Nandu reporters noticed that a few days ago, near the end of the e-commerce promotion season, rumors about the increase in express delivery prices continued. First, at the end of September, there were rumors that the express price of a certain line brand had been raised in mid-September, of which the Jieyang area of Guangdong had implemented a price increase in September, with an increase of 2~3 Mao, saying that other parts of Guangdong and Zhejiang would follow suit. A few days ago, it was reported that an express delivery outlet in Shenzhen, Guangdong issued a notice that the express season is coming, and due to the rise in costs, it will increase the first increase of 0.15 yuan / ticket for express shipments from October 7.
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On social networks, some express delivery practitioners also posted price increase announcements received by outlets in some regions from different brands, saying that due to the impact of rising headquarters costs and rising costs such as labor and transportation, in order to meet the peak season, reserve personnel, and maintain the stability of the national network, the price will be raised from October 1, 2023 after receiving the notice from the headquarters.
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The Nandu reporter consulted the relevant person in charge of some express delivery companies in Guangdong, and all replied that they had not heard of the price increase of the specific outlets, but also said, "Some outlets may be appropriately raised during the peak period, because the express delivery price has been low." "If there is, it is also an adjustment for e-commerce customers, and there is no impact on bulk customers."
Nandu reporters have previously interviewed and learned that every year on the Spring Festival and Double 11 express delivery into the peak season, in order to cope with the rise in the cost of venue, transportation, labor and other costs during the peak season, express delivery companies often issue price adjustment announcements from the headquarters level to adjust express delivery costs (more in the range of a few cents ~ 1 yuan / piece, and will not directly affect the consumer's shipping costs), the specific range is mostly implemented by local service outlets according to the guidance and suggestions of the headquarters and combined with the actual situation. As far as the whole country is concerned, the "grain-producing areas" such as Guangdong and Zhejiang with large express delivery volumes are generally the "pioneers" of price adjustment. However, the Nandu reporter noted that up to now, the headquarters of major express delivery companies have not issued price adjustment notices at the public level.
"We wrote it when we signed the contract, starting in October or November, and it will go up in December and January, one by one. At the end of the year, the peak surcharge is and the Spring Festival is the resource adjustment fee. An e-commerce seller in Guangdong told Nandu reporters that unless there are some strategic large customers, they may have a year-round price, but this is very rare.
According to the business data released by express delivery companies, since the beginning of this year, the single ticket income of the express delivery industry has once again returned to the pre-epidemic decline trend, and the "price war" has a great tendency to make a comeback, in March ~ August, Shentong, Yuantong, Yunda's single ticket income have maintained a negative growth state, and there is an expansion trend, Shentong, Yunda have hit a new low in August. According to the semi-annual reports of each enterprise, optimizing the structure of goods, increasing the proportion of lightweight small items, and adjusting settlement rules are the main reasons for the general decline in the price of express single tickets.
However, some insiders revealed to the Nandu reporter that the "grain production area" is still very common to grab the amount of low-price, but the price reduction is not as obvious as before. Some companies continue to strive for greater market share by lowering prices, further compressing the profit margins of grassroots outlets.
"ASP (price per ticket) decline, in essence, in addition to objective reasons, is that we distribute profits or give them to the pick-up at the shipping end." Lai Meisong, founder, chairman and CEO of ZTO Express Group, said in the second quarter earnings call, "Usually in September and October of the year, due to seasonal factors, the business volume enters a period of high growth, and the express price will be about 10% higher than in July and August, and the price will rise further in November because more resources are invested." "While volume-for-price behavior remains, the dynamics of the industry are evolving very clearly, and market share gained through low-price competition is often unsustainable, and in many cases, the damage outweighs the benefits."
A few days ago, the "September 2023 China Express Development Index Report" released by the State Post Bureau showed that in the first three quarters of this year, it is expected that the express delivery business volume and business revenue will increase by about 16.4% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, far exceeding the level of the same period last year. Since March, the industry's monthly business volume has reached 10 billion pieces, business income has exceeded 90 billion yuan, since September, mooncakes, fresh food, native products and other delivery demand is strong, September 18~27, 10 consecutive days of daily business volume has exceeded 400 million pieces.
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In this context, the "Double One September Express Price Index (EPI)" released by Double One Consulting on October 10 showed that the express price index in September was 91.23, up 1.63 from August and reaching the highest value so far in March this year. From the perspective of categories, e-commerce parts, bulk parts, and commercial parts have all increased by different ranges. Among them, e-commerce pieces rose by 0.05 yuan, bulk parts rose by 0.1 yuan, and commercial parts increased by 0.05 yuan. In terms of subregions, prices in "grain-producing areas" rose in September, led by Guangdong Jieyang. From the perspective of ticket range, the price of large customers with more than 1,000 votes has increased significantly.
"It's hard to stand up without raising prices. Franchisees are loss-making. Some express delivery company practitioners analyzed to Nandu reporters, "E-commerce is a batch of pieces, and the price is very low." In order to prevent the loss of customers, they dare not rise a lot. But the key is that the price increase must benefit the courier so that the outlet can be stable. Some people believe that in the context of "roll service" and "roll timeliness" in this year, door-to-door delivery has become an important indicator for express delivery companies to maintain customer stickiness and participate in market competition, and enterprises will also pay more costs for this, and must also invest more in maintaining network stability, user mental establishment, courier incentive mechanism, etc.
Written by: Nandu reporter Fu Xiaoling and Huang Pei