Watching the news often, many interesting phenomena make people reflect. For example, the problem of low domestic grain prices is often complained about, the main reason is that the imported corn, soybeans, wheat and other grain prices are low, and the quality is still very good. There will be 3 to 5 kinds of unsalable fruits in China every year, but a large number of sky-high fruits will be imported, is it the impact of imported fruits that has led to the development of the domestic fruit industry? With that in mind, let's discuss it today and see what's going on?
1. The main reason for the low domestic grain prices.
According to various statistics, the per capita grain production in 2019 was 470 kg, which was increased to 474 kg in 2020 and 483 kg in 2021, which has already exceeded the 400 kg level of the per capita subsistence line designated by the United Nations per capita, while the global per capita grain in 2021 is only 385 kg, China is already a veritable food self-sufficiency country, completely do not need to import grain to eat enough, so the price of grain in China will not rise. It's already good to stay at the original level.
Since the beginning of this year, the state has ensured that peasants have money to earn money from planting land, and has raised the price of grain such as early rice, which is already a blessing for farmers.
As for the call for grain prices to rise, it is also reasonable that the current price of agricultural materials has risen, fuel costs, seed prices, water costs, labor costs, machinery costs, etc. have risen significantly, and the profits from planting grain crops are meager. However, from the perspective of the overall situation, the rise in grain prices, the consequences of which are rising wages, rising prices of industrial raw materials, rising logistics costs, and ultimately consumers paying the bill, farmers not only find it difficult to profit from it, but will feel the economic difficulties brought about by rising prices.
Today's urban population has far exceeded the rural permanent population, rising food prices, increasing the cost of living of migrant workers, the same can not earn more money, but will promote polarization, contrary to the purpose of common prosperity.
Therefore, although grain prices are market economies, they are also carried out within the scope of the state's macroeconomic regulation and control, and foreign grain prices are low, and if there are signs of rising grain prices and increase the amount of imported grain, we can control the pressure of excessive fluctuations in grain prices.
2. Will imported grain affect domestic food prices?
As mentioned above, China originally had the ability to meet its own food consumption, and it is precisely because of the abundance of grain, the people's driving force for a high-quality life has been strengthened, and there are a large number of foreign exchange reserves, which has the ability to develop animal husbandry and increase people's demand for meat, eggs and milk supply.
According to statistics, in 2018, the per capita consumption of meat, eggs and milk was 71.84 kg, of which 49.92 kg of meat (including aquatic products), 9.7 kg of eggs, and 12.22 kg of milk. In 2021, the per capita consumption of meat, milk, eggs and aquatic products in the mainland was 69.6 kg, 42.5 kg, 24.1 kg and 22.8 kg respectively, equivalent to 37.7 grams of animal protein per capita per day, compared with 6.5 grams per day in 1978, the intake of animal protein increased by nearly 5 times, and the living standards of the Chinese were greatly improved.
Chinese the average amount of arable land is limited, can only produce so much grain every year, if you want to produce enough meat, eggs and milk, you need to consume a lot of soybeans, corn, etc., China has to import a lot of soybeans and corn, which is also a matter of necessity.
The main grain producing areas abroad are fertile black soil or plains with a high degree of mechanization, and the planting cost is very low, so the price of grain is very low, and there are also profits, and imports to the country will of course impact the domestic grain prices. For example, the main wheat-producing areas in Russia, Ukraine and Canada are endless black lands; The main corn-producing area is the Great Plains on both sides of the Great River in the United States; Soybeans in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries are genetically modified soybeans, with high yields, high oil content, few pests and insect pests, and high degree of mechanization; The main rice producing areas are in the indus valley of India, Vietnam, Myanmar and other tropical regions; Rice can be planted for 3 crops a year at a lower cost.
Another reason for the low price of grain exports in countries such as the United States is the drastic increase in agricultural subsidies for farmers who grow food, accounting for more than 40 per cent of the total profits of farmers.
The world's international food trade market is controlled by the four major grain merchants in ABCD, and the United States has used food as a weapon to reduce food prices through a large number of food subsidies, and through WTO rules, restricting or forcing other countries to open up food markets and use food as the main means of controlling the world. Importing grain in large quantities will inevitably affect the enthusiasm of farmers in planting grain, and if the national treasury is not sufficient, it is likely to affect future economic development and food security.
Fortunately, China is thinking of danger in times of peace, and the national stockpile has a large number of grain reserves, and it is difficult for multinational companies to control China's grain prices and food security through grain. Being born in China is the luckiest thing.
3. The main reason for the slow sale of domestic fruits.
With the improvement of China's material living standards, people's demand for vegetables and fruits has further increased, and the per capita consumption of fruits has reached an alarming level.
In 2000, China's fruit planting area reached 130.05 million mu, and in 2022, the orchard area developed to 184.15 million mu. At the same time, domestic fruit production has increased significantly, with mainland fruit production only 0.62 billion tons in 2000 and 293 million tons by 2021. In 2012, the per capita consumption of mainland fruits was only 135.51 kg, and by 2021 it will increase to 175.27 kg, including the number of fruit processed consumption.
The area planted with fruit trees has increased significantly, and in years when the wind and rain are smooth, the number of fruits is too large, and it is difficult to avoid the slow sales of the place of origin. Coupled with the single variety, can not adapt to the various needs of different consumer groups, on the one hand, the fruit you want to eat can not be found, on the other hand, the fruit grown can not be sold. For example, China's current apple base, the vast majority of them are all red Fuji, many people think that there is no original red marshal, yellow marshal delicious, but where can you buy these apples?
China is a vast country, the distance between the north and the south is very far from the east to the west, and there is a large backlog of fruits from fruit production areas, and even sold into cabbage prices, while the low price of consumption remains high, it is particularly important to dredge transportation channels and reduce logistics costs, and open up the last kilometer between production and consumption.
4. The reason for the high price of imported fruits.
The price of imported fruits remains high, and many people think that it is a profiteering industry, in fact, many times the cost is too high. The highest price of imported fruits in China is precisely when there is no such fruit in China, and the foreign fruit production areas have only begun to mature, and have not yet reached the time of a large number of listings, the same fruits are almost uncompetitive, and the purchase price is already very high. In order to be able to sell at a good price, most of these fruits are shipped by air, and the cost is very high.
Because the quantity is small, the purchase price is expensive, and the number of sales is limited, retailers face the risk of product backlog, so they will raise the price to ensure profitability. At this stage, the price of imported fruits is the highest, most of them are consumed by high-end consumer groups, and ordinary people have almost no interest except sighs.
When a large number of fruits are listed in the place of origin, the price of the place of origin will fall, in order to be able to sell a large number of fruits, the best way is to use freight transport, which can greatly reduce the cost of transportation, but also in China to reduce the price, can sell the fruit. At this time, the price of imported fruits can be afforded by the general mid-range consumer group.
What we people in the northern region feel most is the price of Chilean cherries during the Spring Festival. Its price curve is basically the same as above.
Most of the fruits imported from abroad are famous and special varieties, and there is a certain regionality, other places can not be planted, the color, size, flavor, etc. of the fruit will be different, the price is high, some people will buy, the rarity is expensive!
5. Will imported fruits affect the development of the domestic fruit industry?
In the big picture, China has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, mainly us dollars, and cannot import neither high-end weapons nor high-tech products. Even chips and lithography machines can't be bought back, why do you want so many dollars? Why not import grain and fruit!
Imported grain and fruits can improve the dietary structure, increase the intake of meat, eggs and milk, mineral nutrition and vitamins, improve the living standards of the whole people, and ensure good health.
Of course, imported fruits will of course have a certain impact on domestic fruit sales, such as the import of cherries in the spring will have a great impact on the price of cherries cultivated in domestic greenhouses, especially this year's Chilean cherries production is expected to double, next year's domestic greenhouse cherries prices will be greatly reduced.
Domestic apples often appear to be slow to sell, however, the supermarket in the United States apples and other imported apples sell well, and the price is often more than double, the main reason is the good quality of imported apples. Of course, a large number of imported apples will affect the sales of domestically produced apples, and other fruits more or less have this problem.
However, in general, imported fruits will not have a greater impact on domestic fruits, mainly because:
● Imported fruits are often not available in the same kind of fruit in China, and they hit the time difference. For example, the import of mangoes, durians and other tropical fruits imported from Malaysia and other places, although China has them, but they have not yet matured, and when China's mangoes and durians are ripe, the number of imports will decline, and even long gone.
● China is located in the northern hemisphere, winter fruits are reduced, there are two festivals of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the demand for more fruits, and Chile, New Zealand, Australia and other countries are located in the southern hemisphere, China's winter is just when their summer fruits are on the market, they use airplanes, freighters, etc. to transport fruits to China, complementarity is very strong.
● Imported fruits are high-end products, ordinary people in China can not afford to eat, mainly high-end consumer groups for consumption, will not have much impact on most consumer groups, will not pose a threat to China's ordinary fruits.
China's fruit market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, mainly because there are too many of the same varieties and are not competitive. At the same time, China lacks high-quality fruit varieties and also lacks experience and patience in high-quality fruit production. China's fruits should be bigger and stronger, and only by increasing the yield and improving the quality can it be possible to open up the international market and produce higher returns for fruit farmers.
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