The pig price fell by 1.4 yuan in 10 days, and the national average price fell from 18.9 yuan on June 12 to 17.54 yuan at present. Among them, Guangdong fell from 19.2 yuan to 18.2 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan, and Guangxi fell from 18.7 yuan to 17.45 yuan, a decrease of 1.3 yuan. Why has pig prices fallen sharply recently?
The main reasons for this are the general consumption, as well as the shrinkage of slaughtering enterprises, the increase of large farms, the concentrated slaughter of secondary breeding and the increase of some pig diseases in the south, resulting in the early slaughter of some pig farms. In particular, in addition to the price, we should pay more attention to the biosecurity prevention and control under the influence of continuous heavy rain, once the incidence increases, the pig farm is likely to suffer devastating losses.
First, the short-term pig price has peaked
Figure 3 average prices from January to June 24, 2024
As can be seen from the data in the figure, June 11 - June 12 was the high point of pig prices in Guangzhou, Guangdong reached 19.2 yuan, Guangxi 18.7 yuan, and then the pig price fluctuated and fell, and the 10-day decline reached 1.3 yuan. As of June 24, the average price of Guangdong's three foreign countries fell below 18 yuan, the actual transaction was 17.9 yuan, and the average price of Guangxi's foreign three was 17.25 yuan.
On the whole, the reasons for the sharp decline in pig prices mainly come from the following aspects:
1. The price of hairy pigs has risen significantly, the terminal consumption is general, and it is difficult for white strips to keep up, and slaughtering enterprises have shrunk or even stopped production, forcing the price of hairy pigs to decline.
2. After the stagnation of pig prices, the number of pigs on the second breeding decreased, the number of slaughters increased, the market supply increased, and the pig prices were pressured downward.
3. The second pig breeding plate in the large field has decreased, the slaughterhouse has shrunk, and the pressure on the large field has increased, and there has been an increase in the near future, which also has greater pressure on pig prices.
4. The recent slaughter is mainly 260-350 pounds of weight, and the increase in pork is not conducive to the rise in pig prices.
Second, the price of pigs in the later period may rebound
After the pig fell to 8.56 yuan / catty, some of the two breeders began to enter the market, and on June 24, there was a 1-2 gross rebound in the northeast. According to market feedback, at present, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Hubei, Jiangxi and other regions have entered the market to varying degrees. The northern market may have rebounded slightly in the past two days, and the two Guangzhous may also follow suit.
However, if only Eryu enters, the slaughterhouse still maintains a shrinkage, and it is expected that this wave of rebound will be limited, and the north may rebound to 9 yuan, and the two Guangzhou will rebound by about 3-5 cents.
3. Focus on the prevention and control of epidemic diseases in Guangzhou
In addition to pig prices, some pig farmers have recently reported that there is an increase in pig diseases in various regions, mainly in the south, two lakes, two Guangzhou, and southwest China.
The rainy weather in the two Guangxi areas in the past few days is believed to be obvious to all, some low-lying pig farms have been affected, pig diseases have increased, some pig farms are worried about the increase in pig diseases in the later stage, and there has been an early slaughter in the near future.
Therefore, for Liangguang pig farms, it is more important to care about local epidemic prevention and control, especially the impact of logistics vehicles, than to care about pig prices.
If there is a concentrated outbreak in the local area, the short-term pig price may be affected and decline, but it is good for the pig price at the end of the year. At present, the two Guangmao pigs are still 8.67-9.2 yuan / catty, it is recommended that pig farmers reasonably arrange the slaughter according to the situation, reduce the density, do a good job in biosecurity prevention and control, reduce the risk of disease, and raise pigs well, in order to make money!