With the rise of China, the conflict between China and the United States has become more and more obvious, and the shadow of the United States can be seen in any conflict in China.
For example, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, which have always been hot spots, involve the United States, but in fact, the ultimate place of the game between China and the United States is not in the Taiwan Strait, let alone in the South China Sea, but in the biggest trump card of the United States.
So what exactly is this trump card?
The place of gambling is not in the Taiwan Strait
In recent years, the United States has continued to play the Taiwan card to provoke and test China.
In 2017, as the Trump administration formally implemented a China strategy oriented by great power competition, the United States' Taiwan policy increasingly deviated from the path of "strategic ambiguity", and its tendency to actively play the "Taiwan card" in the game against China increased.
The Biden administration has continued the main line of strategic competition with China, and has deeply tied the strategy of "using Taiwan to contain China" with its strategy of "pulling alliances to contain China".
In May 2021, the U.S. State Department deleted remarks such as "the United States does not support Taiwan independence" and "Taiwan belongs to China" on its official website.
As of January 2024, Biden told the media four times that if Chinese mainland chooses to attack Taiwan, the United States will "assist in defense" or "protect by military means" Taiwan.
All kinds of signs inevitably make people suspect that the key battlefield between China and the United States may be in the Taiwan Strait.
But if the war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, as soon as the war begins, we can directly attack Anderson, Kadena, and other bases, which will undoubtedly be unfavorable to the United States.
After all, the United States only has two bases within a radius of 1,000 miles from Taiwan, and our quasi-medium-range missiles are enough to deal with them.
Once these two bases are paralyzed, the ability of American fighters to "fly continuously" will be severely damaged.
In fact, think tanks, including the Pentagon, understand that in the Taiwan Strait, the United States cannot win against China.
Such a result is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the image of the "big brother" of the United States today, so the Taiwan Strait will not become the main battlefield of the Sino-US game.
The place of the game is not in the South China Sea
In order to maintain its global hegemony, the United States has tried to shape a regional normative order in line with its own interests by strengthening regional alliances on maritime issues, and has carried out intervention actions in the South China Sea in the name of maintaining a "free and open maritime order".
Since the United States first joined the ASEAN Maritime Security Exercise in 2019, the United States has strengthened maritime security cooperation with ASEAN's naval forces and law enforcement agencies.
The U.S. Navy has also conducted a number of joint military exercises of various sizes in the South China Sea and its surrounding waters, including an annual maritime readiness and training in Brunei, the "Super Condor Shield" in Indonesia, and a trilateral joint military exercise with Japan and Australia in the Philippine Sea.
The intensity and frequency of the United States' intervention in the South China Sea issue have made many people wonder if the main battlefield of the Sino-US game is in the South China Sea. After all, in the South China Sea recently, the Philippines, the younger brother of the United States, has made a lot of small moves.
In terms of naval warfare, the United States does have a certain advantage, after all, it has five generations of stealth fighters, and there are quite a few of them, and with aircraft carriers, both deterrence and combat effectiveness should not be underestimated.
However, in recent years, the mainland's national defense weapons technology has also advanced by leaps and bounds, and it is not yet known how much role the fifth-generation stealth function of the United States can play.
In addition, the United States has fifth-generation aircraft scattered all over the world, and on the one hand, they cannot all be deployed to deal with China, and on the other hand, they have to travel long distances to reach the combat zone, which will make them consume a lot of energy and make their defense forces even weaker.
However, the mainland's supply forces and logistical resources have an absolute advantage, and under the influence of the "anti-access denial strategy," the two sides will at most be tied.
Therefore, the South China Sea is not the best main battlefield for the United States against China.
America's biggest trump card
The RAND Corporation, an American think tank, has given a new possibility, and the biggest trump card of the United States may be the South Asia and Indian Ocean regions.
According to the speed at which China's military strength is developing, the United States has zero chance of victory if it starts a war within 1,000 kilometers from China, and 50 percent if it is within 1,000 to 2,500 kilometers from China.
Only in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, 2,500 miles away, the United States has a greater advantage. If China and the United States really avoid a war, the United States is very likely to lead the battlefield to a zone of advantage.
First of all, the security and stability of the Indian Ocean is of great significance to China's strategic and economic interests, and it is an important channel for China to move towards the sea and develop its maritime strategy, and it is China's "maritime lifeline".
As the "front end" of the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean has the same restraining effect on China's maritime security as the Strait of Malacca.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rapid and sustained development of China's economy, China's energy demand has been increasing, as much as 80% of China's oil supply needs to pass through the Indian Ocean, and China's dependence on the Indian Ocean has become stronger and stronger.
Whether China imports oil from the Middle East or oil and minerals from Africa, it has to pass through the Indian Ocean shipping lane, which is the most economical and convenient sea route, and the security of the "energy corridor" and "trade corridor" in the Indian Ocean directly affects China's national security.
Second, the United States has been courting South Asia and other neighboring countries to pursue its new geopolitical strategy in an effort to isolate China in Asia.
For example, they use threats and sugar-coated shells to win over India, Singapore, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries to build their own military bases.
At the same time, in the process of promoting Myanmar's democratic reforms, the United States has comprehensively improved its relations with Myanmar and actively improved its frozen relations with Laos.
By promoting the development of Japan's military capabilities, deploying cutting-edge combat ships in Japan, returning to the Subic Naval Base in the Philippines, and strengthening military cooperation with Vietnam.
The purpose of building a marine corps and ship base in Australia is to keep a significant portion of the military forces out of the range of Chinese missiles in order to preserve the ability to strike a second strike.
Once the decisive battle between China and the United States takes place in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, there will be many uncontrollable factors that are unfavorable to China.
Whether it is Japan and South Korea in the east, or the European Union in the west, although China has deep interests in them, it is difficult to guarantee that they will not bite us back when we fall into a difficult situation.
In addition, the mainland's ocean-going combat capability and combat equipment are indeed still relatively weak, and there are few military bases in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, so if a large-scale ocean-going war breaks out, the chances of victory are relatively small in the eyes of the United States.
However, the mainland has already had a coping strategy.
China has been working with other countries to open other trade ports and build high-speed railways to Southeast Asian countries, which, if successful, could greatly solve the mainland's economic and trade problems.
However, in the face of severe challenges, the mainland still needs to formulate its own marine development strategy as soon as possible, accelerate marine development, and promote the development of China's marine economy.
Efforts should be made to maintain the normal order of marine production activities and China's maritime rights and interests, improve its ability to participate in international maritime affairs, and lay a solid foundation for China to complete its transformation from a "land power" to a "maritime power," thereby stifling the United States' wolf ambitions toward China.