan, the EU's response was "unacceptable" and implied that if the UK had to do something, the EU would not hesitate to respond through an "economic war".
(Anti-Brexit slogan in Northern Ireland)
However, Johnson's attitude is also very tough, he is ready to push the British parliament legislation to prepare for the "worst case scenario", that is, if the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union break down, then the United Kingdom may unilaterally and directly amend the Northern Ireland Protocol, which will trigger a new round of crisis in British-European relations.
Of course, the United Kingdom is facing more than just the problem of Northern Ireland, Scottish leader Sturgeon recently made it clear that the occurrence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict actually shows the necessity of Scotland's "departure from the United Kingdom" and joining NATO, and Sturgeon warned Johnson not to take "stupid action". McDonald, the leader of the Sinn Fein Party in Northern Ireland, also believes that if Johnson tries to act, then he may have a direct confrontation with Ireland, the European Union and even the United States.
(Northern Ireland Riots)
From the above 3 waves of infighting in Western countries, it is not difficult to see that the hegemonic camp of the United States is actually full of contradictions, which is why NATO and EU countries will show very different attitudes on the issue of "supporting Ukraine". Even those like Turkey have simply stressed that they will not give up cooperation with Russia. At the end of the day, profit dictates.
Russia is obviously happy to see this difference exist, and for Putin, the more serious the infighting in the Western countries, the more weak their will to "hold together" against Russia. On the Russian side, it can take advantage of the interests of Western countries to break up the "anti-Russian front" of Western countries by providing energy support and other means.
(Putin delivers a speech at the scene of the military parade in Russia to celebrate the victory day of the Great Patriotic War)
Since the positions of Western countries are different on the issue of Ukraine, it is difficult to form a concerted action. In this case, Russia will be able to ensure that its operations are not too disturbed. In fact, even the United States has reservations about Ukraine, let alone other countries. Therefore, Ukraine is still in the control of Russia, and the last laugh may be Putin.