Hello everyone, I'm the head of the hall.
Who would have thought that even the national liquor Moutai couldn't bear it.
Recently, Moutai has become the focus of the market because of the continuous decline in prices.
According to the Daily Economic News, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has hit a new low this year.
On June 12, the wholesale price of 500ml 53 degree bulk bottles of Feitian Moutai was 2,420 yuan per bottle, down 260 yuan compared with the beginning of the year.
By June 14, the price fell to 2,230 yuan per bottle, down 190 yuan in a single day.
In the secondary market, Moutai's share price has also been declining.
Fortunately, on June 16 and June 17, the price rebounded slightly.
According to the data of the soy sauce and wine platform "Fuji Sauce", the wholesale reference price of loose bottles of Feitian Moutai on the 16th and 17th rebounded to 2,320 yuan per bottle
As for the reason for the rebound, the Internet legend is that Moutai held a dealer association, calling on dealers to unite and not follow the trend at low prices.
At the same time, there is also news in the market that Moutai will reduce supply.
But none of the above has received a positive response from Moutai officials.
You see, Moutai is still that Moutai, still so calm.
This round of Moutai prices continued to fall, which is inseparable from the "fueling" of Moutai scalpers.
It is different from Moutai dealers, because dealers take quotas directly from Moutai shares, and the cost of taking goods is low.
Moutai scalpers are either taken from dealers or repurchased through second-hand purchases.
Either way, scalpers are more expensive than dealers.
As early as April, the wholesale price of loose bottles of Feitian Moutai fell below 2,600 yuan, which was quite a big drop compared with the previous price of 3,000 yuan.
At that time, China News Weekly reported that 2,500 yuan was the "life and death line" of dealers.
Now it seems that it is clear that this is still too early to say.
Coupled with the subsidies given to merchants by e-commerce platforms, this will make the price displayed by Moutai on the e-commerce platform fall further.
So the scalpers quit.
For example, during the "618" promotion, the platform's shipping rules allow merchants to set 20 days after delivery.
Even if the consumer places an order early, the merchant is not in a hurry to find a channel to get the goods to be delivered, but waits until the channel price is lower before picking up the goods.
In this way, it will lead to the hoarding of Moutai in the hands of scalpers, and the price will be lower and lower.
As a result, scalpers collectively carried out various forms of "counterattack" such as invoicing, returns, refusals, and compensation on the e-commerce platform.
Take invoicing as an example, scalpers have gone to the platform to find stores for invoicing.
As a result, the store could not be opened, and it was not accepted directly, and it collapsed all of a sudden, and finally the market fell in panic.
There was even news that "scalpers" were running away: either preparing to run away, or on the way to run.
Here we have to mention the stable ecological chain over the years:
Moutai released a certain amount of affordable Moutai on the e-commerce platform, which was snapped up by consumers by lottery.
The "scalpers" buy the Moutai bought by some consumers at a higher price, and then integrate them and sell them to merchants to earn the price difference.
Now that the e-commerce platform sells at a low price and extends the delivery cycle, merchants can use this to purchase products at lower prices, which moves the "cake" of scalpers, so scalpers have to rise up.
One thing to say, the widely spread "Huang Mao Q Yi" this time is actually not directly related to Moutai.
In addition to the fire added by scalpers, I personally think there are two reasons for the decline in the price of Moutai this round.
One is the direct cause: the inventory is too high.
At the end of 2023, Liu Zhenguo, deputy secretary-general of the China Liquor Industry Association, said at the 2023 China International Famous Liquor Expo: "Overcapacity is a problem in the liquor industry. ”
Statistics from the 21st Century Business Herald: At the end of 2023, the total inventory of listed liquor companies will exceed 3.62 million kiloliters, with a total inventory of 155.8 billion yuan.
Among them, the inventory balance of Kweichow Moutai exceeded 46.4 billion yuan, accounting for nearly one-third.
You must know that in 2020, the total inventory of listed liquor companies will be 98.5 billion yuan, less than 100 billion.
In three years, the total inventory has increased by nearly 60 billion.
The second is the deep reason, liquor is an industry with strong cyclical attributes.
What business banquets and entertainment are directly related to liquor, especially high-end liquor.
You look at Moutai, it has long been detached from the commodity attribute, and it is more like a credit social attribute.
If even the high-end liquor industry is cutting prices, it can only show that the response of the market feedback is not ideal.
It has nothing to do with whether it tastes good or not, and it has nothing to do with half-wool.
The rise and fall of the liquor industry is also positively correlated with economic growth.
The two time periods from 2008 to 2012 and from 2015 to 2018 are the two rising periods of the liquor industry.
Of course, before 2021, liquor revenue ushered in a short-term growth.
The corresponding time point above is precisely the time period when real estate investment is growing rapidly.
When I looked at the data, I found two sets of data that were very interesting.
In 2016, the output of liquor reached an all-time high of 13.584 million kiloliters, the industry revenue was 612.57 billion yuan, and the profit was 79.715 billion yuan.
In 2023, the liquor industry will achieve a total output of 6.29 million kiloliters, an industry revenue of 1,080.26 billion yuan, and a profit of 232.8 billion yuan.
So you see that the production of liquor is actually declining, and it is the kind that has declined a lot
But here's the strange thing: the liquor industry is declining in production but its revenue and profits are growing.
In 2023, the actual output of the liquor industry will be less than half of that in 2016, and the industry's revenue and profit will be higher than in 2016.
Among them, the profit increased almost threefold.
The reason behind it is actually very simple, two words: price increase!
As mentioned earlier, the peak period of the last round of growth of the liquor sector was before 2021.
But after 2021, the major liquor companies have chosen the same strategy: to raise prices.
For example, Moutai, don't look at the end of 2023, the inventory balance of Moutai accounts for nearly one-third of the total warehouse balance of listed liquor companies.
However, in November 2023, Feitian and Wuxing will both raise their ex-factory prices, with an average increase of about 20%.
Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Jiannanchun, Wuliangye and other leading enterprises have raised prices a lot in recent years.
So the question is, in recent years, the output has declined, and the inventory is also high, why has the price of liquor risen? Especially high-end liquor.
There are probably two reasons for this:
First, changes in the investment circle.
What is the two-piece set that used to meet customers in the investment circle?
Red Wine + Texas Hold'em.
Peter Lynch, a well-known Wall Street investor, once said, "Texas Hold'em can teach you more than the whole of Wall Street."
Since the US dollar fund entered China at the end of the last century, it has become one of the important drivers of economic growth.
For example, companies in China's Internet industry, such as Alibaba, JD.com, Byte, and Pinduoduo, have received investment from various US dollar funds, including Sequoia Capital.
However, in the past few years, due to the tension between major countries and the dissipation of the Internet highlights, the US dollar fund is not as good as before.
You see in the current technology field, dollar funds can't squeeze in, they can only become outsiders.
This is actually easy to understand, you use the dollar to support China's scientific and technological development, so that China can solve the "stuck neck" problem, this sounds logically wrong.
In the first four months of 2023, U.S. investors participated in fewer than 20 deals with Chinese tech start-ups, less than 20% of the 2022 average, Jiemian News reported.
Since there is less external dollar funds and we want to develop science and technology, we can only look for RMB funds from within.
At present, in China's fundraising market, the endorsement of state-owned assets represented by government agencies, government funding platforms, state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, government guidance funds, etc., has become an important force.
In the first half of 2023, the total disclosed capital contribution of state-controlled and state-owned LPs (limited partners) accounted for 71.2%.
So in the investment circle, red wine has become white wine, and Texas Hold'em has become an egg.
For example, in March 2023, Zheshang Securities held an internal egg breaking competition for employees, and CITIC Securities also presented "egg gift boxes" to customers
Think about it, how can you still drink red wine in the current environment dominated by state-owned assets?
Second, the head liquor company is not only a listed company, but also a local money bag.
As I have told you many times before, there are four economic ledgers in the local government:
Revenues and expenditures of the general public budget, government funds, state-owned capital operations and social insurance funds.
Among them, real estate land auctions belong to government fund income.
The head liquor enterprise is the income of local state-owned funds.
For example, Kweichow Moutai, although it is known as China's No. 1 god stock, in order to support Guizhou's chemical bonds, it has successively allocated more than 8% of the equity free of charge, with a total market value of more than 150 billion yuan.
Therefore, whether from the perspective of the market or from the perspective of local performance finance, liquor is going to grow, so it is natural to raise prices.
I saw many accounts saying that "the price of Moutai has collapsed", and also said that a bottle of Moutai is worth hundreds of yuan at most.
Personally, I think that under the existing established conditions, it is unlikely.
That's right, Moutai is indeed just wine, not gold.
However, Moutai is far more than just wine.
Because people who really come into contact with Moutai either don't buy what they drink, or they don't drink what they do.
I also saw that it is actually difficult to say what will happen to Moutai in the future, depending on whether the post-00s still drink it or not.
Because after entering that environment, the decision is not in the post-00s.
However, now the price of Moutai continues to fall, which does reflect a hint of change.
In the past, the tiger action was so fierce, and I didn't see the price of Moutai fall so much.
Perhaps, what can really make Moutai lower its head is never the post-00s, nor is it fighting tigers, but economic laws.
I'm the hall master, I hope you find the content helpful, and we'll see you next time.
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