The central bank announced the operation of the financial market in 2023

On January 29, the People's Bank of China announced the operation of the financial market in 2023.

In 2023, the scale of the bond market will grow steadily, the yield of government bonds will fluctuate and decline as a whole, the high-level opening up of the bond market will be steadily promoted, and the investor structure will remain diversified, the trading volume of the money market will continue to increase, the trading volume of the interbank derivatives market will continue to grow, and the major stock indexes of the stock market will fall.

First, the scale of the bond market has grown steadily

In 2023, the bond market issued a total of 71.0 trillion yuan of various types of bonds, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, 61.4 trillion yuan of bonds were issued in the interbank bond market and 9.6 trillion yuan were issued in the exchange market. In 2023, 11.0 trillion yuan of government bonds will be issued, 9.3 trillion yuan of local government bonds will be issued, 10.2 trillion yuan of financial bonds will be issued, 14.0 trillion yuan of corporate credit bonds1 will be issued, 348.52 billion yuan of credit asset-backed securities will be issued, and 25.8 trillion yuan will be issued of interbank certificates of deposit.

As of the end of 2023, the bond market custody balance was 157.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, of which the custody balance of the interbank bond market was 137.0 trillion yuan, and the exchange market custody balance was 20.9 trillion yuan. The balance of over-the-counter bonds of commercial banks was 57.75 billion yuan.

Second, bond yields fluctuated downward as a whole

At the end of 2023, the yields on 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds were 2.08%, 2.29%, 2.40%, 2.53%, and 2.56%, respectively, down 2, 11, 24, 29, and 28 basis points from the end of 2022. At the end of 2023, the China Bond Treasury Bond Index closed at 224.5, up 10.8 from the end of 2022, and the China Bond New Composite Full Price Index closed at 124.6, up 2.5 from the end of 2022.

In December 2023, the monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 1.78%, up 52 basis points year-on-year, and the monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank pledged repurchase was 1.90%, up 50 basis points year-on-year.

Third, the bond market has been opened to the outside world in a stable and orderly manner

As of the end of 2023, the custody balance of foreign institutions in China's bond market was 3.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.4% of the custody balance of China's bond market. Among them, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was 3.67 trillion yuan. In terms of types of bonds, foreign institutions held 2.29 trillion yuan of government bonds, accounting for 62.4%, and policy financial bonds of 0.80 trillion yuan, accounting for 21.8%.

Fourth, the investor structure of the bond market remains diversified

At the end of 2023, according to the statistics of legal entities (manager dimension), there were a total of 2,162 holders of debt financing instruments of non-financial enterprises2. In terms of the scale of debt holdings, the top 50 investors hold 50.6% of the bonds, mainly concentrated in public funds, large state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, etc., and the top 200 investors hold 82.1% of the bonds. The maximum, minimum, average and median number of holders of debt financing instruments of a single non-financial enterprise were 57, 1, 13 and 12, respectively, and the number of debt financing instruments of non-financial enterprises with less than 20 holders accounted for 88%. In terms of transaction size, in 2023, the top 50 investors in debt financing instruments of non-financial enterprises accounted for 62.4% of the transactions, mainly concentrated in securities companies, fund companies and joint-stock commercial banks, and the top 200 investors accounted for 89.8% of the transactions.

Fifth, the trading volume of the money market continued to increase

In 2023, the interbank money market turnover totaled 1,817.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.0% year-on-year. Among them, the pledged repurchase turnover was 1,668.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.4% year-on-year, the outright repurchase turnover was 5.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and the interbank lending turnover was 143.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. The repurchase turnover of standard bonds on the exchange was 455.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year.

In 2023, the spot bond turnover in the interbank bond market will be 307.3 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 1,234.16 billion yuan, and the single transaction volume will be mainly distributed in 500-50 million yuan and more than 90 million yuan, with an average single transaction volume of 47.021 million yuan. The spot bond turnover in the exchange bond market was 46.4 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 191.93 billion yuan. The over-the-counter bond market has a total of 1.051 million transactions, with a turnover of 196.14 billion yuan. At the end of 2023, a total of 30 commercial banks launched over-the-counter bond business, an increase of 2 from the end of 2022.

6. The scale of acceptance and discount in the bill market remained stable

In 2023, the amount of acceptance of commercial bills will be 31.3 trillion yuan, and the amount of discount will be 23.8 trillion yuan. As of the end of 2023, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 18.6 trillion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year, and the discount balance was 13.3 trillion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year.

In 2023, 213,000 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises will issue bills, accounting for 93.1% of all bill-signing enterprises, and the amount of bills signed by small, medium and micro enterprises will be 20.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 65.9% of all bills. There were 320,000 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises discounted, accounting for 96.5% of all discounted enterprises, and the discount amount was 17.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 73.6% of the total discount.

7. The transaction scale of the interbank derivatives market increased year-on-year

In 2023, the interbank local currency derivatives market will have a total turnover of 31.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.8%. Among them, the total notional principal of interest rate swaps was 31.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.2 percent, the forward turnover of standard bonds was 308.8 billion yuan, the notional principal of credit risk mitigation certificates was 34.7 billion yuan, and the notional principal of credit default swaps was 2.5 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures traded a total of 52.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Swap rates declined, with the 1-year FR007 swap rate closing (average) at 1.99% at the end of 2023, down 19 basis points from the end of 2022, and the 5-year FR007 swap rate closing at 2.32%, down 45 basis points from the end of 2022.

8. The main indices of the stock market fell

At the end of 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,974.9 points, down 114.3 points, or 3.7%, from the end of 2022, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,524.7 points, down 1,491.3 points, or 13.5%, from the end of 2022. The annual turnover of the two markets was 212.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.

责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:万军伟