Oil prices have "risen 10 times and fallen 11 times" throughout the year, and refueling is more expensive?
Text/Tao Li
Although car owners have finally waited for good news recently - oil prices have recently ushered in "five consecutive drops", but to be honest, as consumers, this does not make people feel relaxed, because the drop is not enough, and the "mosquito legs" cannot solve the "car famine" caused by high oil prices. On the contrary, more car owners have begun to worry that the next slight increase in oil prices will bring oil prices back to pre-liberation levels overnight.
According to the latest oil price changes, domestic oil prices ushered in another downward adjustment on December 5, with the discounted prices of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel reduced by 0.04 yuan/liter, 0.05 yuan/liter and 0.04 yuan/liter respectively. According to the calculation of the fuel tank capacity of 50L, filling up a tank of 92 gasoline will save 2 yuan, and filling up a tank of 95 gasoline can save an additional 0.5 yuan.
With the five consecutive declines in the retail price of refined oil, the cumulative decline of domestic standard gasoline and diesel fuel has reached 1.52 yuan/liter, and the current price of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country is about 7.85 yuan/liter, and No. 95 gasoline is about 8.32 yuan/liter. However, if we compare the annual oil price, the domestic oil price is still rising as a whole, and the amount of decline cannot erase the part of the increase in oil price this year.
According to this year's oil price adjustment, by the end of the last oil price adjustment (that is, December 5), domestic oil prices will be adjusted 24 times in 2023, showing a situation of "10 up, 11 down and 3 stranded", it seems that the number of oil price declines is higher than the number of oil price increases, but the cumulative amount of increase is about 1.81 yuan / liter.
That is to say, after the ups and downs, the current domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 365 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively, which is equivalent to an increase of about 0.29 yuan/liter. Although the increase this year is not much, and a full tank of fuel will be more than ten yuan, but as a consumer, the author is still worried about this.
According to the rhythm of domestic oil price adjustment once every 10 working days, the next oil price adjustment will be set for December 19, which is also the last oil price adjustment in 2023. It is worth noting that the current international crude oil prices continue to fall, with the price of light crude oil futures for January 2024 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling by $0.72 to close at $72.32 per barrel, a decrease of 0.99%, and the price of London Brent crude oil futures for January 2024 delivery falling by $0.83 to close at $77.20 per barrel, a decrease of 1.06%.
Although it has made a good start, it is still early to adjust the new round of oil prices, and it is still necessary to pay attention to whether there will be six consecutive declines. Even if it continues to be lowered, it is difficult to say whether the decline can reach 0.29 yuan/liter, because from the recent oil price adjustment, oil prices have fallen by a total of 0.55 yuan/liter for five consecutive years, and the average single reduction is about 0.11 yuan, but the largest increase in oil prices this year has reached 0.44 yuan/liter.
In addition, judging from the changes in oil prices in recent years, they have basically increased year by year. In terms of oil price changes in 2022 alone, the highest oil price has exceeded 9 yuan/liter, and the cumulative increase in oil prices in 2022 is 0.44 yuan/liter.
The author vaguely remembers that around 2020, the highest domestic oil price was less than 6 yuan/liter, and at that time, many young people were still popular "98 filling", and now those who can do this will be called local tyrants. And many consumers have been expecting oil prices to return to the levels they had had just a few years ago, which is not theoretically out of the question.
Because there is a "ceiling price" and a "floor price" in domestic oil prices, of which the "ceiling price" is $130 per barrel for crude oil and $40 per barrel for crude oil, when the international crude oil price exceeds this range, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will no longer be adjusted. That is, theoretically speaking, the domestic gasoline price can be maintained at a minimum of 5.5-6 yuan. However, judging from the current market situation, it is not easy to achieve.
Write at the end:
Approaching New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, consumers' demand for cars will increase significantly, and many people hope that the cost of using cars can be reduced, but at present, the international situation is still turbulent.