Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Zhao Yun
Today, the three major A-share indexes collectively rebounded sharply, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.38% and the ChiNext Index up 3.85%.
According to the analysis, the strong rise of the market has four major positive supports, the first is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has severely cracked down on violations of the requirements of "restricted shares shall not be allowed to lend securities" through multi-layer nesting, collusive trading, tandem arbitrage, etc. In addition, the entry of social security funds into the market can give full play to the long-term advantages of insurance funds and reduce the volatility of the capital market caused by large inflows and outflows of funds.
The double bottom was officially established
For the strong rebound of the photovoltaic sector, Guangdong Xiaoyu Investment Li Shiyu told reporters that first of all, the drifting funds began to make up for new energy stocks at a low level. Secondly, the fundamentals and expectations of the photovoltaic sector do have some marginal improvements, the orders of individual companies have picked up, etc., in addition to the US interest rate cut, the rise in European natural gas prices, etc. The third is that the news said that energy conservation and emission reduction work should be stepped up, and the Middle East tyrants swept away new energy. However, the strong rebound in track stocks has also led to a rebound in the entire market.
The market surge is also supported by heavy positives, which believes that:
First of all, on December 27, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it would severely crack down on violations of the requirements of "restricted shares shall not be allowed to be borrowed" through multi-layer nesting, collusive trading, tandem arbitrage, etc. In the next step, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will comprehensively strengthen penetrating supervision and establish and improve the working mechanism of penetrating supervision. The second is the statement of the Supreme People's Procuratorate that it will severely crack down on securities crimes such as financial fraud and market manipulation.
The third is that the Social Security Foundation is stepping up efforts to participate in the non-public offering of listed companies as a strategic investor, which will further open up the investment space, inject long-term funds into the capital market, and better support the development of the capital market;
Fourth, the Asset Management Department of the State Administration of Financial Supervision has made a public statement for the first time, taking advantage of the long-term advantages of insurance funds to reduce the volatility of the capital market caused by the large inflow and outflow of funds, which is also good for the market.
Zhu Yi, investment director of China AMC Fund, told reporters that today's market has risen significantly, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to above the 20-day moving average, the market trading volume has rebounded sharply, the market sentiment is high, and northbound funds have bought large amounts of net money for two consecutive days. After this sharp rise, the bottom of the market has been consolidated and effectively confirmed, and the medium and long-term outlook is relatively optimistic.
First of all, at the fundamental level, it is expected that the mainland's GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 5.2%, which will stand out against the backdrop of the global economic growth slowdown. At the same time, at the end of the year, the national blockbuster conference put forward "high-quality development", "promoting stability through progress", and "establishing first and then breaking", providing strong guidance for next year's domestic growth prospects and focus points, and further stabilizing the market's confidence in the mainland's economic aggregate and structural development.
Secondly, in terms of liquidity, the improvement of internal and external liquidity relief continued. Overseas, the Federal Reserve has confirmed the start of interest rate cut discussions at the December interest rate meeting, and the market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 175bp next year, and the global monetary policy easing will continue. At the domestic level, the central bank has set the tone of "comprehensively using a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity", which means that the domestic liquidity environment will continue to remain abundant. Finally, the capital market investment, financing and trading policies continue to be optimized, and the financing behavior of listed companies is regulated, which will help attract medium and long-term funds to enter the market.
3000点下方，抄底资金凶猛
According to the data, as of December 25, since the beginning of the month (between December 1 and 25), the net inflow of A-share ETFs was 74.315 billion yuan, while since last week, the net inflow of A-share ETFs was 43.528 billion yuan.
Historically, the layout of funds for ETFs has certain guiding significance to the market, and when the index bottoms out in stages, ETFs often receive substantial net purchases. For example, at the end of 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index continued to pull back, smashing out a "gold pit", and the scale of ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF also reached a stage high, and then in January 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index started a wave of upward trend.
For the strong rebound of the market, Wang Hongyuan, strategic consultant of Qianhai Open Source, shouted again: A-shares have bottomed out. "Historically, the Hong Kong stock market has repeatedly peaked at the end of a bull market than A-shares, and bottomed out at the end of a bear market. It has been 12 trading days since Hong Kong stocks bottomed out, and 6 trading days since the A-share market bottomed out. The current round of Hong Kong stock market bottomed out on December 11, 2023, and the A-share market bottomed out on December 21, 2023. ”
Yu Chao, chairman of Qingdao Anxin Investment, told reporters that the current rise in the market may be a technical rebound after the early decline, for the future, the current A-share market as a whole is in the opportunity area, and there is not much negative information in the short term. However, until there is a major marginal change, a bottom may be built in the short term in the form of a shock correction.
Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund under Paipai.com, believes that the long-lost surge in A-shares on Thursday is indeed a bit unexpected in the downturn, but it is reasonable. This is actually a lagged response to changes in global mobility. After the Fed's December interest rate meeting, overseas stock markets, precious metals, commodities, etc. all reacted positively to the peak of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. However, A-shares have been depressed by the emotional side at the end of the bear market and have been sluggish. Recently, northbound funds have been flowing in for days, the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and the A-share market has finally seen a sharp upward trend. This is a portrayal of the gradual response to the change in liquidity expectations from strong to weak.
U.S. bonds fell and A-shares did not react, which was a "pricing error"
Today's performance of the RMB exchange rate also assisted the market, with the offshore RMB rising more than 400 points against the US dollar at one point.
Cheng Liang, manager of 33 Degrees Capital Fund, told reporters that U.S. bonds fell from 5% to 3.7%, while the U.S. dollar index fell from 107 to around 100 now, but A-shares did not react, "This is a huge pricing error!"
"When the dollar and U.S. bonds fall, there will be a safe-haven demand for funds, but the market is unmoved, which is extremely abnormal. It cannot be denied that there may be timing problems in the market, but the relationship between currencies is also an important consideration for investment. At present, the major indices are at the lowest PB level in history, and the subsequent market differentiation is mainly due to the expected earnings growth rate. For the market outlook, there was a red envelope market in the market before February, and the direction was mainly dominated by high-dividend heavyweight stocks, incremental technology stocks and low-valuation growth stocks. ”
Since August, foreign capital has continued to flow out of the A-share market, which has had a significant impact on the overall market. Hu Kunchao, investment manager of the cheese fund, told reporters that from the perspective of funds, in terms of foreign capital, the Fed's current statement is obviously dovish. In the Fed's past interest rate hike cycles, the withdrawal of liquidity has a more obvious impact on the market at the capital level. As the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are gradually confirmed, incremental funds are expected to resume inflows, which will drive the valuation of various sectors to recover. In terms of domestic capital, in the early stage, Central Huijin increased its holdings in the four major state-owned banks, and at the same time intends to continue to increase its holdings in the secondary market in its own name in the next six months.
Hu Kunchao said that Huijin's increase in its holdings in companies and the purchase of index ETFs are an injection of incremental capital into the market, and it is also expected to boost investor confidence. Combined with the improvement of domestic and overseas fundamental factors, the potential incremental funds or with the repair of the emotional side into the market, for next year's market atmosphere, we are also relatively cautiously optimistic, although we can not accurately predict the bottom of the market, but we believe that in the pessimistic stage of the market is a good time to invest in the layout or gradually increase positions.
Ding Ying, founder and investment manager of Comand Capital, told reporters that the United States is expected to start the process of cutting interest rates in 24 years, and the exchange rate, net inflow of foreign capital and Sino-US interest rate differentials have a high correlation, and the pressure on foreign capital outflows is expected to decrease marginally after the interest rate differential stabilizes next year. With the departure of the national team, the self-purchase tide of major fund companies and the frequent introduction of market care policies, investor confidence will be greatly boosted. In 2024, it is expected that the economic fundamentals will bottom out and the capital side will remain stable, and it is expected that a full-blown bull market is unlikely, and the market will remain dominated by structural opportunities. In view of the investment direction for next year, we are optimistic about the allocation opportunities in the fields of AI and applications, high-quality supply and going overseas, medicine, and military industry.
National Business Daily