Consolidating and improving the carbon sink capacity of forest and grass ecosystems is an important action to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The results show that the annual carbon sequestration and total area of China's forest and grassland ecosystems are increasing year by year, and a reasonable increase in forest and grassland area is conducive to increasing the carbon sequestration of forest and grass resources, and it is expected that the carbon sequestration capacity of China's forest and grassland ecosystems will increase to 854.9 million tons and the total area will increase to 646.7 million hm2 by 2030. Combined with the development status and bottlenecks of China's forest and grass carbon sequestration trading market, four suggestions were put forward: rational planning of forest and grassland area, improvement of carbon sequestration support system, acceleration of construction of carbon sequestration trading market, and improvement of carbon sequestration legal system.
In October 2021, in response to the problem of global climate change, the State Council strengthened the overall planning and organization of the implementation of the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030, emphasizing the need to strengthen the basic support of ecosystem carbon sinks, make full use of the results of the comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of national forest and grass ecology, actively carry out the analysis of the carbon sequestration and sequestration potential of ecosystems, and study and formulate the rules for carbon sink projects to participate in the national carbon emission trading. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, consolidating and improving the carbon sink capacity of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems is an important action to implement the new development concept and achieve the "dual carbon" goal, which can make important contributions to China's ecological civilization construction and climate change mitigation.
At present, the inventory data of forest and grassland ecosystems in China are relatively detailed, and researchers have carried out research from many perspectives such as high-quality economic development, rural revitalization, and "double carbon" goals, among which there are many studies on the single ecosystem of forests or grasslands, and the research on the combination of the two is slightly lacking. From the perspective of ecosystem scale, there is an intersection between various ecosystems, and the specific carbon storage should not be absolutely distinguished, and the carbon storage of forest ecosystem carbon storage usually includes forest biomass, soil carbon storage, carbon storage of non-living organic matter such as litter and litter, and carbon retained in the soil by organic matter such as understory cover and dead leaves. The grassland ecosystem carbon pool usually includes vegetation carbon pool, litter carbon pool and soil organic matter carbon pool, among which soil organic matter carbon storage is the largest. There are overlapping parts between forest ecosystems and grassland ecosystems, which generally include ecosystems in the transition between forests and grasslands, as well as wetland systems such as rivers, lakes and swamps on forests and grasslands. Therefore, there are differences in the carbon storage of different carbon pool types in how to calculate the carbon storage of overlapping parts of forest and grassland ecosystems, and the carbon sink calculated by different estimation methods is also different. Solving the problem of how to effectively calculate will help researchers and the public to better understand, protect and utilize various ecosystems in China, and also help to calculate the carbon sink of forest and grass ecosystems, and provide reference for the cause of carbon sequestration and sequestration of forest and grass ecosystems.
The blessing of carbon sink trading will help to further realize the value of ecosystem carbon sinks, and provide a reference for achieving the "dual carbon" goal and the construction of ecological civilization. However, at present, China's carbon sink trading mechanism is still immature, and there are problems such as inconsistent carbon sink measurement standards, imperfect carbon sink methodology, and low willingness of the public and enterprises to participate in carbon sink projects.
Fig. 1 Ecosystem carbon sequestration and sequestration and its trading mechanism
Current status of carbon storage in forest and grassland ecosystems
As an important carbon sink in China, forest and grassland ecosystems have great potential for carbon sequestration and sequestration. At present, China's forest area is 231 million hm2, with a forest coverage rate of 24.02% and a forest volume of 19.493 billion m3, a grassland area of 265 million hm2, a grassland comprehensive vegetation coverage of 50.32%, and a total carbon storage of forest and grass vegetation of 11.443 billion tons, of which the carbon storage of forest vegetation is 10.723 billion tons and the carbon storage of grassland vegetation is 720 million tons. The annual carbon sequestration of forest and grass vegetation is 349 million tons, and the annual absorption of CO2 equivalent is 1.289 billion tons.
Fang Jingyun et al. used the data of seven forest resource inventories from 1949 to 1998 to estimate that the carbon storage of China's forest carbon pool (excluding plantations) increased from 4.38 PgC in the late 70s of the 20th century to 4.75 PgC in 1998, an increase of 0.37 PgC. Xu et al. estimated that the total carbon storage of Chinese artificial forests from 1999 to 2003 was 0.7743PgC, an increase of 3.08 times from the early 70s. Based on the data of the third national forest census and the biological inventory method, Wang Xiaoke et al. estimated that China's forest carbon storage was 3.26~3.73PgC. Based on the data of the 6th and 7th forest inventories, Zhang et al. used the volume conversion method to measure the carbon storage of China's forest ecosystems, and the results showed that the forest carbon storage and carbon sink increased year by year, and the forest carbon storage in 2008 was 6.91PgC, with an average annual increase of 5.33% compared with 2003. Based on the data of 9 forest inventories in China (Fig. 2), Zhang et al. calculated that the volume per unit area of China's forests fluctuated between 70~80m3·hm-2, showing a steady upward trend after 1993, and the carbon storage increased from 12.51 PgC in 1976 to 21.44 PgC in 2018, and the carbon sink showed a rapid growth trend after 2008, indicating that the carbon sequestration and sequestration capacity of China's forest ecosystems continued to increase.
Fig. 2 Changes in carbon storage of forest resources in China based on data from nine forest inventories
The total carbon storage of grassland accounts for 16.7% of China's terrestrial ecosystems, of which grassland vegetation carbon storage is 2.65%~13.58% of China's terrestrial ecosystem vegetation layer carbon storage, and soil organic carbon storage is 12.62%~64.59%. At present, the average annual carbon sink of grassland ecosystems in China is 7.04~84.00 TgC·a-1, accounting for about 10% of the entire terrestrial ecosystem, which has deep carbon sink potential. From the perspective of research scale, since the 70s of the 20th century, foreign researchers have begun to estimate the carbon storage of grassland ecosystems in the world, and at present, domestic researchers have relatively few studies on the carbon storage of grassland ecosystems at the national scale, and the vast majority of researchers have studied the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of grassland carbon storage at the provincial or prefecture-level city scale. Ni studies showed that the carbon storage of grassland ecosystems in China was 58.4PgC, and the carbon sequestered in soil accounted for 91.95% of the carbon storage of the entire grassland ecosystem. In addition, some studies have shown that the carbon storage of grassland ecosystems in China is 58.38 PgC. Among them, the vegetation carbon storage was 4.66 PgC, and the soil carbon storage was 53.72 PgC. The above calculation results are inconsistent, which may be due to the different definitions of grassland ecosystems by different researchers, or the differences in data sources, such as extrapolation based on data extracted from fixed sample plots or remote sensing satellite data, or different accounting scopes, such as the calculation of organic carbon involving grassland ecosystems, and the different soil measurement depths of different grassland types, etc., all of which will have a certain impact on the accounting of carbon storage in grassland ecosystems in China. However, it is certain that grassland ecosystems have a strong ability to sequester carbon in soils. In terms of grassland distribution, more than 85% of the organic carbon in China's grasslands is distributed in alpine and temperate regions. In terms of grassland types, the carbon storage of different grassland types is different, among which alpine meadow, alpine steppe and temperate grassland have the largest carbon storage, alpine meadow has the largest vegetation and soil carbon storage, accounting for 25.6% of the total carbon storage of grassland in China, and the carbon storage of alpine grassland and temperate grassland accounting for 14.5% and 11.0% of the total carbon storage of grassland in China, respectively. Swamp steppe, montane steppe and subtropical-tropical grassland have the highest carbon density of aboveground biomass due to superior growth conditions, but the total carbon storage is not large due to the small area. The underground root biomass carbon storage was similar to that of the aboveground part, and the root biomass carbon storage was higher in swamp steppe, montane steppe and subtropical-tropical grassland (Table 1).
Table 1 Distribution of carbon storage and carbon density in grassland ecosystems in China
Measurement of carbon sequestration capacity of forest and grassland ecosystems
Carbon sinks or carbon stocks are directly related to the carbon sequestration capacity of forest and grassland ecosystems. As the largest carbon reservoir of terrestrial ecosystems, the accurate estimation of carbon storage of forest ecosystems has become a hot issue in the field of climate change research, but due to the differences in the definition or scope of forest ecosystems, data sources and estimation methods by different researchers, the estimation results are often inconsistent, such as the definition of forest ecosystem range and soil organic carbon. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is measured in different regions, climatic zones, and measured soil depths. Some of the studies were based on the continuous inventory of forest resources, the second type of survey and the measured data of field plots, and some studies were based on remote sensing image data. In terms of the measurement of carbon storage in forest ecosystems, there are three main components of forest ecosystem carbon pool: forest vegetation, soil, and surface litter. Widely used by organizations such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other countries around the world, Chinese researchers mostly use continuous inventory data of forest resources as the main data source, use the average biomass method to directly or indirectly estimate vegetation biomass, and then multiply the biomass with vegetation carbon content to obtain forest carbon storage.
Research on carbon storage and carbon sinks in grassland ecosystems. Grassland ecosystem is an important part of terrestrial ecosystem, and it is also the second largest carbon sink in China after forest ecosystem, and the current research on its carbon sink and carbon storage focuses on the analysis of carbon storage status and the evaluation of carbon sink potential, the impact of human management measures such as reclamation, mowing, grazing and fertilization on the carbon sink of grassland ecosystem, the impact of climate change on carbon storage of grassland ecosystem, and some studies on the carbon sequestration characteristics and distribution characteristics of grassland ecosystem. As for the estimation method of carbon storage in grassland ecosystems, there is no unified estimation method in the academic community, and researchers use different technical means and research methods to evaluate the carbon sink potential, but the carbon sequestration capacity of each component of the carbon pool in grassland ecosystems is roughly the same.
At present, there is a gap in the research on the overlap of forest and grassland ecosystems, so this paper uses the carbon sequestration rate method in the Technical Guidelines for Gross Terrestrial Ecosystem Product (GEP) Accounting to calculate the carbon sequestration of forest and grassland ecosystems based on previous studies (Table 2).
Table 2 Accounting parameters for carbon sequestration in forest and grassland ecosystems
The formula for calculating carbon storage in forest and grassland ecosystems is as follows:
式中，FCS为森林（及灌丛）固碳量（tC·a-1），GSCS为草原固碳量（tC·a-1）。
In the formula, FCSR is the carbon sequestration rate of the forest (and shrubs) (tC∙hm-2∙a-1), SF is the forest area (hm2), and β is the soil carbon sequestration coefficient of the forest (and shrubs), with a value of 0.646.
Since grassland vegetation withers every year, and its fixed carbon returns to the atmosphere or enters the soil, this part overlaps with the understory vegetation litter in the forest (and shrub) ecosystem, and the grassland vegetation carbon storage is small, accounting for 2.65%~13.58% of the carbon storage of the grassland ecosystem.
式中，GSR为草地土壤的固碳速率（tC∙hm-2∙a-1），SG为草地面积（hm2）。
According to equations (1)~(3), as of 2020, the annual carbon sequestration of China's forest ecosystems is about 398 million tons, and the annual carbon sequestration of grassland ecosystems is about 08 million tons. Based on the complex biological and ecological knowledge involved in the process of carbon sequestration and sequestration in forest and grassland ecosystems, and the factors affecting the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems are also changing, this study used the GM(1,1) grey prediction model to predict and analyze the annual carbon sequestration of forest and grassland ecosystems with reference to the research method of Zhang Ying et al. The grey prediction method is a prediction method based on the latent laws of data, which predicts the grey system by establishing a grey model, which has the advantages of simple operation, less information required and high accuracy. Due to the difficulty in obtaining the parameters of carbon sequestration rate in forest and grassland ecosystems, the time span of the study is relatively short, and the grey prediction method is suitable for dealing with the prediction problem with a limited number of samples, so it was selected in this study. Based on the GM(1,1) prediction model, the first-order differential equation of variables versus time variables is constructed:
where x(1) represents the sequence generated by the original sequence x(0) after one accumulation; t is a time variable; A is the development gray number, which can control the future development trend of the system, and B is the endogenous control gray number, which is used to reflect the strong and weak relationship between data changes, both of which are the parameters to be evaluated of the model.
The following steps are performed on the model.
First, let the original sequence x(0):
Secondly, if all the scale values are located in the interval σ (t), it means that the data is suitable for model construction, and the calculation and test formula of the scale is as follows:
Then, the original sequence x(0) is added to generate a first-order accumulation sequence:
Then, the mean series z(1)(t) of x(1) is generated, the first-order linear differential equation (Eq. (4)) is constructed, the least squares method is used to solve the parameters a and b in the model, and then the time response function of the GM(1,1) prediction model is obtained:
Finally, the predicted value is obtained according to the formula, and the relative error and posterior difference are used to test the goodness of the model fitting.
After data analysis, all the sequence ratios of the original sequence were located in the interval (0.717, 1.396), indicating that the original sequence passed the scale test and was suitable for constructing a grey prediction model, and the construction results were as follows: the development coefficient a was −0.192, the grey action b was 2.519, and the posteriori difference ratio C value was 0.017.
The posterior difference ratio is an index to evaluate the grey prediction accuracy, and the smaller the posterior difference ratio, the higher the grey prediction accuracy. According to the general standard, when the posteriori difference ratio C value < 0.35, it means that the model accuracy is high. 0.35≤C value<0.5 means that the model accuracy is qualified, 0.5≤C value < 0.65 means that the model accuracy is basically qualified, if the C value is ≥ 0.65, it means that the model accuracy is unqualified, and the C value of this model is 0.017<0.35, indicating that the model accuracy is high and the results are feasible.
The average relative error of the model is 3.013%, which means that the model fits well, so the annual carbon sequestration of China's forest and grass ecosystems can be predicted, and the time response function is as follows:
During the ceremony,
is the annual carbon sequestration of forest and grass ecosystems, and the value of t is 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., where t=0 represents the base period of 2000, t=1 represents 2005, and so on.
Table 3 Model fitting results
Method: The time response function of the total area of forest and grass ecosystem in China was constructed as above:
During the ceremony,
It is the total area of forest and grass ecosystem, and the values of other variables are the same as above.
According to the results of the grey prediction model GM(1,1) in Figure 3, the annual carbon sequestration and total area of forest and grassland ecosystems in China show an increasing trend year by year, and the prediction data show that In 2030, the carbon sequestration of China's forest and grass ecosystems will increase to 854.9 million tons, and the total area will increase to 646.7 million hm2.
Figure 3 Model prediction results
Current status and development bottlenecks of carbon sequestration trading in forest and grassland ecosystems
1 Current status of carbon sequestration trading in forest and grassland ecosystems
At present, China's forest and grass carbon sink trading is mainly based on forestry carbon sink, and forestry carbon sink originated from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) at the earliest, as shown in Figure 4, 2006-2013 was the period of rapid development of China's CDM projects, and in 2012, China registered the largest number of CDM projects, as high as 1819, but since 2013, China has been subject to the EU's restrictions on CDM projects. The number of registered projects has dropped sharply, and China has begun to establish an emissions trading market and a voluntary certified emission reduction (CCER) scheme.
Fig. 4 Number of CDM project registrations in China from 2005 to 2020
At present, there are three main types of forestry carbon sink projects in China, one is the CDM forestry carbon sink project, the second is the CCER forestry carbon sink project, and the third is other voluntary projects, such as the forestry voluntary carbon emission reduction standard (VCS) project, and the Guizhou single carbon sink poverty alleviation project. In recent years, China's areas with abundant forest and grass resources have vigorously promoted forestry carbon sink pilot projects, used carbon sink methodology to investigate local forestry carbon sink resources, and carried out research and layout of carbon sink pilot projects based on their own resources and geographical advantages, and achieved good results. For example, since 2014, Inner Mongolia Qiuer Forest Industry Co., Ltd. has invested in and developed the International Certified Carbon Emission Reduction Standard (VCS) project, realizing the transformation of forest ecological resources into products. Up to now, the sales volume of forestry carbon sink products of Inner Mongolia Forest Industry Group has exceeded 4.9 million yuan, becoming a typical representative of the transformation of ecological benefits through carbon sink sales in key state-owned forest areas.
In 2017, China's CCER-related work was suspended, mainly because the methods of accepting projects were complex and difficult to certify, but China's revision of management measures, research and development of methodologies, and market construction and improvement have never stopped. On 20 October 2023, China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) and the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) issued the Administrative Measures for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (Trial), which aims to regulate voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading and related activities across the country. On the 24th, four more voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction project methodologies were announced, including afforestation carbon sinks, and the demand for CCER will continue to rise as more and more industries are included in the carbon market. In the process of responding to climate change, the forestry carbon sequestration project fully considers the multiple ecological and social benefits, making it a carbon credit product with significant advantages in CCER. The recently released afforestation carbon sequestration methodology reduces the difficulty of project development by simplifying the additionality demonstration and other links, and provides a new opportunity for the rapid development of forestry carbon sequestration.
If the project is restarted, forestry carbon sequestration, as a subcategory of projects with high ecological value and large positive external economy, will attract the attention of the society. At the same time, it also provides new development opportunities and challenges for relevant enterprises and institutions, which need to pay more attention to technological innovation and the improvement of environmental protection concepts to meet the demand of the carbon market and achieve sustainable development.
Grassland resources have good ecological, economic and social benefits, but the grassland carbon sink project is still in the exploratory stage and has not yet officially entered the carbon trading market, because of the difficulty in accounting for the value of grassland carbon sink, and the second is that the grassland carbon sink standard has not yet been established, and it cannot be verified and verified by a third-party institution. In this regard, Ji Yuxiao et al. believe that there is no research institution for the development of grassland carbon sequestration CDM projects, and the loss of professional talents will hinder the development of grassland carbon sequestration CDM-related projects. Guo Jian pointed out that actively creating a grassland carbon sink trading platform and giving full play to the value of grassland carbon sink is conducive to promoting the progress and development of China's carbon sink trading market.
2 Bottlenecks in the development of carbon sequestration market in forest and grassland ecosystems
At present, China's carbon sink market is facing the challenge of unsound development. First of all, the carbon sink system is not perfect. Although China has initially established carbon sink trading and carbon sink compensation systems, these systems are mainly concentrated in the field of forestry carbon sinks, while grassland carbon sink projects have not yet entered carbon sink trading, and there are gaps in grassland carbon sink related systems and laws and regulations. Compared with the forestry carbon sink market, the state has not yet formulated grassland carbon sink measurement and monitoring standards and procedures, and built a grassland carbon sink monitoring network system, which has basic problems such as unclear grassland carbon sink measurement methods and unclear grassland carbon sink value. Second, the participation of stakeholders in the carbon sink market is insufficient. Compared with forestry carbon sinks, grassland carbon sinks have lower costs and shorter time, but no large energy companies are willing to enter the grassland carbon sink market, the main reason is that the carbon emission reduction mechanism is not effective enough, and the development and utilization of carbon sinks bring fewer economic benefits to enterprises, and it is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate. Finally, there is a shortage of technical talents for forest and grass carbon sequestration. The measurement of forest and grass carbon sinks is relatively complex, and the country has not yet introduced a unified carbon sink accounting method, and there is a lack of relevant experts and talents at the grassroots level. At present, there is a lack of special institutions to carry out point-to-point docking of talents, which leads to the development of forest and grass carbon sequestration has been limited.
However, it cannot be ignored that there is still huge potential for the development of China's carbon sink market. With the continuous improvement of environmental awareness and the continuous strengthening of policies, more and more enterprises and individuals have begun to pay attention to the opportunities and challenges of the carbon sink market. By improving the system, strengthening the participation of relevant stakeholders and cultivating technical talents, China's carbon sink market is expected to achieve more stable and sustainable development.
Suggestions for the development of carbon sequestration and trading market in forest and grassland ecosystems
China's forest and grass ecosystems have great potential for carbon sequestration and sequestration, but the carbon sequestration market is still not sound enough, and there is still a certain gap from achieving the "dual carbon" goal. Based on this, this article makes suggestions from the following four aspects.
First, strengthen the construction of carbon sink system. Promote the legalization of forest and grassland ecosystems, fill the legislative gaps in China's forest and grassland ecological carbon sinks, clarify the rights and obligations, compensation standards, compensation methods and legal responsibilities of the main and object of carbon sink trading, and ensure the orderly progress of the forest and grassland carbon sink trading market. Establish a third-party authoritative organization to review and certify forest and grass carbon sequestration projects, and use them as the implementation standards for forest and grass carbon sequestration projects to ensure the standardization of projects. Introduce grassland carbon sink compensation policies, improve the forestry carbon sink compensation system, and appropriately give corresponding compensation to forest and grass carbon sink producers and organizations, in order to realize the internalization of the external economic effects of forest and grass carbon sinks, encourage enterprises or organizations to participate in the management of forest carbon sinks, and promote forest and grass carbon sink trading. Punish those who have damaged the ecological construction of forests and grasslands, so as to guide the public to continue to implement ecological protection policies and implement written documents into practical actions.
Second, increase the willingness of enterprises to participate in carbon sink projects. Improve tax incentive policies, implement differentiated tax incentives for enterprises participating in forest and grass carbon sinks, and reduce their transaction costs for entering the market. Encourage emission control enterprises to give priority to the purchase of certified emission reductions of forest and grass carbon sink projects within the specified proportion to offset emission reduction tasks, and appropriately reduce the loan capital requirements for emission control enterprises to participate in carbon trading, so as to encourage enterprises to participate in forest and grass carbon sink projects.
Third, actively build a carbon sink talent team. Enterprises, agriculture and forestry universities and the government have actively established an "industry-university-research" platform to give full play to the technical support role of high-level technical talents in forestry and grassland industry in policy consultation, forestry and grassland planning, and scientific research. Sort out, sort out and collect the scientific and technological achievements of the forest and grass industry, explore and establish a set of scientific accounting methods for forest and grass carbon sinks, and sort out and account for the overlapping parts of the ecosystem; Local governments should actively use talent introduction policies to prevent brain drain with preferential policies and employment benefits; With a long-term sustainable development vision, relevant enterprises should cultivate grassland carbon sequestration CDM talents, encourage them to participate in field research and investigations, fully understand the process of grassland carbon sequestration and sequestration, and make positive contributions to the future construction of grassland ecology and carbon sequestration development. Areas rich in forest and grass resources make full use of resource advantages, attract credit and financial investment, accelerate the promotion of forest and grass carbon sink trading platforms, and realize point-to-point talent exchanges.
Fourth, improve the carbon sequestration and sink capacity of forests and grasslands. Establish a monitoring and accounting system for carbon sinks in forest and grassland ecosystems, and strengthen scientific and technological support and international exchanges and cooperation. Rationally plan the area of forest and grass greening according to local conditions, focus on areas with a relatively weak level of rural revitalization, accelerate the construction of ecological environment, focus on the construction of ungreened villages, forest land damaged by disasters, and areas with serious grassland desertification, improve the coverage rate of forest and grass vegetation, and drive forest farmers to participate in the construction of forest and grass greening through carbon sink projects into towns and towns, and promote forest and grass carbon sinks into rural areas, so as to provide valuable opportunities for the development of forest and grass carbon sinks and the realization of rural revitalization. Scientifically formulate forest and grass quality management policies, and implement measures to increase forest and grass sinks. Artificial management measures such as grazing intensity, mowing frequency, and reasonable fertilization should be changed to continuously improve grassland productivity and prevent the transformation of grassland carbon sinks into carbon sources, so as to comprehensively improve the efficiency of grassland resource use. Actively carry out policies for the protection of natural forests, improve the quality of natural forest carbon pools and their ability to sequester carbon and increase sinks, and further improve policies and measures to consolidate the results of returning farmland to forests and grasslands. Adjust the adaptive management measures of forest and grass ecosystems, explore "low-carbon forest and grass industry", and achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing forest and grass carbon sinks.
About author:Wenhui Chen is a professor at the School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, with research interests in agricultural and forestry economic theory and policy, carbon sink accounting, and carbon sink economics.
The original article was published in the 7th issue of Science and Technology Review in 2024.
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