Interface News Reporter | Wang Xian Zhou Sulei (Xi Student-Finishing)
Interface News Editor | Zheng Cuiying
On December 13, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came to an end in Dubai, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, half a day later than expected. After intense discussions and consultations, the conference finally adopted a historic agreement to include the "gradual phase-out of fossil fuels" document for the first time.
The agreement, reached by nearly 200 parties, is known as the "UAE Consensus". The agreement calls on countries to "move away from fossil fuels in the transition of the energy system in a just, orderly and equitable manner, and accelerate action in this critical decade to achieve science-based net-zero emissions by 2050". This is the first time in nearly 30 years since the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) was held that countries agreed to phase out fossil fuels.
In addition, the conference reached important consensus on increasing renewable energy, accelerating research and development of carbon capture and storage technologies, and advancing the "loss and damage" fund.
How should we understand the significance of the "UAE Consensus"? What challenges will climate action still face after its adoption? What role does China play in the global fight against climate change? On the day of the conclusion of the UAE climate conference, Jiemian News interviewed Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE).
Over the past two weeks, Ma Jun has been in Dubai for the entire climate conference, where he has participated as an expert in a number of international discussions and co-launched two China-related reports. He acknowledged that the "UAE Consensus" reached at the meeting was a milestone, and that China is also playing an increasingly important role in climate action.
Ma Jun is a "veteran" in the field of environmental protection. His experience in the media in the 90s led him to focus on China's pollution problems, and in 2006 he founded the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE) to promote environmental information disclosure and pollution prevention. In 2014, he designed and launched the Blue Map, a pollution monitoring app that allows the public to report pollution anytime, anywhere, and connect with regulators. For his outstanding contributions to the field of environmental protection, he has received many domestic and foreign awards, such as the "Green China Person of the Year", the "Skoll Social Entrepreneur Award", and the "Magsaysay Award", known as the Asian Nobel Prize, etc. In 2006, Ma Jun was also selected as one of the "100 Most Influential People in the World" by Time Magazine that year, along with Wen Jiabao, then premier of the State Council.
The following is the full text of the interview, edited at the time of publication:
Jiemian News: What are your main activities during this year's climate conference?
Ma Jun: Before we went to the climate conference, IPE released a report called "China's Practical Actions to Address Climate Change" together with the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences and Friends of the Earth. During the climate conference, IPE also cooperated with the team of Professor He Jijiang and Professor Wu Changhua of the School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua University to release a jointly produced photovoltaic map, marking more than 50,000 photovoltaic power stations around the world on the map, so that people can follow the development trend of the photovoltaic industry in detail, and then identify the excellent cases through research and display them on the map.
During the conference, I also participated in a number of conference discussions. In addition to IPE, I also serve on the Global Climate Governance Committee. They have two main activities, the first is to discuss with experts in renewable energy, how to accelerate the global promotion of renewable energy, especially the photovoltaic industry, and how to integrate with the Sustainable Development Goals, and the second is to discuss how to improve the global climate governance structure.
In addition, I also participated in two conferences related to photovoltaic companies. One of them was a side event on the photovoltaic industry organized by LONGi, which mentioned the issue of supply chain management, especially digital accounting and goal setting, which can empower SME-based suppliers to actually carry out sustainable actions.
Jiemian News: What is your overall impression of this year's climate conference?
Ma Jun: This is the first time I've returned to the climate conference in person after the pandemic. I felt very rewarded at this conference. For the world, the conference has attracted more attention and more pragmatic, and China's relevant actions have received more attention. A record number of attendees were recorded throughout the conference, officially 100,000. China had fewer than 100 participants last year, and this year's China Corner has 1,300 people who can register. In addition to delegates, there were also observers from China, so there were more Chinese participants this year than in any previous year. The China Corner is very lively, different from the preaching in previous years, this year everyone used more practical actions to exchange and share.
Jiemian News: Why is the UAE Consensus reached at this climate conference important?
Ma Jun: The agreement is a new milestone, because it is the first time that we have explicitly decided to make the transition from the perspective of fossil energy, which is very difficult.
Since the Industrial Revolution, fossil energy has long supported the production and life of human beings and raised human civilization to an unprecedented height. But on the other hand, fossil energy is a central issue in climate change. For example, 90% of China's carbon dioxide emissions are related to the production and consumption of fossil fuels. But there are more than 190 countries in the world, and these countries are at completely different stages of development, such as the degree of dependence on fossil fuels. Some countries are highly dependent on the production and sale of fossils for their fiscal revenues, while others are on the brink of survival due to rising sea levels. Final textual consensus was tough.
Another highlight of the conference was that it was the first stocktaking since the Paris Agreement. It can tell us how far people have made in climate action since the Paris Agreement, how far they still are, and what actions should be taken. In the stocktaking, we can see that there is indeed progress, and there is a consensus on tackling the climate crisis, with more than 150 countries making carbon neutrality commitments. If implemented, these commitments will limit warming to between 2.4 and 2.7 degrees Celsius (i.e., average temperatures over the course of this century compared to pre-industrial levels), and as high as 4 degrees Celsius if no action is taken.
But warming above 2 degrees Celsius is still a big problem, because the Paris Agreement aims to keep warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and strive to keep it below 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is far from the target. To solve the problem, we have to touch on fossil fuels. Therefore, the demand of this conference, including the European Union, some small island states and many environmental groups, is to phase out fossil fuels, or at least to gradually reduce them. But there are also some countries that are firmly against it, because they have their own interests. There are also countries where the inhabitants do not have enough electricity, so they are firmly opposed. The final agreement is a step forward in the fight against climate change, which is why Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, called "the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era"
Jiemian News: In fact, for many years, there have been calls for ending fossil fuels at the UN climate conference. But the process is often very difficult. In your opinion, why did the UAE Consensus come to fruition?
Ma Jun: There have been several processes in between. The COP28 president (Sultan Jaber) is the head of the UAE's largest oil and gas company, and there was controversy before the congress began. The meeting was held in a relatively good atmosphere by announcing a $100 million lead donation to the Loss and Damage Fund (editor's note: the fund aims to provide financial assistance to the most vulnerable countries to climate change) on the first day of the opening day, followed by a $30 billion contribution to the creation of a new climate fund.
But in the second week of the meeting, news broke that the COP28 president had said that there was no scientific basis to show that phasing out fossil fuels would meet the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In the previously published manuscript (the draft agreement published by the UN climate agency on December 8), there was a "phase out" in the text, and towards the end of the conference, the updated version (the draft agreement released on December 11) was gone, so it caused a lot of opposition, but finally it was added in a different form, using "Transitioning away from fossil fuels" (Transition to the end of fossil fuels)" Of course, there are still many people who are not satisfied, because the "transition" does not set a specific year and the goals are not clear.
Those States Parties that oppose the inclusion of the phrase "fossil fuel phase-out" have some self-interest intentions. China plays an important role in promoting mutual tolerance.
Ahead of COP28, China and the United States reached a consensus in California's sunny lands. The Sunshine Country Statement has already mentioned that phasing down fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, supporting the G20 to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030, and committing to reduce emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane have laid a very important foundation for the global consensus that can be reached at this conference. Together, China and the United States account for more than 40% of global carbon emissions, which is decisive. The global consensus reached at COP28 has largely moved along the lines of the consensus reached between China and the United States.
I think the biggest highlight of the role of U.S.-China cooperation is the renewable energy transition, especially the speed of renewable energy development in China, which has surprised many people, and has also strengthened the confidence of countries to achieve the energy transition. In June this year, China's non-fossil energy sources of wind, solar and hydropower surpassed the installed capacity of coal power for the first time in history, and the renewable energy target is expected to be achieved by 2025. China's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was close to 400 million kilowatts at the end of last year, and 120 million kilowatts in the first three quarters of this year, with a significant increase in growth rate. China's installed capacity growth is expected to triple.
At the same time, China has played a leading role in the production and research and development of renewable energy through the guidance of industrial policies and market competition, and entrepreneurship and technological innovation. 80% of the world's photovoltaic modules are produced in China, 60% of power batteries, and 50% of wind power equipment are also supplied by China, which greatly reduces the production cost of new energy modules, wind energy by about 80%, solar energy by about 90%, and has made a great contribution to the global renewable energy transition.
Nearly 120 countries signed a pledge to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. Although China did not sign it, China and the United States had reached an agreement before. At the same time, in the final text of the conference (draft agreement), the consensus was also written.
The development of renewable energy and the transition to fossil energy are two sides of the same coin. To transition to fossil fuels, there must be new energy sources to replace it, namely renewable energy. If there is confidence, commitment and action on renewable energy, the transition to fossil fuels will become more feasible.
Jiemian News: Regarding the alternative to fossil energy, nuclear energy is currently discussed a lot. But nuclear energy is in a special position. As far as you can see, is there any discussion about nuclear energy at the conference?
Ma Jun: There have been a lot of discussions on nuclear energy, and there is a part of it that has reached consensus. Different countries in Europe have very different perceptions of nuclear energy, such as Germany, which is firmly opposed, and France, which is particularly embracing nuclear energy. At the conference, 22 countries pledged to triple global nuclear energy by 2050, which is not a lot.
Nuclear energy has some special advantages, it is like coal power, like a regulator, and it is very stable on its own. Unlike most renewable energy sources, it requires a large amount of energy storage or a variety of different power grids to provide stable power supply. In some countries, fossil fuels are also needed to supplement new energy sources.
Jiemian News: The United Arab Emirates, the guest of honor at this conference, is also a major oil and gas country. How do you see the UAE's role as the Guest of Honour?
Ma Jun: As an environmental organization, the UAE's position is definitely very different from that of environmental organizations. There is an old Chinese saying that "if you don't enter the tiger's den, you will get the tiger". If we really want to promote the energy transition, we must confront a large group of fossil fuel interests, including some oil and gas countries, oil and gas and coal companies. This time, the UAE is willing to host, which is equivalent to facing the problem head-on.
Although it is proposed to transition from fossil fuels this time, it also adds many conditions, such as a just and orderly transition to be achieved, which implies the problem of related interests, which is a reality and cannot be avoided.
On the other hand, major oil and gas countries must listen to the voice of the world and realize that fossil energy has no future, and the future of human energy belongs to renewable energy. In such a situation, they should also be fully prepared, rather than repeatedly delaying the transition. I hope that everyone will be more frank about facing the problem.
Jiemian News: You have long been concerned about air pollution control. How do you feel about Dubai's air quality in the UAE?
Ma Jun: Dubai's air quality is not good. The UAE is not a developing country, but it faces the problem of air pollution. On our blue map, it is shown that the local area is in a state of excessive air pollutant particles, which is not suitable for outdoor sports. As a tourist destination, air quality needs to be improved urgently.
One of my meetings at COP28 was also about how to work together to tackle air pollution, climate change and the energy transition. This is important for many developing countries, especially in the Global South. In fact, in terms of direct health impact, the health impact of air pollution is the largest and most direct of all pollution, because it involves the largest number of people and affects the most life expectancy. And it has the same roots as greenhouse gas emissions.
Jiemian News: Is there a tension between controlling air pollution and responding to climate change, and how can they be coordinated?
Ma Jun: China has had an action plan to control air pollution, and it has been 10 years since the battle to defend the blue sky. The decade has also produced some benefits in response to climate change, and the rapid growth of coal has been controlled, so there have been considerable emission reductions over the years. But in general, China's response to air pollution largely relies on end-of-stage treatment methods, such as the installation of desulfurization and denitrification dust removal equipment.
In the ten years since the end of the treatment, basically its efficiency, effect, and benefit have reached a limit. Because some industries have reached the world's most stringent ultra-low emissions, it is very difficult to further upgrade the equipment. The next step is to synergize the two, and what must be touched is the energy structure, industrial structure, transportation structure, including the lifestyle of residents. And our dual carbon action also needs to pay attention to these, so the two need to be fully coordinated.
Take steel, for example, which is the largest source of emissions in China's industrial sector except for rockets, and is now mainly made from iron ore blast furnaces, which is a long production process; Switching from a long process to a short process would reduce local pollution and CO2 emissions by half, and the synergies would be demonstrated without the installation of facilities. If the electric furnace is used and the recycled scrap steel is used for smelting, the carbon emission can be reduced by a large amount, and the circular economy can achieve the synergy of carbon reduction and pollution reduction.
Another example is new energy vehicles, which on the one hand significantly reduce pollution emissions from transportation sources, and on the other hand, they have the potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. There is a clear path to reduce carbon emissions because it uses electricity, and if the power source is made cleaner (e.g. in the battery manufacturing process), then it can directly reduce carbon emissions.
Many developing countries were in dire need of such experience, and South-South cooperation was a new direction. For example, China's strong photovoltaic production or R&D capabilities, if promoted in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, will bring very significant results.
For developed countries, air pollution comes first, then climate change, and developing countries have already experienced air pollution before they are aware of the climate problem, so they have taken measures to clean it up. Later, they shifted highly polluting industries to developing countries. In China, the two happen simultaneously. The industrial chain can't be transferred out, and it doesn't want to be transferred out. In that case, the two had to be addressed in tandem, and those experiences were very useful for developing countries.
Jiemian News: When it comes to China's role, what are the highlights of China's projects at this year's climate conference?
Ma Jun: China's Vice Premier Ding (Ding Xuexiang), Special Envoy Xie (Xie Zhenhua), and Minister Liu (former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Liu Zhenmin), all of them have delivered speeches on many occasions to expound China's important positions. This includes solidarity to promote renewable energy, to walk the talk, and to implement it. The theme of this conference was selected three, Unite, Act, Delivery (unity, action, implementation). I think that's largely what China has been trying to push for over the years.
Before going to the conference, IPE made a report "China's Practical Actions to Respond to Climate Change", which was jointly released by the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, IPE and Hong Kong's Friends of the Earth. Including top-level design, 1+N policy system, to promote energy transition, industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction, substantial emission reduction in urban and rural construction, carbon market, green finance, carbon sink, national green action, international cooperation.
The response to this release has been very good, including some of the new statistics mentioned and the actions that China has taken, and I think there will be some new perceptions that will lead to the realization that China is basically on such a low-carbon development path.