Large-scale Ukrainian air strikes on Russia: what are the results?
The flames of war in Ukraine are rising again. After 772 days, the Ukrainian military launched a massive air strike against Russia in the early hours of April 5, destroying six Russian bombers, seriously damaging eight others, and causing 20 casualties. This attack has aroused widespread concern, what is the success of the Ukrainian military, and what impact does this have on the course of the war?
Although the results are there, they are not optimistic
According to the Ukrainian state news agency, the main target of the airstrike was the Morozovsk military airfield in the Rostov region. This is the location of the 1st Guards Bombardment Aviation Regiment of the 559th Guards Mixed Division of the Russian Air Force, which is responsible for bombing Ukraine in peacetime. As a result of the strike, six bombers were destroyed, eight warplanes were seriously damaged, and 20 people were killed or wounded.
The Ukrainian military has clearly achieved no small results. The destruction of six bombers and the destruction of eight warplanes undoubtedly greatly weakened Russia's combat power in the air. Coupled with casualties, it also dealt a certain blow to the morale of the Russian army. The Ukrainian side must have also promoted the airstrike as a major achievement for itself.
But we must not be blindly optimistic. First of all, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not officially confirmed the damage from the airstrike, and the Ukrainian report needs to be further verified. Historically, both sides have tended to exaggerate in their reports on the results of the war.
Even if Ukraine does achieve some results this time, it is not too big compared to Russia's dominant position on the entire battlefield. Russia has a clear advantage in the air, on the ground, and even in firepower, and it is difficult to turn the tide of the war by relying on this air attack alone.
What's more, the airstrikes have also taken a heavy toll on Ukraine itself. In addition to the 20 military casualties, the Ukrainian side also lost a number of valuable drones and missiles. At the same time, such large-scale strikes on targets in the rear of the Russian side may also trigger a stronger counterattack by Russia. Whether Ukraine can afford such a price is a questionable question.
Although Ukraine has achieved certain results in this air strike, from the perspective of the overall war situation, the ratio between its benefits and costs is not optimistic. The Ukrainian side needs to carefully weigh the costs of one trade-off and the other, act cautiously, and avoid greater losses on the spur of the moment.
Why did Ukraine choose massive air strikes?
Why did the Ukrainian military choose to launch such a large-scale air strike at this point in time? Analyzing the considerations behind it, we can find some factors worthy of attention.
This may be related to Ukraine's recent setbacks on the ground battlefield. It is reported that the Ukrainian army has repeatedly tried to counterattack on the eastern and southern fronts, but has not made a breakthrough, but has been stubbornly blocked by the Russian army. This undoubtedly hit the morale of the Ukrainian army to a certain extent and forced it to seek a new strategic breakthrough.
The choice of the Russian rear target as the target of the sortie may be an attempt by the Ukrainian side to divert the battlefield and stimulate the Russian army to mobilize troops, thereby relieving the pressure on the home front. At the same time, by striking at important Russian military facilities, Ukraine also hopes to inflict a certain blow on Russia at the psychological level and destroy their strategic self-confidence.
Ukraine's large-scale air strikes against Russia are based on both strategic needs and political considerations. It not only wants to make a breakthrough in actual combat, but also tries to influence the dominance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But this is undoubtedly a high-risk move, and its gains and losses remain to be seen.
How is Russia responding to Ukrainian airstrikes?
In the face of this large-scale Ukrainian airstrike, how will the Russian side respond?
Judging from the information released by the Russian side, they showed strong countermeasures in this air strike. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, a total of 53 drones were shot down in five oblasts, including 40 in the Rostov region. This shows that the Russian air defense system is still somewhat effective in dealing with such a massive strike.
The Russian side also admitted that the Morozovsk airport was seriously damaged, causing a number of power outages. This shows that Ukraine's strike has indeed achieved certain results, and Russia's defense system is not foolproof.
So, how will the Russian side respond next?
First, Russia is likely to intensify its reconnaissance and strikes on the Ukrainian rear. The airstrikes have exposed some loopholes in Russia's intelligence gathering and early warning, and Russia will certainly improve this issue and improve its ability to resist similar attacks.
Second, Russia is likely to strike more frequently and aggressively at key military targets in Ukraine. After all, it is difficult to contain Ukraine's rampant behavior through a purely passive defense, and Russia must restore deterrence through a strong and proactive attack.
Third, Russia is also likely to further increase its pressure on Ukraine at the strategic level. For example, by intensifying strikes on Ukrainian civilian facilities and cutting off Ukrainian military supply lines, the Ukrainian side is forced to abandon such a risky approach.
The airstrikes have undoubtedly increased the urgency and necessity of Russia's response to provocations in Ukraine. The Russian side has made it clear that it will never tolerate Ukrainian attacks on targets in Russia, and will take tougher measures to respond in the future. This will obviously push the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a more intractable and escalating phase.