Can this A-share rally turn into a reversal?

On January 23, A-shares rebounded slightly, the National Standing Committee for the stabilization of the stock market's statement, the market is recognized, we say that the price reversal, today is proved, and I think there will be a follow-up rebound market, reversal or not, depending on the policy landing. Personally, I am more concerned about the National Standing Committee mentioning that "pay more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, and vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies", and I often promote the view of "stock market = supermarket", so these two points are aimed at the core problems of the capital market: the listing system is not strict and the delisting system is not smooth, and the two major drawbacks of one in and one out show that the top management sees the most essential problem of the market, which can be summarized as: "The overall quality of A-share listed companies is not high." In disguise, they expressed different opinions on the super expansion of the market based on the indiscriminate issuance of stock financing in the past few years.

At the same time, there have been several recent news, the market capitalization of the Indian stock market surpassed the Hong Kong stock market to become the fourth largest capital market in the world, while according to Bloomberg statistics, the total market capitalization of the US stock market exceeded the total market capitalization of the Chinese stock market by 38 trillion US dollars, in addition to this, the report also mentioned that the market value of the Chinese stock market lost more than 6.3 trillion US dollars compared to the peak in February 2021, and the US stock market rose by about 5.3 trillion US dollars during the same period. Note that the market capitalization of China's stock market includes the three major exchanges in the mainland and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is a sum. These news show that China's capital market must work hard, global competition is everywhere, and everything will be retreated.

There is also competition between the capital market, listed companies can be listed in China, can also be listed in the United States, European stocks, if good companies can not see the future of A-shares helpless to go abroad, that is not cheap foreigners, once a trend is formed, then "improve the quality of listed companies" is difficult to achieve the goal.

However, it should be noted that although the current National Standing Committee has expressed its attitude and determined the direction, the policies mentioned by the National Standing Committee may not have been implemented, after all, the plan is one thing, the implementation is another, and some policies are resistant. For example, delisting, the previous meaning of the CSRC was that "the more delisting, the better". It is true that the lack of a follow-up mechanism for delisting is also a secondary injury to investors, but this is not a reason to reduce delisting. If delisting would cause harm to investors, then follow-up systems should be improved, such as investor class action lawsuits and compensation, such as forced buybacks for delisting in the Indian stock market (similar to "refund-only" in e-commerce).

Personally, I believe that the number of delistings in the future should be basically the same as the number of IPOs. This sentence was not said by me, and the National Standing Committee mentioned "paying attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing". Fix the radish pit in the capital market, let the companies that want to go public and those that have already been listed grab the limited radish pit, and who is up and who is down, the market composed of investors has the final say.

In terms of plates, after yesterday's market crash, I saw that the brokerage had abnormal movements, so yesterday I said in the article that the market may rebound, and the first thing to buy when long-term funds enter the market is the brokerage stocks, because the performance of brokerage stocks is basically synchronized with the performance of the broader market, so the brokerage is the vane of the market, but can the market continue in the future?

The other two hot sectors, one is photovoltaic and the other is gaming. For photovoltaics, although there is overcapacity, the global demand for photovoltaics will enter a new stage, and after the cost of photovoltaic power generation falls, photovoltaics will become the main source of electricity for many countries. For games, the market may still be immersed in the aftermath of Apple's MR release, but due to the immaturity of MR's application ecology, I think the popularity will gradually decline, so whether MR can be successful depends on whether the game company's game optimization for MR can be completed, so that MR can be embedded in more entertainment applications.

However, Apple's veteran analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is not optimistic about Apple's MR, because he believes that Apple's MR popularity is declining, and expects Apple's MR shipments to be more than 500,000 this year. This number seems not small, but it is actually not large, because the previous Meta VR has shipped millions of units annually, although it is not the same thing, but the embarrassment point is the same, that is, there are not enough applications. Therefore, the gaming industry may be the biggest beneficiary of Apple's MR launch, rather than the electronics manufacturing industry.

We believe that there may still be a red envelope market before the Spring Festival in 2024, and the live broadcast will continue at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning: let's talk about which sectors have greater opportunities if the market bottoms out and the rebound comes!

Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}