Author: Ling Yun
Source: Tiandi Yuntu Chinese Medicine Industry Big Data
At the beginning of May, the first China-Vietnam train "Special Train for importing Chinese medicinal materials" arrived at the Pingxiang Railway Port under the supervision of Pingxiang Customs, which means that under the epidemic situation, the obstruction of Sino-Vietnamese trade after nearly half a year has begun to ease.
Due to the recurrence of the global epidemic and the strict prevention and control of the spread of the epidemic by customs, the import volume of Chinese herbal medicines in Vietnam has dropped significantly. According to the monitoring of the big data platform of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry in Tiandi Yuntu, from March to May 2022, the varieties of Chinese medicinal materials associated with Vietnam, such as Artemisia annua, Lotus Seed, Locust Flower, Coix Seed, Locust Rice, Clove, Tianlong, Star Anise, Fat Sea and Qi Shi, all showed different degrees of increase, with an average increase of nearly 15%. However, since May 15, Vietnam chose to "lie flat" in the face of the epidemic, the prices of the above medicinal herbs have fallen back.
The following is the monitoring and analysis of the TNT Cloud Map Chinese Medicine Big Data Platform:
First, import and export trade: China-Vietnam border trade volume has grown steadily
Figure 1: Import and export trade between China and Vietnam from 2017 to April 2022 (Data source: General Administration of Customs)
From the perspective of import and export trade: since the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic in 2020, border trade has been seriously blocked, and although the border trade between the mainland and Vietnam has still shown steady growth under such a dilemma, the growth rate has changed significantly, and the overall change is divided into two major stages before the epidemic and after the epidemic:
Before the pandemic: Trade growth slowed. The amount of trade imported from Vietnam by the mainland increased from US$50.375 billion in 2017 to US$64.117 billion in 2019, an increase of 27.28%; The value of export trade increased from US$71.616 billion in 2017 to US$97.869 billion in 2021, an increase of 36.66%.
After the epidemic: Although affected by the epidemic, trade has increased significantly. The amount of mainland imports from Vietnam increased from US$64.117 billion in 2019 to US$92.317 billion in 2021, an increase of 43.98%; The value of export trade increased from US$97.869 billion in 2019 to US$137.904 billion, an increase of 40.91%.
From January to April 2022, the import amount reached 26.264 billion US dollars, accounting for 48.28% of the total import trade in 2021, and the import trade amount is expected to reach 100 billion US dollars by the end of 2022; The export value reached 43.596 billion US dollars, accounting for 31.61% of the total import trade in 2021, and the export trade amount is expected to reach 140 billion US dollars by the end of 2022.
With the gradual recovery of Sino-Vietnamese border trade, whether it is imports or exports, the overall performance has shown a significant recovery, and the amount of trade is expected to continue to break through new highs.
Second, the trade of Chinese herbal medicines: the contradiction between supply and demand of some rising varieties is prominent
Figure 2: Fluctuations in the market of Chinese medicinal materials imported from Vietnam from 2020 to 2022
According to the monitoring statistics of the big data platform of the Chinese medicine industry in Tiandi Yuntu, there are 29 varieties of Chinese herbal medicines that have been traded with Vietnam for a long time in the mainland, and the market in June 2022 has dropped by an average of 7.30% compared with March 2022.
Specifically, among the 29 varieties, 17 have risen (see Figure 2), accounting for 58.62%; There are 2 flat varieties of yellow vine and agarwood, accounting for 6.90%; There are 10 varieties in decline, accounting for 34.48%.
For example, betel nut, cloves, cumin, fat sea, white cardamom and other varieties of origin abroad, completely dependent on imported supplies, once customs clearance is blocked, it is easy to lead to serious shortage of domestic raw material supply; Pepper, agarwood, chicken blood vine, turmeric, etc., due to the serious decline in domestic production capacity or a significant reduction in resources and other factors, the varieties that need to be supplemented by imports will also be blocked by goods, and there will be obvious supply shortages.
Third, the analysis of key varieties: prices fluctuate with changes in prevention and control policies
According to my platform research, since 2020, Vietnam has seen many port closures, relying on imports and supplies of pepper, betel nut, cloves, Tianlong, white cardamom, sea mantis, pods and chicken blood vines and other varieties due to the obstruction of goods, the supply of the domestic market is tight, resulting in a variety of market increases of more than 20%, and some varieties even increased by more than 100%.
In May 2022, thanks to the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control at ports, border trade gradually returned to normal, and the market of key varieties monitored by our platform showed a downward trend as a whole.
Pepper, mainly produced in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries, is now widely planted in the tropics; It is cultivated in Taiwan and Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Yunnan provinces and regions.
The global pepper exporters are Vietnam, Brazil, India, Malaysia and Indonesia, with Vietnam ranking first in the world. Affected by the global COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the global market share of Vietnamese black pepper has dropped from about 80% to 65%-70%, while the production capacity of other countries has also shown a clear downward trend.
In 2021, although the global pepper crop harvest decreased by 15%-35% compared with 2019, due to the lockdown measures taken by governments to curb the spread of the new crown epidemic, the catering industry was significantly affected, global pepper consumption is estimated to fall by 5%-10%, and overcapacity led to oversupply, making the pepper market continue to oscillate in the low price range.
Under the influence of border trade obstruction and the rise in international commodity futures, in April 2022, the price of black pepper reached 26 yuan (kilogram price, the same below), compared with 18 yuan in the same period of 2019, an increase of 44.44%, but with the opening of the port, the price of black pepper slightly adjusted, currently about 24.5 yuan.
Fat Sea, mainly produced in Vietnam, Laos, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries; Among them, most of the round fruits come from Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, and the long fruits only come from Vietnam.
The annual demand of fat sea is about 1200-1500 tons. Stimulated by the historically high prices in 2010 and 2014, the production areas began to expand planting, and the production area more than doubled. Fat sea from growth to abundant production needs to go through 5 years, at present, the fat sea plants in the main producing countries have completed the replacement of new and old, and the overall production capacity continues to rise.
After 2020, the Sino-Vietnamese border trade has been blocked many times, driving a slight rebound in the market, but in the case of a significant increase in production capacity and abundant social inventories, the market rebound is not strong, and the overall market is still declining. The current price of fat sea long fruit is 90 yuan, compared with 105 in the same period of 2019, the market has dropped significantly, with a decline of 14.29%.
Cloves, mainly produced in Vietnam, Tanzania, Malaysia, Indonesia, Madagascar and other countries; It is also cultivated in Hainan Province, Leizhou Peninsula, Guangdong, Guangxi and other places.
The annual demand for cloves is 1500-2000 tons. Stimulated by the historical high price market in 2011, the planting enthusiasm of farmers in major production areas is high, and the local areas continue to extend outward on the basis of the original planting area, with the maturity of planting technology and the improvement of management technology, newly planted plants gradually usher in the peak production period, and the production capacity of various countries begins to increase significantly, driving the market to begin to gradually pull back.
Affected by the global epidemic in 2020, the supply of goods can not be customs clearance normally, and the market has risen significantly, but due to the growth of production capacity, after border trade returned to normal, the overall market declined slightly. The current price of cloves is about 57 yuan.
White cardamom, mainly produced in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Guatemala and South America; It is cultivated on Hainan Island in mainland China and in southern Yunnan.
The annual demand for white cardamom is 2500-3000 tons. In 2015, the main producing area of Indonesia suffered a drought market that had not been encountered for more than 20 years, resulting in a large-scale death of white cardamom. In 2019, serious forest fires occurred in many parts of Indonesia, resulting in the burning of more than 930,000 hectares of land, and white cardamom plants were not spared.
Without the support of the Indonesian supply of origin, from 2019, the white cardamom market began to climb rapidly, and created a historical sky-high price of 360 yuan in 2020. Stimulated by the rising market, countries began to increase planting, and after 2020, global production capacity began to gradually recover to the level before 2019.
At present, the white cardamom plants in various countries are in the stage of abundant production, and the overall production capacity will continue to increase. The current cardamom price is 48 yuan, compared with 70 yuan in the same period of 2019, the market has declined significantly, down 45.83%.
Chicken blood vine, mainly produced in Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and other Southeast Asian countries; The mainland is mainly produced in Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and other provinces.
Chicken blood vine is supplied to the market with wild resources, and the annual demand is 15,000-20,000 tons. Since the 1990s, imported goods have gradually entered the Chinese market, accounting for more than 80% of the domestic market share because of its high quality and low price. At the same time, in recent years, due to the increased protection of forest resources by the national forestry department, the supply of domestic resources cannot meet the market demand, and can only rely on imported supplies to supplement.
After 2019, the market situation of chicken blood vine has risen rapidly due to the obstruction of goods coming from the port. However, due to the fact that southeast Asian resources are still rich, as border trade gradually returns to normal, the overall market correction. The current price of chicken blood vine is about 11.00 yuan.
Iv. Summary: Accelerate the localization of resources
1, relying on the supply of imported supplement varieties due to port customs clearance can be alleviated Betel nut, cloves, cucutan, fat sea, cardamom, pepper, agarwood, chicken blood vine and other varieties that rely on Vietnam's imports and supplies will be effectively alleviated as the border trade between China and Vietnam is gradually restored, and the tight situation of domestic resource supply will be effectively alleviated.
2. The export of traditional Chinese medicine production needs to be paid attention In recent years, with the rise of domestic labor costs and the increase in resource harvesting costs, the production of various chinese medicinal materials in China has a tendency to migrate to Southeast Asia, such as huanglian, ganoderma lucidum, bergamot, locust rice, poria, lotus seeds, cinnamon, star anise and so on. Whether this migration affects the authenticity of Chinese herbal medicines, and even affects the strategic safety of Chinese medicine raw materials, should arouse the great attention of relevant departments and industries.
3, sustainable use of resources is the fundamental way to solve the problem My platform analysis found that most of the imported medicinal materials in Vietnam are spice varieties, but star anise, cinnamon, pepper and turmeric are bulk varieties with an annual demand of more than 50,000 tons, and cloves, white cardamom, chicken blood vine, sea mantis and other medicinal materials are the core raw materials of basic medicinal varieties in many countries, and once the supply is tight, it is bound to affect the domestic related varieties. Only by accelerating the localization of resources and accelerating the domestication of wild variants can we avoid the embarrassing situation of "stuck neck" of resources in the future.