As the saying goes, there are three fires when a new official takes office. Su Jinkui, the new chairman of China Commercial Fund, is facing the "three mountains" of slowing scale, declining performance, and investment and research.
On June 22, China Commercial Fund announced that from June 21, 2024, Su Jinkui will serve as the chairman. Chen Mu, the former chairman of the board of directors, resigned on the same day.
China Commercial Fund was established in 2005, and its largest shareholder is Hualong Securities, holding 46% of the shares. Shenzhen Wuzhou Concord Investment Co., Ltd. and Jinan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. hold 34% and 20% of the shares of China Commercial Fund respectively, ranking the second and third largest shareholders respectively.
According to the announcement, Su Jinkui is currently the deputy secretary of the Party Committee, general manager and director of Hualong Securities Co., Ltd., and has served as the project manager of the investment banking department of Hualong Securities Co., Ltd., the accountant, deputy general manager and general manager of the planning and finance headquarters, and the chief accountant and deputy general manager of Hualong Securities Co., Ltd. He used to work in the Chemical Machinery Research Institute of the Ministry of Chemical Industry and Shanghai Hengke Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Chen Muyuan, the former chairman of China Commercial Fund, is also from Hualong Securities. In July 2019, when Chen Muyuan became the chairman of China Commercial Fund, the company's asset management scale was about 20 billion yuan, and by the end of the first quarter of 2024, the asset management scale of China Commercial Fund has increased to about 130 billion yuan, and the scale of non-monetary funds has exceeded 110 billion yuan, becoming an industry waist company.
1
Say goodbye to the era of high-growth scale
According to the data of Oriental Wealth Choice, since the second quarter of 2021, the asset scale of China Commercial Fund has continued to grow, especially from the third quarter of 2022, and has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters (that is, the third quarter of 2022, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2023), but this rapid growth trend came to an abrupt end in the second quarter of 2023, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 was only 1.82%.
In the last three quarters, the size of the equity fund of China Commercial Fund Company increased from 1.583 billion yuan to 1.680 billion yuan, an increase of 97 million yuan, and the scale of the mixed fund decreased from 60.474 billion yuan to 52.407 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.067 billion yuan. The total scale of equity funds decreased by 7.97 billion yuan.
During the same period, the scale of bond funds increased by 14.218 billion yuan from 45.074 billion yuan to 59.292 billion yuan, and the size of money market funds increased by 4.506 billion yuan from 11.792 billion yuan to 16.298 billion yuan. The total scale of fixed income funds increased by 18.724 billion yuan.
It is not difficult to see that the scale of China Commercial Fund is mainly maintained by low-risk products. In recent years, the performance of A-shares has been sluggish, investors' risk appetite has decreased, and fund companies have focused on fixed income products, which is also a common practice in the industry. However, for China Commercial Bank, a fund company that focuses on active equity investment, it means the weakening of the traditional longboard.
2
The performance of well-known fund managers has overturned
The market positions China Commercial Fund as a veteran fund company with active management capabilities as its core competitiveness.
However, in recent years, the active management of investments by China Commercial Fund has caused a lot of controversy. For example, Gao Bing, a fund manager who threw out the "three noes" investment theory, as a star fund manager of China Commercial Fund, put forward the concept of "no framework, no idea, no style", that is, "no longer want to bind yourself with any framework and concept, buy whatever can rise, all in order to serve the net value of the product".
In recent years, the overall market downturn, more structural opportunities, rapid rotation of styles, and intensified differentiation of different assets, this market environment not only makes it difficult for ordinary investors to deal with, but also brings great challenges to institutional investors. Gao Bing's "three noes" reflect his thinking on the changes in market preferences to a certain extent, but breaking through the shackles of rules and regulations is not the same as believing in the horse. Even in the face of innovative industries and emerging concepts, professional investors' decision-making should still follow the directional guidance of theoretical framework and basic logic.
As of June 25, Gaobing's investment performance at a glance Source: Oriental Wealth Choice
The 8 funds managed by Gao Bing since 2021 have all had negative returns during his tenure, with the smallest decline in China Commercial Shuangqing Pilot returning -36.39%, and the largest decline in China Commercial New Energy Vehicle Hybrid C returning -58.78%.
Among these 8 funds, only Huashang Smart Life and Huashang New Energy Vehicle A/C are industry theme funds, and the rest of the funds do not have clear industry allocation restrictions. In addition to the fact that the trend of specific industry sectors has a decisive impact on industry theme funds, the above performance data shows that Gao Bing's industry allocation strategy has indeed made obvious mistakes.
After reviewing the data of the fund's regular report, Uncle Wolf found that Gao Bing mainly held heavy positions in the computer and pharmaceutical industries this year, and these two industries are the industries that have led the market since the beginning of this year. Facts show that Gao Bing's advocacy of "finding out the stocks that can rise at each stage" has become chasing high or copying the bottom halfway up the mountain at the practical level.
According to the same source data, many equity fund managers under China Commercial such as Liang Hao and He Qifeng have also suffered losses of 30% or more during their tenure.
In contrast, Zhou Haidong, director of equity investment of China Commercial Fund, has performed steadily, managing 10 funds successively, only 2 of which have negative returns during their tenure, and the loss margin does not exceed 15%. Among the remaining 8 funds, 6 have double-double annualized returns, and the highest annualized return of the funds under management is China Commercial New Trend Preferred, reaching 16.48%.
3
Celebrities carrying flags are worried
Zhou Haidong currently manages a total fund of more than 30 billion yuan, and he alone carries half of the equity investment of China Commercial Fund. Star fund managers are like Xiao He in the growth history of China Commercial Fund, and their success or failure lies in this.
The first significant increase in the status of the China Commercial Fund industry occurred in 2010. At that time, Wang Feng, Sun Jianbo, Zhuang Tao, Tian Shengming, and Liang Yongqiang, the "Five Tiger Generals" of China Commercial Fund, won the annual championship and runner-up of equity funds that year, defeating the China Market Selection managed by Wang Yawei. In that year, the asset scale of China Commercial Fund rose along with the performance, exceeding 20 billion yuan for the first time and exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2015. But since then, the "Five Tiger Generals" have ended, and Zhuang Tao, Sun Jianbo and other core figures in investment and research have left their posts. In July 2018, Liang Yongqiang, then the general manager of China Commercial Fund, resigned, and since then, many fund managers have also chosen to leave, and the scale of China Commercial Fund has returned to 20 billion yuan that year.
It is worth noting that Liang Yongqiang's resignation occurred a year before Chen Muyuan became the chairman of China Commercial Fund. Before Su Jinkui took office recently, there were personnel changes in China Commercial Fund that Gao Bing stepped down from a number of funds.
Similar personnel turmoil and the hidden worries of star fund managers carrying the flag are once again placed in front of the new chairman.
4
Investment research is a hidden danger
This time, Su Jinkui replaced Chen Muyuan as the chairman of China Commercial Fund, and he also faced another problem similar to his predecessor - the management of the investment research system.
In 2018, the bond base of many Chinese commercial funds such as China Commercial Double Bond Fengli A/C stepped on the thunder, and the two bonds of 15 CEFC Bonds and 11 Kaidi MTN1 held by heavy positions defaulted, resulting in a sharp decline in the net value of related funds. The 16 Shenxin 01 bond of CEFC Shanghai International Group held by China Commercial Baoben No. 1 caused the fund to fall below par value due to the payment crisis. The two funds of China Commercial Stable Double Profit and China Commercial Stable Profit Increase stepped on the thunder * ST VATS, and the valuation of the stock was 0.55 yuan after the stock was lowered, with a reduction ratio of up to 95%.
In the past two years, there have been problematic stocks in the holdings of China Commercial Fund. In 2017 and 2018, the software company Dongfang Tong made large acquisitions and expansions, accumulating a large number of goodwill bubbles, losing money for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023, and the net profit loss in 2023 reached 673 million yuan. Starting in 2023, China Commercial Fund will focus on investing in Dongfang Tong, and at most, five funds under China Commercial Fund will be among the top 10 shareholders of Dongfang Tong in the quarter. How did such an obviously problematic company get selected into the fund company's stock pool and successfully become a heavy stock?
The flaws in the management of the investment and research system of China Commercial Fund need to be patched by the new chairman.
Source: Home News Financial Observer