Those three arrows hit the bull's-eye.
On May 17, a strong new policy was introduced:
- The down payment for a home purchase has been reduced from 20% to 15%;
- Abolish the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate policy and lower the interest rate of provident fund loans;
- Destocked, the national team went down to buy commercial housing.
We thought that even if this wave of policies was stronger, the market reaction would not be too big.
But I didn't expect it to be slapped in the face.
Since the "517 New Deal", the attention and transaction volume of new and second-hand houses have been going up——
The market reacted much faster than we thought.
These brothers, if you have leverage, you really add it!
Without further ado, today I will share with you the market data of several typical cities.
The rhythm of this market is in one sentence:
The first-tier cities rose first, and the second-tier cities followed suit.
Let's take a look at the second-hand housing market first.
After 517, second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities took the lead in rising.
Among them, the most obvious are Beijing and Shanghai, where the transaction volume of second-hand houses has obviously changed differently in just a few weeks.
In Beijing, from the third week of May to the first week of June, the transaction volume of second-hand houses rose for three consecutive weeks. The maximum number of weekly transactions has reached more than 3,600 sets, with an average of more than 500 sets per day;
Shanghai's figures are even more exaggerated.
Under the superimposed effect of the "three arrows" and the "Shanghai Nine Articles" new policy, the number of units sold in the first week of June jumped to nearly 6,000 units, an increase of about 1,300 units from the previous month.
After the Dragon Boat Festival, there was another amazing daily transaction data in Shanghai——
996 sets, 1059 sets, 1184 sets.
This set of numbers hit an all-time high, breaking the sluggish trading volume during the three-year market downturn.
Stretch the timeline of the deal a little longer.
At present, the monthly transaction volume of second-hand houses in various cities is approaching the boom and wither line.
——Shanghai, 18,101 units were traded in April and 18,692 units in May, both above the 18,000 units line of prosperity and decline. In 2023, Shanghai's second-hand housing has never exceeded the boom and wither line;
- Beijing, 13,354 sets of online signatures in April and 13,383 sets of transactions in May, both exceeding 12,000 sets, means that the market is picking up. Due to the lag of online signing, the transaction data in June will be better, and it is expected to hit 15,000 sets;
- Shenzhen, 4,942 sets and 4,871 sets were traded in April and May respectively, approaching 5,000 sets of boom and wither lines;
——In Hangzhou, more than 8,000 second-hand houses have been sold in the past three months, which is above the line of prosperity and withering.
Stretch the timeline again, and the temperature will be more obvious.
After the 517 New Deal, the trading volume of the first and second lines rose sharply year-on-year.
Just by looking at the above statistics, we know that this conclusion is beyond doubt.
From the second week of May to the second week of June 2024, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities, as well as in Suzhou, Hangzhou and Nanjing, will be higher than the same period in 23 years.
Take Shenzhen as an example,
Last year, the transactions in Shenzhen in the past few weeks were only about 700 units, and sometimes even 600 units could not be sold. This year, the transactions in the past few weeks have been above 1,000 units, and the high point has reached 1,280 units.
Shenzhen's trading volume is equivalent to doubling year-on-year and maintaining stability.
Among the second-tier cities, Hangzhou is the best.
Last year, the transaction volume fell from 1,284 units all the way to 900 units. This year, the weekly transaction volume is around 2,000 sets, which is a bit of a shock and rise.
It used to be a continuous decline in transactions, but now the transaction volume has also doubled year-on-year.
In addition to Hangzhou, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Suzhou and Nanjing has basically increased year-on-year.
The above are the three characteristics of the second-hand market after 517:
- Significant increase in trading volume;
- The trading volume returned to the boom and bust line;
- The trading volume rose sharply year-on-year.
In other words, there are more people buying houses!
The second-hand market is indeed improving, let's look at the new housing market.
After 517, except for Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing, the transaction volume of new houses in various cities has increased significantly, and the fluctuations in the rest of the cities are not obvious.
The performance of the new housing market in these cities is completely contrary to the performance of second-hand housing, and the transaction volume is basically not as good as last year.
There are many reasons for this.
For example, the supply of new homes is going down.
In May, Shanghai's supply hit a new low, with only 4,683 units, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%;
During the same period, Hangzhou received a total of 51 pre-sale certificates, and about 5,000 new houses entered the market, compared with the usual monthly supply of seven or eight thousand units, or even tens of thousands of new houses, which is not much.
Another example is the lag of online signing and other factors, which are the reasons why the transaction volume of the new housing market has not risen significantly.
Of course, we don't deny it -
After the 517 New Deal, the new housing market did not react as fiercely as the second-hand housing market.
The new home market is only partially picking up.
The new home market in first-tier cities is relatively good, such as Beijing and Shanghai, where transactions are on the rise in the weeks following the New Deal.
In the second week of June, Shenzhen's trading volume also caught up.
Among the second-tier cities, Nanjing's new housing subscriptions have been rising with the support of various policies such as down payment reduction and trade-in;
Although the transaction volume of new houses in Hangzhou is not as good as last year, there are more people who have drawn numbers, and the number of people who have drawn more than 13,000 in May, an increase of about 80% from the previous month.
From the perspective of the micro market, the winning rate of various real estate projects in Hangzhou has begun to rise:
Puyun in Binjiang District opened the registration of 1,058 people for the first time, and added 200 people to sign up for the lottery;
Gouzhuang's begonias have not been sold out from the beginning, and the recent increase has been sold out quickly;
Not long ago, the Shenhua improvement plate was restricted due to too many lottery numbers;
Now, a wave of opening is coming, and another wave of people have begun to shake the number.
On the other hand, for example, the transaction of new houses in Suzhou in May fell by 8.32% month-on-month, and the overall transaction also tended to be stable, and the impact of the new policy was not large.
The above is the market situation after the 517 New Deal.
The second-hand housing market has begun to bottom out in an all-round way, and the transaction volume has rebounded.
The new home market is still differentiated, and the transaction volume of the first tier and some strong second tier has begun to rise.
The policy has to be continued.
After the "three arrows" of this wave of 517 were fired, the effect was really good, but it was not enough.
Although the transaction volume of second-hand houses is performing very well, there is still some gap from the standard of a good market.
From the perspective of first-tier cities, for example, Beijing's current monthly transaction is about 13,000 units, and at least 15,000 units can be called a good market market;
In second-tier cities, such as Suzhou and Nanjing, the weekly transaction data of second-hand houses in June has begun to decline.
The new housing market has not completely risen, but only a partial heat recovery.
You know, the policy is medicinous.
The effect of this drug is only a few months.
Therefore, there is no need to doubt that there will be policies in the future until the market can stand on its own.
In this way,
The timing of entry has diverged.
In cities like these cities where the market has not rebounded significantly after 517, it doesn't matter if you wait, wait, wait, even if you wait until the next wave of policies.
Like these first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities, you can enter.
After all, first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have already taken the lead.
Paying attention to the purchasing power of these cities is very keen.
For example, in Beijing, after the 517 New Deal, the number of views in the market has suddenly increased, and the number of shows in many stores has doubled; The same is true in Shenzhen, where the number of views on the first weekend after the new policy nearly doubled, and the number of stores even hit a new high.
These cities are still in the stage of exchanging price for quantity.
The decline in prices and the surge in volume have contributed to a large number of transactions, but as the volume gradually increases, the price will eventually stabilize.
By the time the next wave of new policies is introduced, other cities have indeed taken the lead, and some cities and these strong second-tier cities may have already run.
To take the simplest example,
Prices for new homes in Shanghai have been rising for a year in a row.
Recently, the Shanghai land auction has canceled the maximum price limit, and there will be a land king auction, and the local price limit for new houses has also been relaxed.
In addition, we have said before that the introduction of each policy is accelerating the differentiation of cities.
Behind the 517 New Deal, the first and second-tier markets took the lead in picking up, and there is a shadow of purchasing power flowing from small cities to first-tier cities.
Further, we said that some cities have stopped building infrastructure, while others have been able to continue to build cities, which has accelerated the flow of money and the differentiation of urban energy levels.
Wave after wave of policies have been introduced, which are making the first-line and strong second-tier energy levels higher and higher, and the population is increasing...... The competition is also getting tougher.
At this time, it will be difficult to chase.
We have already recommended the entrance pose.
First-tier cities, just look at Shenzhen. Because the threshold for buying a house in Shenzhen is low enough, and the cost of buying a house in the core area is much lower than that of Beijing and Shanghai;
Second-tier cities, just look at Hangzhou. Because of the price limit for new houses in Hangzhou, there are enough safety cushions. At the same time, according to the data after the 517 New Deal, Hangzhou is also the fastest rebound in the transactions of new and second-hand houses among many second-tier houses.