Property market direction: After the stimulation of buying a house is ineffective, there are unusual signals in the property market

The current property market has not improved.

And at the dawn of winter, we did not even wait for a new round of policies.

Hmm... The reasons are not analyzed first.

But there are some new changes, I have to disclose a little to you first.

If you look at these lines together, you may find a lot of unusual signals.

Let's start with a pre-National Day event, that is, the deposit special forces are dispatched to look everywhere for a product with an interest rate higher than 3%.

Many people even fly to Hong Kong to open an account and save money, just for a deposit interest rate of more than 5%.

Why fight so much?

To put it bluntly, it is not that the major mainland banks have lowered deposit interest rates again and again this year, and now the three-year maturity is about 2.6%.

In such a comparison, the interest difference with Hong Kong came out, and it would be a fool to have money and not earn, so the deposit special forces were dispatched.

Big parents are encouraging you to invest and spend, but you're running around the country for higher interest rates.

It's really divisive to think about.

Guess what's next?

Interest on deposits continued to fall.

I used to look for a 4% fixed interest rate, now I look for 3%, and then it may be a 2% fixed deposit that is robbed.

Because if interest rates are not cut, banks are not happy.

Everyone knows that part of the bank's profits is the interest rate difference.

Now in response to the call to reduce financing costs for enterprises, many operating loans have been reduced to less than 3%, and the lowest has reached 2.8%-2.9%.

If the deposit rate is still higher than the loan rate, the bank will have to lose money, so this spread space will continue to narrow.

What's more, there are well-known reasons, M2 growth has remained in double digits for more than 10 consecutive months, but everyone has not yet felt the coming of inflation, because money is silted in the bank and cannot come out.

Therefore, to reduce the interest rate on the loan to encourage you to invest, the interest rate on the deposit will continue to be reduced accordingly.

Everyone thinks that as long as you lie flat, they can't cut you?

The average Chinese household actually has only two ways to store their wealth: a house and a bank account.

It's okay not to buy a house, but the money always has to be saved, right?

I know that most people's mentality has begun to stabilize than the joy of crit, otherwise the gold would not have been bought before the holiday.

It's such a thing anyway, the key is how to deal with it.

Many people will say, I am going to say that sentence again, buy the core assets of first- and second-tier cities.

If the interest rate on deposits is reduced, it will comprehensively affect the money bags of Singaporeans.

There is another thing that also affects most people, and a small number of them have to be forced to run.

On Thursday morning, according to CCTV and other media reports, since the state announced that the transformation of urban villages in super-large and mega-cities has been "steadily advanced", 162 urban village transformation projects have been put into storage.

Turning the clock back a little further, remember that in July it was proposed to promote the transformation of urban villages in megacities.

It was originally known as shed reform 2.0, and the news a few days ago told you that this trick is about to start landing.

Shed reform is a big killer of the property market rescue in 2015, and it is also the driving force behind the soaring housing prices.

Although we do not carry out comprehensive shantytown reform now, we have 22 megacities with a population of more than 5 million in the mainland, and the amount of funds released is also very terrible.

We all know that the economy is down, so increasing infrastructure investment is also one of the means of stimulus.

Assuming that all of these 162 cities are restarted, each investment of 6 billion yuan, that is 972 billion yuan, plus other renovations and renovation improvements, the amount will only be larger.

The transformation of urban villages can not only release money, provide employment opportunities, drive consumption, and finally increase taxes, driving the positive cycle of the city's economy, killing multiple birds with one stone.

In addition, there is a very noteworthy change this time.

At a teleconference on the renovation of urban villages held on July 28, a demand was put forward that "net land transfer must be carried out."

"Net land transfer" refers to the demolition and reconstruction of urban villages, after which the local government first collects and stores the land, and then lists it for transfer or auction to the developer in the form of clean land, and then rebuilds.

In the past, everyone was afraid that the old reform cycle in urban villages would be too long, and the short-term effect on economic growth would be very limited.

But what if the local government takes the land first?

This is much more efficient than the developer's negotiation, and will directly reduce the time for old modifications!

Once the shed reform 2.0 is implemented, the original villagers of these 22 megacities will be the first to receive benefits, and those who have assets in these cities will also take off.

In the end, it can only drive those who are in third- and fourth-tier cities to accompany the run.

The signal in July has long been released, there are fewer and fewer investment opportunities in third- and fourth-tier cities, and real estate will only be real estate in megacities in the future.

Whether you accept it or not, the direction of things will not be shifted by the will of the individual.

We are all in the game, either running or running.

When Mainland Qing returned to my hometown, I was glad that I bought the house early, selling it 9 months early, and selling it for 90,000 yuan more.

As early as July, we blew the trumpet to remind everyone to hurry up and change houses, even if you see a loss in the short term, but the longer you hold, the more you may lose, and sometimes the stop loss itself is also a kind of profit.

And every opportunity for this replacement in the future, the cost of buying the wrong one is too large, don't buy a house as you like, don't say that it doesn't matter if you just need to go up or down, no one's money is blown by the wind, who doesn't work hard to make money, who wants to see their house drop in price.

Finally, one more news.

This news will also affect everyone.

Recently, you should have seen a lot of news about the issuance of bonds in various places.

On October 9, Inner Mongolia issued 66.32 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds to repay the arrears of enterprises for which the government is responsible for repayment, and the special refinancing bonds were officially restarted.

Guangxi plans to issue 49.8 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, and the investment instructions for the funds raised are mentioned in the issuance of local government refinancing bonds to repay existing debts.

Chongqing plans to issue RMB42.19 billion of special refinancing bonds.

As of October 11, nine provinces and cities have disclosed a total of about 410.3 billion yuan of special refinancing bond issuance plans.

The so-called special refinancing bonds are actually issued to repay the old.

The purpose is to support local development, stabilize the local economy and prevent risks.

Didn't many people ask me before, how will I pay back so many Z affairs at that time?

Borrowing the old and rolling over the old is done all over the world.

Also How to dilute debt? Isn't the last big move inflation?

In the era of inflation, cash will depreciate, debt will depreciate, and at the cost of this time, asset prices will rise.

The words can only be said here, and then it is a little sensitive, or I came to listen to it in the live broadcast room behind closed doors, and it was clearer and more thorough.

Maybe at this point, you start to feel a little bit of it.

Many things do not need to directly save the property market, and it is possible to achieve the ultimate goal.

Whether it is shed reform 2.0, or bond issuance, or reducing deposit interest, we will find the hidden logic behind it.

Some things, although the course of history is not the same, but the laws are the same.

In 10 years and 20 years, you will find that the same people who hold high-quality assets will become the winners.

To put it bluntly, I can understand that the general people are pessimistic right now, and that's because faith has been shattered.

Many people habitually believe when they see it, but by the time you see it, it's actually time for all the tricks to have an effect.

I won't say more, smart people know better how to plan ahead.