The price of refined oil rose for the sixth time in the year, and it cost about 8 yuan to fill up a box

Interface News

2024-06-27 17:02Interface News official account

Interface News Reporter | Dai Jingjing

Domestic refined oil prices ushered in the sixth increase in the year.

On June 27, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since 24 o'clock, domestic gasoline prices have been raised by 210 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have been raised by 200 yuan/ton. In terms of price increases, No. 92 gasoline was raised by 0.16 yuan, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel were both increased by 0.17 yuan.

The cost of fuel for private car owners and logistics companies will increase. Based on a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, it will cost about $8 more to fill up a tank of petrol; For large logistics and transportation vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost will increase by about 6.8 yuan per 100 kilometers on average.

This is the thirteenth refined oil price adjustment in 2024 and the sixth increase this year. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil in the first half of 2024 will show a pattern of "six rises, four declines and three strandings".

According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information, in the first half of this year, the domestic standard gasoline and diesel were raised by 590 yuan/ton and 570 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a cumulative increase of 0.46 yuan for No. 92 gasoline, and 0.49 yuan and 0.48 yuan for No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel respectively.

In this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices showed a volatile upward trend.

"At the beginning of this pricing cycle, the market is generally optimistic about the demand prospects, with U.S. crude oil and gasoline and diesel inventories declining across the board, and crude oil prices rising."

Xu Na, an analyst of refined oil products at Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that the subsequent rise in the US dollar exchange rate dragged down oil prices in the short term, but the geopolitical disturbance and the demand for self-driving travel in summer supported crude oil prices, and the rate of change of crude oil has always been at a positive high level. As of the close of trading on June 26, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 4.91% on the tenth working day.

As of the close of trading in the early morning of June 27, Beijing time, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures front-month contract rose 0.09% to $80.90 per barrel; Brent crude futures settled 0.28% higher at $85.25 a barrel.

Image source: Longzhong Information

The next round of retail prices of refined oil products may continue to rise.

Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that looking forward to the market outlook, the positive atmosphere of OPEC+ production cuts continues, the traditional fuel consumption season in the United States has entered the peak period, the seasonal benefits have been enhanced, and the instability of the geopolitical situation has increased unabated. The fundamental positive factors are still strong, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is more probable.

"Based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start with a slight upward trend," Li said.

OPEC announced on June 2 that in order to maintain the stability and balance of the international oil market, eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, decided to continue to voluntarily reduce production in the third quarter of this year, with a total production cut of 3.86 million barrels per day.

Xu Na also believes that the peak demand period in summer may continue, and the market expectation is optimistic, and the probability of high fluctuations in crude oil in the short term is large. At the same time, she pointed out that it is necessary to be wary of the subsequent release of oil demand data, and once the market finds that the reality continues to be weak, oil prices are likely to face a pullback.

According to the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, the next price adjustment window will open at 24 o'clock on July 11, 2024.

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