Is it true that American military experts predict that China may build seven aircraft carrier groups by 2035?
The opening of the Fujian's sea trials has attracted the attention of the whole world, and foreign articles analyzing the strength of the Chinese Navy are flying all over the sky, among which the remarks of a US military expert have exploded on the Internet. He predicts that by 2035 China will have seven aircraft carrier formations. Is this prediction correct?
Some domestic media expressed their disapproval, because these military keyboard experts believe that China's shipbuilding capacity is not enough, and it is impossible to form four aircraft carrier formations within 10 years.
This view clearly underestimates the capacity of China's shipbuilding industry.
Here is a set of data to show you that in 2023, the annual shipbuilding completion of China's shipbuilding industry will reach 42.32 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In terms of market share, China's shipbuilding industry maintains a leading position in the world, with shipbuilding completions, new orders and hand-held orders accounting for 48.7%, 68.5% and 54.7% of the global total in terms of deadweight tonnage in the first three quarters of last year, ranking first in the world and producing more than half of the world's output.
Note that this "first" did not appear only in 2023, but has been maintained for more than ten years. At present, there are 1.575 million people working in the whole industrial system of China's shipbuilding industry, and China's shipbuilding is leading the world in terms of materials, construction machinery and personnel, otherwise there will be no Biden speech, and the trademark of the giant gantry crane will be covered, it is made in China.
How much is the displacement of 4 aircraft carrier formations?
According to the 100,000-ton level, 4 is 400,000 tons, and each aircraft carrier is equipped with a large drive like 055, a 052D, plus two 054B frigates, plus an underwater nuclear attack submarine, and a comprehensive supply ship. The sum of these ships is less than 100,000 tons, let's calculate according to 100,000 tons, then the 4 aircraft carrier formations are 800,000 tons of displacement. What is this for China? As long as the money is in place, it's fine!
Therefore, many domestic military experts did not grasp the key point, in the editor's opinion, in the next ten years, China's aircraft carriers will not build so many, the problem is not in production capacity, but in the following two reasons.
One is the issue of aircraft carrier iteration.
China's rebuilding of aircraft carriers, certainly not the same as Shandong, Fujian, should be upgraded to nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the current Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are about to come out, more than 200,000 tons of nuclear-powered cargo ships can be built, then aircraft carriers can definitely also. But there is a process in which the construction of nuclear-powered freighters is likely to be the final technical verification of the thorium-based molten salt nuclear reactor developed by the mainland. After it is easy to use, it will definitely be on the aircraft carrier, and even the super nuclear-powered cruiser in the future can also be called an arsenal ship.
Jiangnan Shipyard officially announced the construction of a 24,000TEU nuclear-powered container ship at the end of last year, and we may be able to see the ship launched next year, and then it will go through several years of navigation verification, and finally be installed on the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will go through a long sea trial. Generally speaking, we will not see nuclear-powered aircraft carriers launched in the next three years.
Second, the combat value of aircraft carriers has been weakened.
Last year, it was analyzed that the role of aircraft carriers in naval warfare has been greatly weakened with the advent of hypersonic missiles and the use of cheap drones in warfare. China can make it, but in wartime it is not the point. What is the sharpest sword of the Chinese Navy? It's 055, 052D, and nuclear attack submarines, and in the future, unmanned underwater vehicles will be added. Aircraft carriers are now "paper tigers", a fig leaf for the weakening military hegemony of the United States.
Of course, there may be many people who do not believe it, and the encounter of the US "Eisenhower" near the Red Sea at the end of May this year just proves this. In addition, in 2022, a Chinese 055 and an electronic reconnaissance ship "gifted" the entire US aircraft carrier formation out of the South China Sea, which also verified the view that aircraft carriers play a small role in major powers.
Therefore, if the Chinese Navy believes in the foolishness of the United States and superstitious about aircraft carriers, then the sister ship of the Fujian will be built, and if it does not believe and follow its own development path, then the next aircraft carrier will be directly nuclear-powered. It's risky to take a bigger step, but because it's not important, you can do whatever you want. If we don't believe in aircraft carriers, we will naturally not build so many aircraft carriers, for China 5 is enough, 3 conventional power plus 2 nuclear power, enough to deter small neighboring countries.
In the future, the focus of the Navy should be on the UAV amphibious assault mothership, just like 075, the tonnage is not large 3 to 40,000 tons is enough, the staffing is not much, and there are UAV electromagnetic catapult tracks and blocking cables on the deck, preferably nuclear-powered, and unmanned attack boats can also be launched. When the technology matures, it can be built quickly and in large quantities, and it is a consumable in wartime. And not like a giant aircraft carrier, when the heirloom is offered.
In addition, ships like 055 can also be equipped with nuclear power systems, which can realize independent transoceanic operations without replenishment at sea, with a larger tonnage, which can be 20,000 tons, and the missiles carried on it are carried more than once, and dozens of warships can be built.