Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020, this paper calculates the carbon emission intensity of grain production in each province, and uses the total factor productivity of grain production measured by the DEA-Malmquist model to characterize the technological progress of grain production, and uses the two-way fixed effect model to analyze the impact and mechanism of technological progress on grain production carbon intensity. The results show that the carbon emission intensity of China's grain production first increases and then decreases, and the technological progress of grain production shows an increasing trend. The progress of grain production technology is conducive to reducing the carbon emission intensity of grain production, and the progress of grain production technology is 1 unit, and the carbon emission intensity of grain production is reduced by 0.38t/10,000 yuan; There is obvious heterogeneity in the carbon emission intensity of grain production caused by the progress of grain production technology, and its reduction effect is more obvious in the eastern and central regions and the main grain producing areas. The mechanism of the progress of grain production technology to reduce the carbon emission intensity of grain production is to improve the efficiency of chemical fertilizer and pesticide application.
Climate warming is one of the most serious environmental problems facing the world today, posing a huge threat to the sustainable development of human society. The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points out that if global warming is not limited to 1.5°C, the world's food security, health and well-being, and economic development will face great challenges, and excessive emissions of greenhouse gases are the main cause of climate warming. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the issue of climate warming, actively promotes the green and low-carbon transformation of economic development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and strives to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. To achieve the "double carbon" goal, the carbon emission reduction role of food crops cannot be ignored, the sown area of grain crops accounts for 70% of the total sown area of crops, and the carbon emissions generated by the agricultural and food system account for 14% of the total carbon emissions in the country, which is of great significance to promote carbon emission reduction in the food industry.
Grain is the foundation of agricultural and rural economic development and an important source of peasant income. China's grain output increased from 446 million tons in 1990 to 669 million tons in 2020, an increase of 50%, ensuring national food security. However, a large number of production factors such as fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films and energy have been invested in the grain production process, and the amount of chemical fertilizer input alone has reached 382.35kg/hm2, which is much higher than the input of developed countries. In 2022, the No. 1 document of the central government clearly proposed to reduce agricultural inputs, and the technological progress of food production is an effective way to reduce the input of food production factors and then achieve food carbon emission reduction. However, while food production technology advances, carbon emissions from food production may also increase intermittently. Therefore, it is of great significance to clarify the impact of technological progress in food production on carbon emission intensity and its internal mechanism to achieve carbon emission reduction in food production.
As an important way to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction in food production, technological progress has attracted extensive attention from many researchers. The existing research mainly focuses on three aspects: first, to measure technological progress and total carbon emissions. Most of the researchers have used stochastic frontier production function and data envelopment analysis to measure agricultural technological progress, and measured agricultural carbon emissions based on the life cycle of agricultural production objects, while there are few studies focusing on food production technology progress and carbon emissions. With the deepening of research, Zheng Zhihao et al. measured the technological progress of the grain planting industry, and Wang Yanan et al. calculated the total carbon emissions of grain production. The second is to analyze the effect of technological progress on reducing total carbon emissions at the theoretical and empirical levels. Sun Ning constructed a framework of neoclassical economic theory and demonstrated that technological progress is an important way to break the constraints of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. Some researchers have found that there is a partial rebound effect of agricultural technological advances, but the carbon reduction effect is still obvious. The spatial spillover effect of agricultural technological progress is significant, and the carbon emission reduction effect of technological progress can be enhanced through inter-regional technology diffusion. The third is to explore the path and potential of carbon emission reduction. Chen Yubin et al. found that the construction of high-standard farmland needs to improve the efficiency of agricultural scale operation and reduce agricultural carbon emissions. Cheng Qiuwang et al. found that digital inclusive finance reduces the total carbon emissions of agriculture through the progress of agricultural technology. Through technological progress, China's agricultural carbon emission reduction potential is huge, and food production can reduce carbon emissions by 34.5% on the premise of ensuring food security.
In general, the existing studies mainly focus on the impact of agricultural technological progress on the total agricultural carbon emissions, and it is rare to refine agricultural technological progress according to crop types and further explore the impact of technological progress on the carbon emission intensity of food production and its mechanism. In view of this, this study measures the technological progress and carbon emission intensity of food production, analyzes the impact of technological progress on food production carbon emission intensity, and explores the mechanism of production technology progress to reduce carbon emission intensity.
1
Theoretical analysis
In the practice of grain production, the input of traditional production factors such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, and diesel fuel continues to increase, which leads to the continuous increase of carbon emission intensity of grain production, and it is the only way for the sustainable development of grain production on the mainland to improve the level of technological progress in grain production and replace traditional production factors with advanced grain production technology. Grain production technology refers to the actual productivity directly applied to grain production, and the technological progress of grain production refers to the process of change that breaks through the shackles of the original grain production, including cutting-edge technological progress and comprehensive technological efficiency. As can be seen from Figure 1, cutting-edge technological progress refers to the technological progress of germplasm innovation, chemical fertilizer and pesticide reduction technology, new fertilizer and pesticide agricultural film and other biochemical technologies and advanced machinery and equipment into food production, thereby promoting the outward shift of production possibilities. Comprehensive technical efficiency refers to the technological progress of the innovation of the management system and the ability of operation and management to make the actual output of grain production as close as possible to the boundary of production possibility. In the process of technological progress in grain production, on the one hand, the technology of reducing the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the technology of new fertilizers and pesticides, and the new production experience can help improve the accuracy of the input of carbon-containing elements such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films, so as to reduce the redundant input of carbon elements such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films, thereby reducing carbon emission intensity. On the other hand, advances in food production technology can improve the utilization efficiency of carbon-containing elements of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films, thereby helping to reduce carbon emission intensity. Based on this, hypothesis 1 is proposed.
Fig. 1 Theoretical framework of the impact of technological progress in food production on carbon emission intensity of food production
Hypothesis 1: Technological advances in food production can help reduce the carbon intensity of food production.
The regionality of grain production activities is strong, the agricultural resource endowment of different regions is different, there are great differences in the level of grain production technology, production scale and production structure, and there are also regional differences in the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production. Generally speaking, economic and social development and regional agricultural resource endowment will affect the progress of regional food production technology, which in turn will have a differential impact on the carbon emission intensity of food production. At the same time, the phenomenon of agglomeration of grain production to areas with grain production advantages has gradually emerged, and the agglomeration of grain production will produce scale effects on the one hand; On the other hand, the over-concentration of production factors produces a crowding effect, and then there are differences in the carbon emission reduction effect of food production technology progress between regions. Based on this, hypothesis 2 is proposed.
Hypothesis 2: There is heterogeneity in the impact of technological progress in food production on the carbon emission intensity of food production.
On the basis of the above, the influence mechanism of technological progress in grain production on the carbon emission intensity of grain production should be further explored from the perspective of input. Combined with existing research, labor, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films are the most important production factors of food production, and they are also the most important sources of carbon emissions in food production. The progress of grain production technology can improve the utilization efficiency of labor, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films and other factors, and under the condition of a certain output, the improvement of the utilization efficiency of labor, chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films will help to reduce the input of various factors, and then reduce the carbon emissions of food production, and then reduce the carbon emission intensity of food production. Based on this, hypothesis 3 is proposed.
Hypothesis 3: The internal mechanism of reducing the carbon emission intensity of food by the progress of food production technology is to improve labor productivity, chemical fertilizer application efficiency, pesticide application efficiency and agricultural film use efficiency.
2
Empirical design and descriptive analysis
Model settings
In order to analyze the impact of technological progress in food production on carbon emission intensity, a two-way fixed effect model is constructed, as shown in Eq. (1):
where i is the province and t is the year; qdit is the explanatory variable, which represents the carbon emission intensity of food production in province i in year t. techit is the core explanatory variable, which represents the technological progress of grain production in province i in year t. Xit represents a control variable; λt denotes a fixed effect of time; UI represents the fixed effect by region; εit denotes the error term; β0, β1, and θ represent the parameters to be estimated.
Variable measures and descriptions
1. Explanatory variables
Carbon emission intensity of food production, taking food production as the research object, measuring the carbon emission intensity of food production, drawing on existing research, the calculation formula of carbon emission from food production is as follows:
where Eijt represents the carbon emissions of the jth carbon source in province i in year t, μj is the carbon emission parameter of each production input, Qijt is the input of the jth carbon source in year t, and CZit is the grain production output value of province i in year t.
Among them, the carbon sources include chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, diesel and irrigation, and the carbon emission coefficients of the five types of carbon sources are chemical fertilizer 0.90kg/kg, pesticide 4.93kg/kg, agricultural film 5.18kg/kg, diesel 0.59kg/kg, and irrigation 20.48kg/hm2. Due to the low availability of statistical data on the amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, diesel fuel and irrigation inputs for grain production, this paper refers to the literature and calculates various inputs of grain production from the large agricultural caliber data through the corresponding weight coefficients, including the ratio of grain crops to crop sown area (A1), the ratio of grain crops to crop sown area× the ratio of agricultural output value to the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (A2), where the grain production fertilizer input is the converted net amount of agricultural fertilizer ×A1, Pesticide input for grain production is × A1 for agricultural production, agricultural film input for grain production is A1 for agricultural film application for agricultural production, diesel input for grain production is ××A1 for agricultural diesel, and irrigation input for grain production is A1 for effective irrigation area ×A1.
2. Core explanatory variables
Technological progress in food production is the core explanatory variable. Referring to Solow's research, the total factor productivity of grain production reflects the technological progress of grain production, and this study uses the total factor productivity of grain production to measure the technological progress of food production, and the specific method is as follows: taking 2001 as the base period, the level of total factor productivity of grain production in previous years is multiplied by the growth rate of total factor productivity of grain production in the current year, and the growth rate of total factor productivity of grain production is measured by the DEA-Malmquist model.
where Mi(xt+1,yt+1,xt,yt) represents the change in total factor productivity of grain from period t to period t+1. (xt,yt) and (xt+1,yt+1) represent the input and output variables of grain production in the t and t+1 periods, respectively. The output variables are the gross grain production value, and the grain commodity price index is deflated, and the input variables include labor input, land input, chemical fertilizer input and mechanical power input, among which the grain production output value is the gross agricultural production value ×A1, the grain production labor input is the primary industry employment ×A2, and the grain production machinery power input is the total agricultural machinery power ×A1.
3. Control variables
According to the research on the impact of carbon emissions on grain production in the existing literature, the level of farmers' income, the intensity of fiscal support for agriculture, the level of urbanization, the level of infrastructure, the proportion of primary industry, the proportion of planting, the proportion of animal husbandry, the level of grain industry agglomeration and the situation of agricultural disasters were selected as control variables. In addition, in order to reduce the bias caused by unobservable variables to the estimation results, the following treatments are made: first, the fixed effect variables of provinces are added to the model construction to reduce the bias caused by individual characteristics of each province to the estimation results; The second is to add a fixed time effect to reduce the bias caused by the time factor to the estimation results.
Data sources and descriptive analytics
The provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020 were selected, and the required data were all from the China Statistical Yearbook, the China Rural Statistical Yearbook and the provincial statistical yearbooks. In order to eliminate the impact of price changes, the economic data are deflated with 2000 as the base period; In order to make the macro data meet the stationarity requirements, some variable data are logarithmicized, and the descriptive statistical results of each variable are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Variable meaning and descriptive analysis
3
Empirical results and analysis
Measurement of carbon emission intensity and technological progress of food production
The carbon emission intensity and technological progress of food production are shown in Figure 2. Specifically, from 2001 to 2004, the carbon emission intensity of China's grain production increased from 0.42 t/10,000 yuan in 2001 to 0.47 t/10,000 yuan in 2004, an increase of 11.90%, and from 2005 to 2020, the carbon emission intensity of China's grain production continued to decrease, from 0.46 t/10,000 yuan in 2005 to 2020. 10,000 yuan decreased to 0.28t/10,000 yuan in 2020, a decrease of 39.13%, of which the carbon emission intensity of China's grain production accelerated significantly from 2016 to 2020, with a decrease of 28.21%. The above results show that after China put forward the concept of green development in 2015 and the Ministry of Agriculture issued the Action Plan for Zero Growth of Chemical Fertilizer Use by 2020, the reduction of carbon elements such as chemical fertilizers in China's grain production has effectively reduced carbon emission intensity.
Fig. 2 Carbon emission intensity and technological progress of grain production from 2001 to 2020
At the same time, China's grain production technology has shown an overall upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 0.71%. Specifically, China's grain production technology progress declined slightly from 2002 to 2004, showed a steady increase from 2005 to 2015, and accelerated significantly from 2016 to 2020, indicating that China's increasingly constrained grain production technology has promoted the progress of grain production technology, and the progress of grain production technology has become an important path to stimulate China's grain production potential.
Benchmark results analysis
In order to evaluate the impact of technological progress in food production on the carbon emission intensity of food production, this study controlled for regression of time and regional fixed effects, and gradually added control variables to estimate the impact of technological progress in food production on food carbon emission intensity. It can be seen from Table 2 that among all the regression results, the progress of grain production technology has a significant impact on the carbon emission intensity of grain production, and the coefficient is negative, indicating that the progress of grain production technology is helpful to reduce the carbon emission intensity of grain production, which is consistent with the results of Wei Mengsheng et al., and hypothesis 1 is verified. At the same time, according to the results of Table 2, it can be seen that the carbon emission intensity of grain production will be reduced by 0.38t/10,000 yuan if the grain production technology is improved by 1 unit.
Table 2 Estimation of the impact of technological progress in food production on carbon emission intensity of food production
Among the control variables, farmers' income level, urbanization level, proportion of primary industry and proportion of planting can significantly affect the carbon emission intensity of grain production. Specifically, areas with higher income levels are more likely to reduce carbon emission intensity, because the increase in farmers' income levels will enhance farmers' environmental perception, thereby increasing the probability of farmers adopting green production technologies, and thus reducing carbon emission intensity. The higher the level of urbanization, the lower the carbon emission intensity of food production, which is mainly due to the fact that urbanization increases the demand for green agricultural products, thereby helping to promote the green production of food, and then reducing the carbon emission intensity of food production. The higher the proportion of primary industry and the higher the proportion of planting industry, the lower the carbon emission intensity of food production, which may be due to the fact that the improvement of agricultural specialization can help reduce the cost of agricultural technology innovation, thereby accelerating the progress of food production technology, thereby helping to reduce the carbon emissions of food production, which is consistent with the conclusion of Wen Shibin's study. In addition, the intensity of fiscal support for agriculture, the level of infrastructure, the proportion of animal husbandry, the level of grain industry agglomeration and the situation of agricultural disasters have no significant impact on the carbon emission intensity of food.
Endogeneity discussion
By constructing a double fixed-effect model and introducing control variables, the endogeneity problem caused by missing variables and selectivity bias has been well solved, but considering that there may be a certain reverse causal problem between the progress of food production technology and carbon emission intensity, that is, the progress of food production technology affects the carbon emissions of food production, but in turn, the increase of carbon emission intensity of food production will promote the progress of food production technology. In order to solve the endogeneity problem caused by the reverse causal problem and obtain the unbiased regression results, referring to the practice of Ma Jiujie and Cui Hengyu, the previous period of the core explanatory variable was selected as the control variable for regression to solve the possible endogeneity problem. On the other hand, the technological progress of grain production in the previous period will not have a direct impact on the technological progress of grain production in the current period. Therefore, the technological progress of grain production in the previous period was selected as the instrumental variable and the two-stage method of instrumental variables (IV-2SLS) was used for estimation, and the estimation results are shown in Table 3.
From the results of Table 3 on the impact of the previous period of grain production technology progress on the current grain production technology progress, it can be seen that the previous period of grain production technology progress has a significant impact on the current grain production technology progress, indicating that the instrumental variables are significantly correlated with the progress of grain production technology, which meets the relevance requirements of instrumental variables. Moreover, the F-value of the first stage of regression is 125.19, which is significantly greater than the empirical value of 10, indicating that there is no problem of weak instrumental variables. From the results of the test of the impact of grain production technology progress on carbon emission intensity after the introduction of instrumental variables in Table 3, it can be seen that the progress of grain production technology can reduce carbon emission intensity, and it is significant at the statistical level of 1%, and at the same time, the progress of grain production technology can reduce the carbon emission intensity of grain production by 0.46t/10,000 yuan by 1 unit, and the estimation results after considering the reverse causal problem are similar to the benchmark regression results, which verifies that the results of food production technology progress significantly reducing the carbon emission intensity of food production are robust.
Table 3 Estimation results of tool variables
Heterogeneity analysis
In order to further investigate the heterogeneity of the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production, referring to the research of Li Bo et al. and Tian Yun et al., this paper focuses on the analysis of the differences in the impact of grain production technology progress on carbon emission intensity in the eastern, central and western regions of China, as well as in the main and non-main grain producing areas (Table 4).
Table 4 Results of heterogeneity analysis
First, there are differences between the eastern, central, and western regions. There are some differences in the socio-economic conditions, natural resource endowments and technical characteristics of grain production in the eastern, central and western regions, which may lead to differences in the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production. Table 4 shows the impact of grain production technology progress on food production carbon emission intensity in the Middle East, Central and Western regions, and the results show that the carbon emission reduction effect of grain production technology progress in the central region is the most effective, and it is significant at the 1% statistical level. The carbon emission reduction effect of grain production technology progress in the eastern region is second, and it is significant at the 1% statistical level. However, the carbon emission reduction effect of the progress of grain production technology in the western region is not significant. Possible reasons: The high level of economic development in the central and eastern regions and the higher opportunity cost of carbon emissions make food producers in the central and eastern regions pay more attention to the sustainability of food production, which in turn is more conducive to reducing carbon emission intensity; However, the economic development level of the western region is relatively low, and grain producers pay more attention to the technology of increasing production and efficiency, which makes the grain producers in the western region more dependent on the input of carbon-containing factors, which weakens the carbon emission reduction effect of the progress of grain production technology.
The second is the difference between the main and non-main grain producing areas. According to the research of Zhang Zhexi et al., industrial agglomeration will have an impact on carbon emission reduction, and the agglomeration of grain production will often occur in the main grain producing areas, which may lead to differences in the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production in the main and non-main producing areas. From the regression results of grain production technology progress on grain production carbon emission intensity in Table 4, it can be seen that the progress of grain production technology in the main grain producing areas has a negative impact on carbon emission intensity, and it is significant at the 10% statistical level. The above results show that there are significant differences in the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production in the main and non-main producing areas, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the progress of grain production technology in the main producing areas is significantly better than that in the non-main producing areas. The possible reasons are that the main grain producing areas have gradually formed industrial agglomeration of grain production, thus realizing the economies of scale in grain production, and then making the carbon emission reduction effect of grain production technology progress in the main producing areas more obvious.
Mechanism of action test
The above results show that the progress of food production technology significantly reduces the carbon emission intensity of food production, but it has not yet answered the question of how the progress of food production technology can achieve the reduction of carbon emission intensity of food production. Combined with the actual grain production in China and the existing relevant researches, this study considers labor productivity, chemical fertilizer application efficiency, pesticide application efficiency, and agricultural film use efficiency as possible transmission paths, that is, the mechanism of reducing carbon emission intensity by the progress of grain production technology is to improve labor productivity, chemical fertilizer application efficiency, pesticide application efficiency, and agricultural film use efficiency. From the estimation results of the impact of grain production technology progress on labor productivity, chemical fertilizer application efficiency, pesticide application efficiency and agricultural film use efficiency in Table 5, it can be seen that the progress of grain production technology has a positive impact on chemical fertilizer application efficiency and pesticide application efficiency, and it is significant at the statistical level of 1%. However, the impact of grain production technology progress on labor productivity and agricultural film use efficiency is not significant, that is to say, the internal mechanism of grain production technology progress to reduce the carbon emission intensity of food production is to improve the efficiency of chemical fertilizer application and pesticide application.
Table 5 Mechanism-of-action test results
4
Conclusions and policy recommendations
conclusion
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020, this paper uses a two-way fixed-effect model to explore the impact of technological progress in food production on the carbon emission intensity of food production based on the theoretical analysis framework, and draws the following conclusions.
1) The progress of grain production technology is conducive to reducing the carbon emission intensity of grain production, and the progress of grain production technology is 1 unit, and the carbon emission intensity of grain production is reduced by 0.38t/10,000 yuan. In addition, the increase of farmers' income level, urbanization level, proportion of primary industry and proportion of planting can significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of grain production.
2) There is heterogeneity in the impact of technological progress in food production on the carbon emission intensity of food production. The impact of technological progress on grain production carbon emission intensity is more obvious in the eastern and central regions, but not in the western region, and the eastern and central regions pay more attention to the green production of grain. Compared with the non-main grain producing areas, the impact of grain production technology progress on the carbon emission intensity of grain production is more obvious in the main producing areas, and the agglomeration of grain industry is more conducive to the progress of grain production technology to reduce the carbon emission intensity of grain production.
3) Technological progress in food production reduces the carbon emission intensity of food production by improving the efficiency of chemical fertilizer application and pesticide application. The progress of grain production technology will significantly improve the efficiency of chemical fertilizer application and pesticide application, and then reduce the carbon emission intensity of food production, but labor productivity and agricultural film use efficiency are not the internal mechanisms of food production technology progress to reduce carbon emissions of food production.
Policy recommendations
Based on the above conclusions, in the context of the current green development of agriculture, the following policy suggestions are put forward in order to accelerate the realization of low-carbon and sustainable development of food production.
1) Increase financial support, promote technological innovation and application of grain production, and continue to improve the technological contribution rate of grain production. The first is to encourage the main body of food production technology innovation in the form of financial support, and encourage multiple subjects such as universities and institutes and enterprises to participate in food production technology innovation. The second is to strengthen subsidies for the promotion and application of grain production technology progress, and promote the popularization and application of grain production technology through diversified promotion methods such as in-kind subsidies, capital subsidies, and technology demonstration and training.
2) In terms of top-level design, it is necessary to pay attention to the regional heterogeneity of grain production technology progress, and promote food production technology progress according to local conditions. In the western region and in the non-main grain producing areas, it is necessary to further promote the diffusion of grain production technology, deepen the understanding and awareness of grain producers on advanced grain production technology, so that the progress of grain production technology can give full play to the scale advantage of industrial agglomeration, and then realize the carbon emission reduction of grain production in these areas.
3) Focus on the promotion of weight loss and drug reduction technology, and continuously improve the efficiency of chemical fertilizer application and pesticide application. Gradually form a series of low-carbon, low-energy, environment-friendly, resource-saving and other mutually supporting fertilizer and pesticide utilization systems, and achieve the goal of reducing the carbon emission intensity of food production by continuously improving the efficiency of chemical fertilizer application and pesticide application.
About author:YAN Haowei is a Ph.D. candidate in College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, with research interests in agricultural economic theory and policy. Mu Yueying (corresponding author) is a professor at the College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, with a research focus on agricultural economic theory and policy.
The original article was published in the 7th issue of Science and Technology Review in 2024.
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