On November 8, local time, US President Biden will usher in the first midterm election in his term, which will set the tone for the rest of his term. At that time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and 36 governorships in 50 states will also face re-election. Among them, the re-election of the Senate and the House of Representatives of Congress has always been the "main event" of the midterm elections, and it is also the main battlefield for the contention between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. Nearly 250 million people in the United States are eligible to vote, but turnout hovered around 40 percent this year.
The Democratic Party now has slim majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives. According to CNN, the Republicans only need to win five more seats to regain the majority of the House of Representatives, and only need to win enough seats in New York State to achieve this goal. Moreover, Republicans need to win one more seat in the Senate to take control.
Usually, opposition voters are more motivated to vote than those of the ruling party under the US presidential system, and in most cases the opposition parties perform well in the midterm elections, increasing the number of seats they control in congressional elections. But a survey released in October by the Pew Research Center, a U.S. pollster, showed that voters' voting intentions were highly polarized, with bipartisan support in each state. 41 percent of voters said they supported the Democratic candidate in their district, while 40 percent supported the Republican candidate and 18 percent were unsure how they would vote.
According to a report released by the agency in August, bipartisan hostility to each other has climbed to unprecedented heights. In 2016, 47 percent of Republicans and 35 percent of Democrats said people on the other side of the party were more closed, dishonest, immoral and stupid than other Americans. In 2022, this percentage increased to 72% and 63%, respectively. The main reason why people from both parties choose to join their respective parties is still to believe that the other's policies are harmful to the country.
In addition, according to the British "Economist", the 2022 US midterm elections are the most "money-burning" non-presidential elections in the United States. AdImpact, a nonpartisan ad tracker in the United States, expects the midterm elections to cost $9.7 billion, 144 percent more than the record set in the 2018 midterm elections. This year's spending could even exceed the last presidential election. One reason is that the battle for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives is fierce, and both sides are betting heavily. It also reflects a long-standing trend toward polarizing political parties in the United States making politics increasingly a zero-sum game.
What are the midterm elections?
According to the U.S. Constitution, congressional elections are held every two years, at which time all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate will be re-elected. One of them coincides with the quadrennial presidential election and the other is held during the presidential term. The latter is precisely the upcoming "midterm elections".
Voters in all 50 U.S. states will elect members of the House of Representatives for a total of 435 seats, each of which is elected every two years. Source: Al Jazeera
There are 35 Senate seats up for grab this year, about a third of the 100 seats, with Republicans currently holding 50 seats, Democrats 48 seats, two other independents sitting in caucus meetings with Democrats, and Senate leader and Democratic Vice President Harris can cast a decisive vote in any 50-50 draw. Source: Al Jazeera
The midterm elections are a time for the American people to take and score the results of the president's two years of administration. The outcome of the election can have a direct impact on the remainder of the president's term in office, as well as the presidential election two years later. If the ruling party can hold a majority in Congress, the White House's policies will be easier to pass and implement. Conversely, the president will face many constraints in exercising his powers.
Historically, ruling parties have tended to be more likely to lose seats in midterm elections. The data shows that between 1934 and 2018, the ruling party successfully defended its seats in both houses only in 1934, 1998 and 2002.
In addition, this year's midterm elections will be the first in the United States after redistributing House seats and districts based on the results of the 2020 census. The redistribution of seats means that all states with increased or subtracted seats must redraw their districts before the midterm elections, creating more uncertainty about the outcome.
According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas added two more House seats, and Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon added one seat each. Instead, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost one seat each.
According to a report by the New York Times on September 30, state lawmakers from both Republicans and Democrats have completed the redrawing of their constituencies to ensure their majority to the greatest extent. The Washington Post pointed out that the Republican Party may gain more in this redistrict. The New York Times, on the other hand, believes that the Republican Party has less advantage than expected, and that both parties have a legitimate chance of gaining control of the House of Representatives.
Which campaigns are worth watching?
According to the BBC, there are six key campaigns that will largely determine the outcome of the US midterm elections:
GAORGIA — The traditionally conservative southern states will continue to attract attention this time after two upsets that led to Democrats taking control of the Senate.
PANYLVANIA – Stalemate and close in election campaigns have become the norm. The difference between winners and losers in the last two presidential elections was only 1%, and this time the Senate election could be fought to the end. One of those to watch is television personality Mehmet Oz, who is running for the Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
NEVADA — Another race, dubbed a "coin toss," is also evenly matched, with unpredictable victories.
OHIO — Also evenly matched, one candidate stands out: James David Vance, a 38-year-old venture capitalist and 38-year-old venture capitalist and author of "Hillybilly Elegy." He criticized Trump in 2016 as "shameful" and was once a representative of conservative intellectuals in the eyes of liberals, and his book was well received by the liberal media. But in this year's Republican primary, Vance claimed that Trump was "the greatest president he has ever met in his life", won Trump's support, and packaged him as a "MAGA Republican" who "went astray and eventually turned back." After Trump's statement, Vance's polls immediately surpassed the Republican opponents who also packaged themselves as Trumpists.
ARIZONA — Caught attention for the prevalence of conspiracy theories. Blake Masters, 36, a Republican Senate candidate, has publicly promoted claims of alleged "fraud in the 2020 election." He believes in America first, stands in the nationalist camp, opposes aid to Ukraine, and lashes out at tech giants. He faces a Democratic opponent against Navy Capt. Mark Kelly, a former NASA astronaut who is seeking re-election.
Wisconsin — Evenly matched, sharply opposed, traditionally decided by narrow margins, and a state in which the Democratic Party has poured a lot of effort. Republican Senator Ron Johnson, 67, similarly argued that the 2020 election was fraudulent, downplaying the Capitol riot and even suggesting that mouthwash kill the coronavirus.
How did Biden answer the questionnaire?
In 2021, Biden delivered on two important economic promises: a $1.9 trillion COVID Relief Act and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill passed with bipartisan support, ABC News reported on January 19, 2022.
Since his first day in office, Biden has made controlling the epidemic his top priority and has ambitiously introduced a series of economic and medical assistance programs. In March 2021, two months after he took office, Congress passed the Covid Relief Act – seen as a landmark achievement of Biden's first term and one of the largest economic stimulus measures in US history.
On the 58th day of his presidency, Biden completed the goal of 100 million doses of the new crown vaccine in the United States within 100 days, and raised it to 200 million doses in 100 days, which was also achieved on the 92nd day. According to the White House briefing, more than 200 million Americans have been vaccinated in Biden's first year in office, making it the largest and fastest vaccination effort in U.S. history.
Moreover, despite numerous concessions and negotiations, Biden's second major legislative move, the infrastructure bill, was agreed in June to invest $1.2 trillion over the next eight years.
However, the remaining major legislative processes of the Biden administration have been met with a long tug-of-war.
According to ABC, Biden's "Build Back Better" plan and two voting rights bills passed the House of Representatives during his first year in office, but stalled in the Senate. Similarly, policies such as universal preschool, expanded child tax credits, historic investments in climate policy, and increased health insurance have all been blocked by Republicans.
On the old problems of American society, such as immigration, gun control, and race, it is difficult for the Biden administration to do anything in the face of divided public opinion.
According to Pew Research Center data in October, Biden's approval rating slipped as his agenda hit a wall in Congress and the haste and chaos of the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, according to data from the Pew Research Center in October. According to the latest Pew Research Center survey, at present, only 38% of adults support Biden, and the disapproval rate is as high as 59%, of which 40% express strong disapproval. This figure is on par with former US President Donald Trump's support on the eve of the midterm elections, far lower than George W. Bush's 61 percent and George H.W. Bush's 56 percent. At the same time, Biden's party approval rating has also fallen from 93% in April 2021 to 71% currently.
What are the factors that influence the outcome of the election?
According to the Pew Center survey, the economy is the top concern of the American people in 2022. 79% said economic factors largely influence where their midterm election votes go. Only 17 percent of U.S. adults said the country's economy was in good shape, little changed from 13 percent in July.
The survey found that inflation remains a major economic problem in the United States. Three of the most closely watched indicators are related to commodity prices – food and consumer goods (73%), gasoline and energy (69%) and housing costs (60%).
Most polls show the economy as a top concern for American voters. Source: Al Jazeera
Data released by the Federal Reserve in August and September this year showed that since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States in February 2020, the US inflation rate has continued to rise, reaching 9.1% in June 2022, a 40-year high. While the Fed has taken steps to try to bring inflation back to 2%, high inflation is eroding consumers' wages, savings, and purchasing power. Against the backdrop of soaring inflation, a difficult housing market, and a downturn in financial markets, US consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate, full of unease and dissatisfaction. A diachronic study by the University of Michigan shows that American consumers' confidence in their country's economic situation is at an all-time low. Since both the White House and both houses of Congress are controlled by the Democratic Party, whether or not the current economic difficulties facing the United States are the result of the Biden administration's policies, voters will therefore assign the responsibility for the economic difficulties to the current administration.
In addition, a Pew Center survey shows that there are also people who are highly concerned about the poor employment environment, the downturn in the stock market, and the shortage of products.
According to a July 15 briefing by the U.S. State Department, 22 million people lost their jobs in the United States in the two months after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. While the Biden administration lowered the unemployment rate to 3.6% in June 2022, near a 50-year low in the United States, labor shortages are dampening job growth and the number of job openings remains at an all-time high. The latest data shows that in April 2022, the total number of job openings in the United States was 11.4 million, far exceeding the 6 million unemployed, creating huge difficulties for employers to recruit employees.
Source: Federal Reserve
The briefing also said that a series of decisions of the US Supreme Court will also affect the outcome of the midterm elections, or adversely affect the Republican Party.
One of the "political legacies" left by former US President Trump was the nomination of three conservative justices during his administration, which upset the long-standing balance of the Supreme Court and pushed the Supreme Court's decision to the "right", which on June 24 overturned Roe v. Wade, a jurisprudence that established abortion rights at the federal level nearly half a century ago. The briefing said the move could lead to the loss of a large number of female voters in the Republican Party.
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of two serious mass shootings in New York and Texas, on June 23, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York State, making its first major ruling on firearms in decades.
The Pew Center's latest survey also bolsters the briefing's inferences. Gun policy (57 percent) and abortion (56 percent) were listed as high topics by the majority of registered voters. Education (64%), health care (63%), energy policy (61%) and violent crime (61%) are also high voters' concerns.
What happens next?
After the US midterm elections, all attention will be focused on the 2024 presidential election. But that could be a repeat of 2020 — according to US media reports, both Biden and Trump have hinted in recent days that they will prepare to run again. Sources said the Trump team may have chosen November 14 as the date for Trump's official announcement of his candidacy.
In addition, newcomers from all sides who are participating in the general election for the first time are also expected to shine in the election campaign. In addition to the Nov. 8 congressional elections, 36 of the 50 states will hold gubernatorial races, of which 20 incumbent governors are Republicans. At the beginning of the presidential campaign, the governor played an important role in supporting his party's candidates and overseeing the state's elections.
The devolution of congressional control and the arrival of a new group of governors could have a significant impact on the 2024 presidential race.