In 2024, gas vehicles can be said to be so hot that they will not work, whether it is trunk logistics or resource transportation, they have begun to switch to gas vehicles. Combined with the number of terminals of various brands in truck e-family data centers (hereinafter referred to as the offline volume), the number of gas vehicles coming off the assembly line from January to May increased by 250% compared with 2023.
Judging from the data, the total number of gas vehicles coming off the assembly line from January to May 2023 is 36,260 units, of which the number of gas vehicles coming off the assembly line in March and May exceeded 10,000, while only 2,361 units were dismal in January.
From January to May 2024, the total number of gas vehicles off the assembly line will be 91,054 units, and the average monthly number will reach 18,210 units, and the total number of gas vehicles will increase by nearly 2.5 times compared with 2023.
In 2023, the annual gas vehicle offline curve chart shows that the number of gas vehicles off the assembly line will gradually rise from June, and we will continue to increase the number of gas vehicles from June onwards, with a peak estimate of about 26,000 units in a single month based on the continuous rise in diesel prices in 2024, the continued decline in freight rates and freight rates, and the current monthly offline volume will exceed 20,000 units.
From January to May 2024, the total number of commercial vehicle diesel tractors off the assembly line is only 30,698 units, and the average monthly offline volume is only 6,139 units, compared with the average monthly offline volume of 18,000 gas vehicles, fuel vehicles can only reach 30%.
To put it simply, 10 people buy tractors, 7 people buy gas vehicles, and only 3 people buy diesel vehicles, and the current market status quo is like this. In addition, from January to May, the volume of diesel vehicles off the assembly line is gradually decreasing from March, combined with the upward curve of gas vehicles, the number of diesel vehicles off the assembly line will be further sharply reduced, and it is estimated that the average monthly production volume may be less than 5,000 units.
From the perspective of the market, the current competition for gas vehicles is extremely fierce, especially the price competition can be said to have entered a white heat. Previously, the price of a 480-horsepower gas vehicle was 450,000 yuan, but now the same product is 410,000 yuan, and the price reduction trend of existing products is obvious.
Not only the old products, but also the price of new products is trembling, for example, the recently listed Dongfeng Tianlong KL Longqing 3.0 gas vehicle is only priced at 358,800, followed by the United Truck Fire Kirin gas vehicle is pulling the price to 299,000, and the price war of new products is about to start.
We learned from Chengdu Jiefang dealers that at present, the customers who come to the store are mainly buying gas vehicles, and the customers are mainly sand and gravel and resource transportation, accounting for more than 8% of the customer base. And 60% of the 8 percent customers are replacement customers, the main reason is that the price of diesel is expensive, and gas vehicles are relatively more economical. The customers of fuel vehicles are mainly long-distance trunk logistics and transportation, and the overall sales volume is very bleak compared with gas vehicles.
From the current point of view, gas vehicles have been the general trend of the transportation industry, once the unique diesel vehicles have been abandoned by many customers, for the next general trend, do you think that gas vehicles will continue to sing all the way or will stop?