Survivor bias, the dead man will not tell you how he died. A living person can tell you how he lives.
During World War II, in order to strengthen the fighters and improve the survival chances of the aircraft, the British and americans analyzed the bullet marks of the returning fighters and found that the bullet marks were concentrated in the wing parts, while the cockpit and fuel tank rarely had bullet marks.
So they decided to reinforce the wing armor.
But statisticians have pointed out that the samples we collect now are all samples of returning aircraft, and most of them have been shot in the wings.
This shows that even if the wing is hit, the aircraft has a high chance of successfully returning.
And those that did not return, it is likely that the bullets were hit by the parts of these returning aircraft that did not have any bullet marks, such as the cockpit and fuel tank.
Therefore, it is necessary to reinforce those areas that do not have breaks.
This is survivor bias.
The word originated from the ancient Roman thinker Cicero, an atheist.
Once when he was going to go to sea, his friend told him to worship God, and worshiping God would ensure his safety in going to sea, because the people who had worshiped God had returned alive.
So Cicero said you call back those who weren't alive, and I asked them if they had ever worshipped God.
What we see is not necessarily a fact of high probability.
In today's information-rich world, we see too many successes, failures, and information of interest that makes our eyes light up.
But this information is only a certain point that survives in the more massive amount of facts and can attract people's attention.
These things, and what happens all the time, are really a drop in the ocean.
That is to say, what we see, or leave an impression on, survives in our general attention.
Most of the rest are covered by more attractive things before they appear in people's field of vision. There is also a part that is ignored by our limited energy.
What survived was that people formed deviations in the process of understanding things. What you think you see is what is happening, at least with a high probability.
The truth is that what you see is only what you can see, or what society lets you see. What is invisible is likely to be a high probability event.
The Dunning-Kruger effect, the cognitive curve
This curve is the conclusion of a psychological experiment conducted by David Dunning and Justin Krueger in 1999.
This curve illustrates:
People with poor abilities often overestimate their skill level;
People with poor abilities cannot correctly recognize the level of other people who really have this skill;
People with poor ability are unable to recognize and face up to their own shortcomings, and the extreme extent of their deficiencies;
If people with poor abilities are able to significantly improve their ability levels with proper training, they will eventually recognize and acknowledge their previous level of incompetence.
In layman's terms, it is the four realms of cognition,
Don't know that you don't know, know that you don't know, know that you know, don't know that you know.
How do survivor biases combine with cognitive curves?
I didn't know if what I saw survived. die.
Know you don't know survivor bias. scram. (Knowing that you don't know specific things, called not knowing)
Know that you know survivor bias. It is possible to think more and find out what the remaining problems that have not survived are.
Not knowing yourself knows survivor bias. Systematic thinking has penetrated deep into the marrow.
The most terrible thing is not knowing that what you see is surviving.
But anyone who sees something that tends to their own cognition feels right. Punch punch.
But anyone who sees something different from what they know thinks is wrong. Kill kill kill.
As a result, it is likely that he does not even know how he died.
Or, I don't know how I died, and I died a very painful death...
To avoid this situation, we must first know these two basic theories, and use this to guide ourselves, so that we can clearly understand that the larger the circle of our cognition, the more things we do not know.
Only by realizing this will we continue to look for the boundaries of our own cognition and expand our boundaries.
With this attitude to do things, you will know your own thinking, decision-making, may have a different impact. Will think more, from different levels, from different angles to verify, and then come to appropriate and correct conclusions.
Anything is possible...
(Eh, old Zhang, you know not?)
I know you don't know I know you don't know...
What do you say, you don't run! Looking for a circle to go to... ）
(See you inside)
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