In the past month, the Philippines has been particularly active on the South China Sea issue. Not only frequently provoking China, but also trying to use tactics on Ren'ai Jiao. The relations between international powers involved behind it are even more complex and delicate.
#### I. The Philippines' South China Sea "Operations"
The frequency of "verbal cannons" on the South China Sea issue has increased markedly. This makes one wonder why the Philippines is suddenly so active in expressing its position, calling on other countries to step in, and even willing to engage in friction with major powers such as China.
Not only that, the Philippines has also invited the support of the United States, Japan and Australia. However, when the United States and Australia cheered for the Philippines, the Philippines announced its withdrawal from joint military exercises, which caused an uproar in the international community. This move has undoubtedly embarrassed the country that originally stood for it, and some commentators believe that the Philippines is "stepping in".
#### Second, the contradiction between the Philippines and China
Since the illegal invasion of Second Thomas Jiao, the contradictions between the Philippines and China have intensified. China resolutely dismissed this, believing that the Philippine actions undermined the reconciliation efforts between the two countries. And the Philippines, after the incident, continued to hype, trying to win sympathy for itself.
The United States took the opportunity to intervene to fight for its allies, stressing that "China violates international law." However, China responded resolutely, emphasizing its position and accusing the Philippines of provoking incidents.
For discerning people, the true intention of the Philippine side to transport construction materials to Ren'ai Jiao is very obvious. The Philippines' approach of trying to change the status quo in the South China Sea through illegal means is obviously not acceptable to China. China's response has shown a certain degree of restraint, but the Philippines does not seem to value this opportunity.
#### Third, President Marcos's radical stance
Recently, Philippine President Marcos' repeated statements and actions have undoubtedly deepened the rift between China and the Philippines. He denied the agreement with China and announced the cancellation of a number of projects by Chinese companies in the Philippines, which is undoubtedly challenging China's bottom line. More seriously, he even threatened the Philippines with a military response if China acted.
The Philippines' hard-line attitude has attracted a lot of attention internationally. Many analysts see Mr. Marcos's approach as preparing for the upcoming election and winning domestic support by showing a tough attitude.
### The entanglement and motivation behind the military exercises between the Philippines and China, China, Japan, and Australia
#### First, Marcos's rise to power and changes in Sino-Philippine relations
During the Duterte presidency, China-Philippines relations made a historic breakthrough. From the disputes in the South China Sea in the early years to the gradual warming of the two sides, the relations between the two countries have reached a new high. But since Marcos took office, the situation has changed rapidly.
Marcos's foreign policy is clearly more inclined to deepen cooperation with the US-dominated West, as evidenced by the four military bases it has opened to the U.S. side and allowing opposition lawmakers to visit Taiwan. These actions not only clashed with China's diplomatic position, but also aroused China's vigilance.
#### Second, China's diplomatic strategy and intentions
China has always maintained a constructive attitude towards peace and stability in the South China Sea. Despite frictions in China-Philippines relations, China remains committed to peace, cooperation and development. The reception held to commemorate the 96th anniversary of the founding of the army is also aimed at promoting military exchanges and mutual trust between the two countries.
Inviting the Philippines to conduct "joint military exercises" is a very clear signal to tell the international community that China has no intention of entering into a military conflict with the Philippines, but hopes to strengthen the relationship between the two countries through cooperation.
#### Third, the military strategy and intentions of the Philippines
But at this critical juncture, the Philippines' attitude seems somewhat ambiguous. On the one hand, it accepted China's "olive branch", while on the other hand, it planned to hold a "joint military exercise" with the United States, Japan and Australia, and the strategy and intention behind it are worth exploring in depth.
The Philippines' choice to cooperate with the United States, Japan and Australia to hold military exercises this time is likely to balance its position on the South China Sea issue, and military cooperation with these three major powers can also win more strategic support for the Philippines.
#### Fourth, the truth behind the cancellation of military exercises
When the military exercise was about to begin, the large ships and carrier-based aircraft sent by the United States, Japan and Australia were obviously beyond the scope of the Philippines. The Philippine side's reason for canceling "lack of suitable ships" seems reasonable, but there may be more complex factors involved behind it.
First, the Philippines may not see its position in the exercise as important as its long-term cooperation with the three countries. Second, the purpose of the exercises may not be exclusively aimed at China, and the Philippines needs to maintain relations with China and avoid direct military confrontation with China.
**In-depth analysis of the "real intentions" of the Philippines' withdrawal**
When the Philippines opted out, the first thing that everyone felt was probably a surprise. To the outside world, this seems to be a "retreat" move, but after thinking about it, everything makes sense. Here, we take an in-depth look at the reasons behind the Philippines' choice:
**One: The real intention behind the clever excuse**
First, looking at the ships of the Philippine Navy, we found that most of the displacement is under 1,000 tons, which is relatively small. Chinese aircraft carriers, for example, can have a displacement of hundreds of thousands of tons. This apparent discrepancy lends some legitimacy to the Philippines' reasons for withdrawal.
Such a statement can also be seen as a hidden strategy. On the one hand, it highlights the Philippines' arms shortages and may imply requests for assistance from outside countries such as the United States; On the other hand, it also provides the Philippines with an irrefutable reason to withdraw, reducing tensions with China.
**2: Strategic Considerations and Self-Protection**
The policies and trends of the Biden administration in Asia are closely watched by Asian countries. History has proved that in the game between big countries, small and medium-sized countries are often easy to become victims. India, Japan and South Korea are all aware of their place in the great power game and have adopted corresponding strategies.
The Philippines has been relatively smart in this regard. It realized that following the United States could make it a target. Therefore, in this environment, the Philippines has chosen to withdraw for its own security and stability.
**3: Revisiting the relationship with China**
After this incident, Marcos Jr. urgently appointed Locsin as a "special envoy for China affairs", which is undoubtedly a clear signal that the Philippines wants to strengthen relations with China. As a man with a strong diplomatic background, Locsin is undoubtedly the best candidate for the role.
But is the improvement in relations between the Philippines and China solely due to bilateral considerations? Probably more than that. As ambassador to Britain, Locsin's dual status may suggest a certain Western expectation of the Philippines' relationship with China.
conclusion
All parties should remain vigilant against this "double-faced" strategy of the Philippines. If the Philippines continues to try to work with the United States to provoke China, it could be at greater risk. But if the Philippines can build genuine mutual trust and cooperation with its neighbors, it will gain a stronger position in regional politics.