【Wafer demand fever endangers Taiwan's economic lifeline? Jie Wenji: Taiwan faces a double risk, and the disaster is very terrible.
Semiconductor foundry is the lifeblood of Taiwan's economy and is now facing great risks.
With the construction of more fabs in various countries, the chip consumer end and the manufacturing industry have a misalignment between supply and demand, and Chen Junsheng, chairman of Taiwan's Acer, is worried about the reversal of the industry, fearing a "national security" crisis. In response to the phenomenon that the demand for wafers is like the fever of the Portuguese egg tower in that year, Taiwan's well-known current affairs commentator Jie Wenji pointed out in the political discussion program "Lu Xiufang Spicy Evening News" on the 18th that due to the United States' desire to reduce its dependence on Taiwan wafers, Taiwan is facing the double risk of overall volume reduction and the US policy of dispersing procurement sources.
Jie Wenji said that when the global chip was out of stock, the industry had pointed out that there was an abnormality in the supply chain at that time, and there were also problems in the logistics industry at that time, resulting in many operators hoarding goods in large quantities; At that time, the United States was sanctioning Chinese mainland, many mainland manufacturers do not know what the future situation will be, such as Huawei because of sanctions and can not get goods, but before September 2020, Huawei placed a large number of orders for chips, a large number of hoarding, many mainland manufacturers are also afraid of facing the situation of Huawei, but also a large number of orders, hoarding goods are very bad.
He further pointed out that there was a large shortage of car chips for a period of time, and some industry insiders pointed out that in fact, it is not that the amount is not enough, but that the hoarding is very bad. And now with the high inflation in the United States, causing everyone to be pessimistic about the future of the market, everyone is expecting that the recession in the United States will lead to a worldwide recession, when will it happen? However, there is a consensus that the economy has set the tone towards recession.
So with the recent Acer Chairman Chen Junsheng said, the industry has begun to reverse, the consumer manufacturing side has known that the market demand is declining, and the upstream in the supply of chip raw materials, especially Taiwan's wafer manufacturers do not know, is still continuing to produce wafers, so the market demand is reduced, the production capacity continues to expand, Jie Wenji said: "He (Chen Junsheng) believes that the disaster caused by this is very, very scary. ”
Jie Wenji said that now the world's fabs are under construction, Taiwan especially pay special attention to is that the United States does not want chips are concentrated in Taiwan production, the future will be dispersed from the source of procurement, and the first to be dispersed is the source of manufacturing, part of the United States to do it itself, the other part to invest in Japan; No matter how much the world declines in the future, as far as the current US policy is concerned, it is necessary to first reduce the dependence on Taiwan wafers, of course, the objects of procurement will be dispersed, and Taiwan will be affected by the imbalance between supply and demand of wafers, not only the impact of the overall volume reduction, but also by the Dispersion of procurement sources by the United States, so it faces a double risk.
