The Minister of Defense spoke harshly, the Foreign Minister asked for dialogue, and the Philippines is singing a double reed to China again? It's not a big deal to watch the excitement, and US politicians suggested that Biden send troops to Ren'ai Jiao, aren't you really afraid that the situation in the South China Sea will get out of control? More details of the confrontation between China and the Philippines have been exposed, and the Philippines dares to shoot, or it may be wiped out by the Chinese Coast Guard!
Two Philippine ministers sang a duet and tried to "boil frogs in warm water" in the South China Sea
On June 17, the Philippine Navy special forces caused a serious dangerous contact accident in the waters of Ren'ai Jiao, China, because the Philippine side deliberately attacked Ren'ai Jiao and tried to deliver illegal materials to the stranded landing ship Sierra Madre, resulting in a collision between Chinese and Philippine ships, the Chinese coast guard finally succeeded in stopping the illegal actions of the Philippines, confiscated the guns carried by the Filipino soldiers, and seized their speedboats, for which the Philippines paid the price of seven injuries and one serious injury.
After the incident, the attitude of the Philippine side went through several rounds of changes.
At the beginning, the Philippine side tried to pull the United States as a backing and China to argue in the air, but after the US aircraft carrier left the South China Sea, the Philippines quickly admitted that the chairman of the Philippine Maritime Commission, Bel Samein, declared on the 21st that the incident was likely to be a misunderstanding or an accident, and the Philippines did not consider citing the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty because of this.
This attitude has led the outside world to believe that the incident is coming to an end, and the Philippines should conclude the incident with a dialogue attitude to avoid the escalation of the situation in the South China Sea.
However, unexpectedly, under the premise that the Maritime Committee has come forward to calm down the incident, there are still some politicians in the Philippines who want to stir up the situation and sing a double reed to the outside world.
According to US media reports on the 24th, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro said at a recent media briefing that on the 17th, the incident near Ren'ai Jiao was neither a misunderstanding nor an accident, and the Philippine side did not seek to downplay the incident, but defined it as China deliberately preventing the Philippines from completing its mission, and the Philippines will continue to send supplies to the Sierra Madre.
This is tantamount to completely reversing Bel Jamin's statement, reversing the situation in the South China Sea, which is already on a cooling trend, back to the track of heating up, and targeting China in a confrontational manner.
After Teodoro finished singing the white face, Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo quickly jumped out and sang with a red face.
On June 25, at a hearing before the Philippine Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Manalo asserted that the Philippines wants to engage in dialogue with China on the South China Sea issue to resolve differences, and that confidence-building measures should be developed between the two countries to ease tensions and seek to manage the maritime differences between the two countries.
He also revealed that there is already a mechanism for bilateral consultations with China on the South China Sea, and that the two countries held a working group meeting last week to prepare for a possible meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea in July.
Seeing this, many people who are familiar with the Philippines should have guessed that the old problems of the Philippines have been committed again.
Over the past few years, the Philippines has used red-faced and white-faced tactics against China on more than one occasion, while sending a signal of détente to China through diplomatic channels, dragging China to the negotiating table, and engaging in unfruitful dialogue with the Philippines.
Since then, the Philippine military has taken a hardline stance and continued to provoke in the South China Sea, taking advantage of China's preference for dialogue to resolve issues in order to advance its aggressive policy in the South China Sea.
It's just that the Philippines' wishful thinking is still too early, and China has already figured out the Philippine style of saying one thing and doing another, and the original trust between the two countries has been exhausted by Marcos Jr., and if you want to negotiate, you must show sincerity, and if you want to continue to be tough on China, you will inevitably have to bear the consequences.
China will not allow the Philippines to expand in the South China Sea because of its dialogue, and if the Philippines dares to send troops to invade the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, China will inevitably make the Philippines pay the price again, as it did on June 17.
U.S. politicians are frantically arguing that Biden send troops to Ren'ai Jiao
While the Philippines itself is eager to try, some extraterritorial forces are also fanning the flames behind the scenes, trying to get the United States to directly intervene in the South China Sea and provoke a new round of maritime conflict.
A few days ago, Fox News published an article by US diplomat Newsom, in which he made wild remarks about the Sino-Philippine Ren'ai Jiao incident, claiming that the absence of the United States in this incident has threatened Washington's reputation as a reliable ally, and he suggested that the United States send warships and military aircraft to escort Philippine ships and provide military support if necessary, and that the United States can personally provide protection and guard the Philippine warships illegally sitting on Ren'ai Jiao.
He even said that if he wanted to fight, then he would fight.
This is clearly encouraging the Biden administration to adopt a more aggressive policy in the South China Sea, but such fantasies are hardly realized.
First of all, the current Biden administration does not want to conflict with China in sensitive areas around China, the military strength and economic size of China and the United States are too large, once the two countries conflict, it will inevitably cause global repercussions, and the United States itself will be in a dilemma, which will bring huge vote losses to Biden and will also cause a decline in the development of the United States.
Second, the Philippines is only a proxy for the United States, and for many years, the United States has only pushed its proxies to the forefront, and itself is operating behind the scenes, and there has never been a case of war with a country of the same level of overall strength in order to protect the proxy, and it is unlikely that the United States will end up in person until the value of the Philippines is completely drained.
Moreover, now that China has demonstrated its firm determination to defend its territorial sovereignty, and the United States has received a very clear message that China will not give up its sovereign rights for the sake of peace, the United States' previous tactics are no longer applicable, and further policy adjustments are needed, and the conditions for war are not met.
Finally, even if the United States is willing to intervene in the South China Sea, given that the Chinese military has established a well-established regional denial and anti-access capability, it may be difficult for the United States and the Philippines to achieve ultimate victory in a real conflict, which will inevitably result in the loss of influence in Southeast Asia and the destruction of the Philippines.
Experts found out the details of the confrontation, and if the Philippine army dared to shoot, it would be completely annihilated
Regarding the possible consequences of the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Jie Wen-chi, a well-known political commentator in Taiwan, said on a program on June 25 that the mainland is now determined to fight a war, and if the Philippines dares to shoot, it will be completely annihilated.
He cited a detail, that is, when there was a maritime contact between China and the Philippines on June 17, Philippine Navy soldiers had already raised their guns against the Chinese Coast Guard, but at that time the Chinese Coast Guard did not flinch, but shouted to lower its guns, boarded and inspected the Philippine ships, and finally confiscated the guns of Philippine soldiers.
He also believes that China's series of actions have stunned the Philippines and have had a great impact on the US-Philippine mutual defense relationship, directly testing the bottom line of the United States, and proving that the series of exercises between the two countries are useless and cannot see the real chapter at all.
This series of analyses is quite reasonable, in a war, whether there is a firm determination will have a very big impact on the war situation, and the United States at best only wants to use the Philippines as a pawn to interfere with China's normal development; And the Philippines only wants to steal illegal benefits, and has no determination to fight to the death with China. In this case, once a war breaks out, the Philippines will inevitably be completely defeated by China, and the United States and the Philippines will not be able to achieve a real victory in the South China Sea.