Weekend Securities丨The external environment warmed up, focusing on the repair opportunities of the six major industries

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Financial Investment News reporter Lin Ke

With the continuous recovery of the external environment, the market expectations of A-shares have also begun to gradually improve, and the market has gradually increased since the beginning of November, and the index has also shown signs of breaking away from the bottom area. Some analysts pointed out that the recent high-level interactions between China and the United States, and the two sides have released friendly signals, which is conducive to improving the confidence of the domestic market. In addition, there are signs of improvement in the economic and trade relations between the two countries.

In fact, with the unexpected issuance of 1 trillion special treasury bonds and the accelerated release of liquidity by the central bank, coupled with the active development of large-scale infrastructure by the government, the context of domestic economic stimulus has been very clear, and the policy may be more positive than expected. Under the resonance of multiple factors, A-shares are expected to usher in the best investment window period of the year.

Many institutions have issued research reports suggesting that investors pay attention to industries that benefit from the improvement of external relations and the rebound of market demand, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence computing power, photovoltaics, textiles and garments, aviation and non-ferrous metals in the resource category.

Semiconductor:

Inventory is constantly being cleared

Good expectations do not change

The progress of industry recovery is an important focus of the semiconductor industry, and independent and controllable is one of the main lines of the industry. Some analysts pointed out that capital expenditure is gradually accelerating, the localization rate is accelerating, policy support is expected to be strengthened, and as the semiconductor cycle gradually bottoms out, the semiconductor industry is expected to continue to improve.

He Maofei, an analyst at Western Securities, pointed out that in the middle of the year, the market began to worry about the introduction of a new round of semiconductor export control policies by the United States, and at the same time, affected by the downstream demand of wafer foundry, the overall utilization rate of wafer factories was in a low position.

Standing at the current point in time, we believe that the recovery trend of wafer factory capacity utilization rate is clear, the expansion of domestic wafer factories is getting closer and closer, and the market's concerns about the introduction of a new round of export control policies by the United States have been fully priced.

Judging from the quarterly data of the industry and the performance of A-share semiconductor companies in the third quarter of 2023, Hu Jian, an analyst at Guosen Securities, believes that the bottom of the semiconductor industry cycle has passed, in which global and Chinese semiconductor sales have increased quarter-on-quarter for two consecutive quarters and the year-on-year decline has narrowed, and the overall revenue of A-share semiconductor companies in the third quarter has achieved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, and the gross profit margin has decreased slightly quarter-on-quarter.

From the perspective of the cycle, the bottom of the current cycle of semiconductors has passed and will gradually recover, and from the perspective of growth, semiconductors, as the foundation of "electronics +", have long-term growth.

In terms of opportunities, Hu Jian suggested that investors pay attention to the consumer chip companies Aiwei Electronics, Lixin Micro, Nanxin Technology, Zhuosheng Micro, Weijie Chuangxin, etc., which benefit from the peak season stocking of consumer electronics, as well as the leading segments that have the ability to expand their ability to expand their market share in the new round of upward cycle, such as Shengbang Co., Ltd., Changdian Technology, SMIC, Sai Microelectronics, Jingchen Co., Ltd., GigaDevice Innovation, Jiehuate, Guoxin Technology, Xinpeng Microelectronics, Wingtech Technology, Star Semiconductor, etc.

A selection of potential stocks

Aiwei Electronics (688798)

Lixin Micro (688601)

Shengbang Co., Ltd.(300661)

JCET (600584)

Artificial Intelligence Computing Power:

The market demand is large

ushered in a period of high prosperity

A new revolution is underway in the field of science and technology, and as large models continue to evolve and lead the wave of AI development, digital infrastructure is required to be more efficient and stable. With the continuous expansion of AI applications, the demand for computing power has increased by an order of magnitude.

Some industry insiders pointed out that at the current stage, from the perspective of comprehensive demand, industrial chain and cost, the industrial links related to computing infrastructure are expected to gradually enter the performance realization period.

According to the latest issue of the "China Computing Power Development Index White Paper" of the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, as of June 2023, there are 25 artificial intelligence computing centers in operation across the country, and the number of currently under construction exceeds 20, which is close to the number of projects to be completed in 2025. 2023-2024 will be a year of rapid growth in the scale of computing power and intelligent computing, and the domestic computing industry is expected to usher in a high prosperity.

Luo Weibin, an analyst at Dongguan Securities, pointed out that with the widespread application of cloud computing, big data and other technologies to all walks of life, as well as the rise of artificial intelligence large models since the beginning of this year, the global demand for general computing power and AI computing power has been increasing.

ACCORDING TO HUAWEI'S FORECAST, THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GLOBAL GENERAL COMPUTING (FP32) IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3.3 ZFLOPS BY 2030, A TENFOLD INCREASE FROM 2020, AND THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF AI COMPUTING (FP16) WILL REACH 105 ZFLOPS, AN INCREASE OF 500 TIMES COMPARED TO 2020. With the continuous release of follow-up computing power demand, in the context of independent and controllable computing power, domestic computing power leaders are expected to rise further.

In the computing power industry chain, some industry insiders suggest that investors pay attention to data center suppliers, computing hardware suppliers, and leading enterprises in related fields.

Specifically, in the process of continuous market fluctuations, Kehua Data, Aofei Data, Capital Online, Meiliyun, Sinnet, and Dataport in the field of IDC can be deployed on dips; Jialitu, Black Peony, and Invic in the field of data center hardware equipment; Zhongji Innolight, Tianfu Communication, Xinyisheng, Dingtong Technology, Zhaolong Interconnection, and China Porcelain Electronics in the field of optical modules; Runjian Co., Ltd., Hengrun Co., Ltd., Zhongbei Communication, Huafeng Technology and so on in the field of computing power services.

A selection of potential stocks

Kehua Data (002335)

Alpha Data (300738)

Zhongji InnoLight (300308)

Runjian Co., Ltd. (002929)

Photovoltaic:

Global warming

There is room for repair in the industry

Recently, the market has some positive expectations around domestic PV capacity control and the PV trade policies of the world's major economies towards China.

Zhang Han, an analyst at Huaxin Securities, pointed out that after more than a year of adjustment, the share price of the photovoltaic sector has been on the decline in net profit per watt next year. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in the industry during the performance window period, especially the marginal changes in supply-side policies and overseas demand, and wait for the fundamentals to be realized.

Benefiting from the increase in module production scheduling in the third quarter, the demand for auxiliary materials improved, and the shipments of most auxiliary materials increased significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the profitability improved quarter-on-quarter.

The fourth quarter is the peak season for centralized traditional installation in China, and it is expected that industry shipments will still maintain month-on-month growth, and it is expected that the profitability of the middle and downstream links will still be in a downward channel.

Yao Yao, an analyst at Guojin Securities, pointed out that the photovoltaic industry has recently shown an increasingly obvious trend of improvement on the supply side, considering that the market's concern about this round of "serious overcapacity" is one of the core reasons for the decline of the sector in the past year or so, the signal of continuous marginal improvement on the supply side will effectively support the warming of plate sentiment and the bottoming out of the market, and there is room for repair in the industry.

Xiao Suo, an analyst at Shanxi Securities, pointed out that the performance in the third quarter was affected by the slowdown in the growth of downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry in the short term, and with the improvement of Sino-US relations, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of BC-related structural rebound. It is recommended that investors pay attention to Aiko shares, LONGi Green Energy, Yonghe Intelligent Control, Dike shares, Follett, Foster, Jinfu Technology, Bofei Electric, Shichuang Energy, Kuangshun Materials, etc.

A selection of potential stocks

Aiko shares(600732)

LONGi Green Energy (601012)

Yonghe Intelligent Control(002795)

Dike Co., Ltd.(300842)

Textile & Garment:

Internal and external needs converge

Pay attention to the subdivision track

The recovery of domestic demand continues, and the textile and garment industry is expected to start accelerating growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. At the same time, external demand is stabilizing and rebounding at the bottom, overseas brands are gradually coming to an end, and the Christmas demand season is coming, and the inflection point of orders is gradually emerging.

Some industry insiders pointed out that from the perspective of consumption trends, consumers' consumption concepts tend to be rational, and the trend of consumption grading is emerging; from the perspective of track and pattern, the industry will continue to maintain steady growth in 2024, there are development opportunities in subdivided tracks, and the share of head brands is expected to consolidate and increase.

Lin Jichuan, an analyst at CICC, pointed out that after a volatile base from 2021 to 2023, it is expected that textile and apparel consumption may return to stable growth.

Among them, three major directions are worth paying attention to, the first is that the leading functional apparel relies on scientific and technological innovation to continuously meet the diversified needs of consumers, the second is the expansion of the mass consumer market and the growth of cost-effective products, and the third is the stable advantage of Chinese consumer brands and manufacturing enterprises to go overseas.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the clothing club will maintain a recovery as a whole. Hao Shuai, an analyst at Bank of China Securities, pointed out that the zero data in August and September showed a trend of stabilization and rebound, and we judged that the overall consumption was still in a weak recovery channel, and the dislocation of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in September had a significant boost to clothing retail, and the increase in customer flow to the store promoted the growth of customer orders, while consumer confidence has improved to a certain extent compared with July and August, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the future.

With the further improvement of consumer confidence and the low base in the fourth quarter of 2022, it is expected that the recovery trend of clothing consumption in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be clearer under the recovery of demand for autumn and winter clothing.

In addition, the inflection point of upstream textile manufacturing is imminent, and the order share of leading enterprises continues to increase, so it is recommended to pay attention to Huali Group, Shenzhou International, Xinao Shares, Jiansheng Group, etc.

A selection of potential stocks

Heilan House (600398)

SAINT ANGELO (002154)

Jinhong Group (603518)

Huali Group (300979)

Civil aviation:

International flights resumed

The industry is on the upswing

In the short term, unfavorable factors such as demand pressure and high oil prices have been fully released. In addition, the recent increase in flights between China and the United States, the steady recovery of international routes, and the catalysis of the civil aviation sector.

In the medium and long term, the cyclical investment opportunities brought about by the reversal of supply and demand are promising. Luo Jiangnan, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, pointed out that the airlines performed strongly in the third quarter, and the performance of many companies hit a record high in a single quarter.

In the third quarter of 2023, the revenue of Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring and Autumn Airlines, Jixiang, Hainan Airlines, and Huaxia increased by 150.61%, 138.6%, 70.31%, 113.52%, 144.75%, 149.57%, and 90% year-on-year. Passenger traffic in the industry increased by 3% in the third quarter compared to pre-pandemic levels, of which domestic growth was 9% and international recovery to 52%.

At the level of external factors, oil prices have been adjusted at a high level, the upward pressure on the exchange rate has eased, and the pressure on oil and foreign exchange has shown marginal improvement. Looking ahead, we are optimistic that the aviation industry will enter a three-year upward cycle, and its performance is expected to grow year by year.

In the third quarter of 2023, the performance of most domestic airlines hit new highs amid the rise in volume and price and the overall stability of oil exchanges, and the investment opportunities in the aviation cycle have been preliminarily verified.

In addition, the recovery of international flights is accelerating, and the U.S. Department of Transportation has approved additional flights between China and the United States, with the relaxation of the outbound policy, the demand for international air travel will further pick up, and the problem of domestic excess capacity will be improved; finally, referring to the experience of U.S. airlines, airlines will create better performance from a high starting point after the epidemic, and are optimistic about the new high performance of civil aviation in 2024.

Continental Airlines is optimistic about the long-term investment logic of the aviation industry in the future, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the large-cycle investment opportunities in the aviation sector, especially Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Air China, etc.

A selection of potential stocks

Spring Airlines (601021)

Juneyao Airlines (603885)

Air China (601111)

China Southern Airlines (600029)

Nonferrous metal:

Global interest rate hikes are over

The inflection point of the cycle is approaching

The Fed's interest rate hike momentum during the year is still weak, the inflection point of monetary policy is gradually approaching, the domestic policy level continues to release good results, and the pull of trillions of national bonds on demand is worth looking forward to.

Some industry insiders pointed out that in 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter the upward channel of "demand + currency" resonance, and the achievement of this situation requires investors to be patient, that is, to "keep" the clouds and see the moon.

Although the improvement of the current economic data is still relatively modest, starting from the fourth quarter of 2023, with the gradual emergence of the effect of the stable growth policy, the domestic economy is expected to rebound significantly, and the demand for replenishment under low inventory is also expected to be activated, thereby driving the demand of the non-ferrous metals industry to usher in an upward inflection point.

On the monetary side, in the current high interest rate environment, the market's sensitivity to interest rate cut transactions is increasing, as the reaction of high interest rates on the U.S. economy is gradually reflected, the Fed rate hike expectations or will appear dovish correction, interest rate cut trading is expected to open, but also for the domestic monetary policy easing and economic recovery to create space.

In the subdivision, precious metals are generally optimistic about the industry. Qiu Zuxue, an analyst at Minsheng Securities, pointed out that the effect of interest rate hikes in the United States is gradually emerging, and the core CPI is steadily declining, but the weakness of the U.S. economy is gradually emerging, and high-frequency data shows that employment is lower than expected, and the risk of rising unemployment continues to increase.

In addition, the global central bank gold purchase enthusiasm continued to decrease from the first quarter to the third quarter, and the People's Bank of China has continued to increase its holdings since the beginning of the year, supporting the upward movement of gold prices, focusing on Shandong Gold, CICC Gold, Yintai Gold, Chifeng Gold, etc.

With the marginal improvement of demand, Li Chao, an analyst at Guojin Securities, suggested paying attention to the bottom layout opportunities of the lithium sector. Li Chao pointed out that the current lithium sector stocks have basically fallen to the bottom range, and it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate and cost advantages, such as Tianqi Lithium and Sinomine Resources.

A selection of potential stocks

Shandong Gold (600547)

CICC Gold (600489)

Tianqi Lithium (002466)

Sinomine Resources (002738)

Editor|Peng Yue Proofreading|Yuan Gang  

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