Since Marcos Jr. completely fell to the United States, the Marcos Jr. family and the Duterte family, who were originally in the alliance, have gradually become disliked because of discord in ideas, and they have not shied away from making more and more trouble recently. There is also speculation that it will be difficult for the two to cooperate to form an alliance in the next election.
However, what I didn't expect was that the rupture of the ruling coalition did not wait for the next election, but happened recently.
(Philippine Vice President Sarah)
A few days ago, the Philippine President Secretary of Communications issued a statement saying that Vice President Sarah Duterte has resigned as Secretary of Education and Vice Chairman of the Counterinsurgency Working Group, marking his official departure from President Marcos Jr.'s cabinet, and now Marcos has also accepted Sarah's resignation, which will take effect on July 19 according to Sarah's request.
After asking Marcos to resign from the cabinet, Sarah held a press conference, in which she focused on her previous experience as secretary of education, and said that her resignation was a manifestation of her concern for all teachers and Filipino youth. The reason why the resignation took effect on July 19 is also to allow for a smoother transition. But Sarah did not disclose the specific reason for her resignation.
In fact, from the performance of Sarah and Marcos since taking office, it can be inferred that most of the reason for Sarah's resignation is because the contradictions between her family and the Marcos family can no longer be resolved.
Philippine politics is family politics, so the alliance between the two major families is an expedient measure under the power struggle, and the two families are completely different in terms of governing philosophy, so there was a rift in the beginning.
After Lao Du abdicated, he has been facing an investigation by the International Criminal Court, while Marcos Jr. has been inconsistent with his words and deeds, and has been conniving at the group's investigation of Lao Du, which has also exacerbated the confrontation between the two families. In the end, Marcos Jr.'s attempt to amend the constitution in order to be re-elected and let the Marcos family hold on to the supreme power completely became the fuse for the two families to make the conflict public.
(Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.)
In January this year, Du and Marcos scolded each other for "drug addiction", and then Duterte's youngest son shouted and demanded that Marcos Jr. resign immediately; Sarah was later photographed laughing when her father made negative remarks about Marcos Jr., angering Marcos Jr.'s wife, who immediately demanded an apology and resignation.
In short, the contradiction between the two families is intensifying.
However, it is worth noting that Sarah's resignation this time is only a resignation from the cabinet, and she has not relinquished the position of vice president. Generally speaking, this means that they still have the desire to participate in national politics, and may even be preparing for a future political role in order to compete with Marcos Jr. in the next presidential election.
And for Sarah, the move to resign will have several adverse effects on Marcos Jr.
First of all, although the specific reason for the resignation was not stated, it can be inferred from the recent dispute between the two families that there is a major disagreement between the president and vice president on key issues or policies, and once the vice president withdraws, it will indicate instability within the government, which will also affect the people's trust and support for this government.
(Footage of the confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea)
Second, the failure to effectively manage differences after the collapse of political alliances can also lead to a decline in the government's ability to execute, which in turn adversely affects the implementation of some decisions and policies. In a family-led system like the Philippines, the trade-offs and coordination between the various forces are crucial, and if this balance is broken, it is very easy to paralyze the government's decision-making mechanism and weaken the enforcement power, which will make the legislative process more complex and slow, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be primarily responsible.
In addition, at present, the Marcos Jr. administration is already worried about internal and external troubles.
On the one hand, it has leaned toward the United States in foreign policy, and has continued to provoke China under the pretext of the South China Sea issue, testing China's bottom line step by step. Marcos Jr. has lost face now.
On the other hand, the Philippines, as an economy dominated by agricultural exports and tourism, is extremely dependent on the Chinese market. Under the foreign policy formulated by Marcos Jr., China-Philippines relations have deteriorated sharply, resulting in the alienation of the Philippine side from the Chinese market, and the current domestic economic development and infrastructure construction have been adversely affected. In contrast, other ASEAN countries seized the opportunity to snatch the market share vacated by the Philippines, and durian, avocados and other large quantities entered China, making a lot of money.
(Sarah's trust and approval ratings are higher than Marcos Jr.)
Under these circumstances, public dissatisfaction with Marcos Jr. will only grow as the economic situation deteriorates. Therefore, at this time, Sarah chose to dissociate herself from her and actively advocated strengthening economic ties with China and continuing her father's friendly policy towards China, which was very beneficial for her subsequent election.
What's more, judging from the polls in the Philippines in March this year, the people's support and trust in Sarah are higher than Marcos Jr., so from this point of view, Sarah's move is a big gamble.