Soybean meal market: According to agency data, in terms of U.S. beans, as the market believes that this round of precipitation in the main producing areas of U.S. beans may ease the pressure of drought, U.S. beans are under pressure, CBOT mainstream July contract quotation is 1162.75 cents/bu, at this stage, the planting cost of U.S. beans is 1192 cents/bu, and the 2411 contract is quoted at 1107 cents/bu, which is lower than the cost expectation!
At present, the U.S. soybean market is under pressure, the domestic Brazilian discount quotation has been slightly lowered, and in the spot market, soybean meal is facing severe pressure from strong supply and weak demand!
According to institutional analysis, as Brazil and Argentina soybeans into the stage of concentrated exports, domestic soybean imports surged, soybeans in July or will be 11.5 million tons, soybeans in August or will be 10.5 million tons, soybeans in September or will be 8.5 million tons, imported soybeans into the port surge, oil mill inventory levels remain high, the average weekly crushing volume will also be stable at about 2 million tons, soybean meal will also enter the stage of continuous accumulation!
However, on the demand side, due to the impact of high temperature in summer, the mentality of the breeding end of the fence is loosened, the enthusiasm for selling pigs has rebounded, and under the influence of superposition and production capacity, the level of pig inventory has dropped sharply, and the demand for feed consumption has decreased. The high temperature and humid environment is not conducive to the storage of downstream soybean meal, traders and feed enterprises are not willing to build warehouses, the mentality of cautious replenishment is higher, and the pressure of soybean meal expansion in some oil mills increases, and the phenomenon of urging is continuous!
Therefore, in the short term, the domestic spot soybean meal will continue to be under pressure, from the market data to understand, at present, coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, 43% protein soybean meal spot price in 3200 ~ 3260 yuan / ton, the price is at a low level in the year, the market is mainly weak and stable! Pay attention to the weather changes in the United States beans, the changes in market speculation and the guidance of the USDA's monthly supply and demand report!
At the same time, in the domestic gasoline and diesel market, the last round of refined oil pricing cycle, the crude oil market showed a trend of shock after the rise, the domestic crude oil change rate maintained a high level of operation, gasoline and diesel prices finally rose by 210 yuan and 200 yuan / ton, the oil price also refreshed the largest single increase in the year, equivalent to 92/95 gasoline generally rose 0.16 ~ 0.18 yuan / liter!
After the rise in oil prices, oil prices during the year showed a level of "6 up, 4 down, 3 stranded", gasoline and diesel prices rose by 590 yuan and 570 yuan during the year, and No. 92 gasoline rose by about 0.46 yuan/liter during the year, and the cost of travel and logistics remained high!
However, a new round of oil price adjustment cycle seamless, in accordance with the refined oil price adjustment mechanism, this is the 14th oil price adjustment of the year, the cycle is 0:00 on June 28 ~ 24:00 on July 11, by the sharp rise in crude oil prices overnight, the price of U.S. oil rose to 81.74 US dollars, cloth oil quotations rose to 86.39 US dollars / barrel, the first working day of this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil remained at 1.65%, oil prices are at the beginning, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to rise at 80 yuan / ton, 92/95 gasoline is estimated to rise by 0.06~0.07 yuan/liter!
Now, the beginning of a sharp rise in oil prices, a new round of oil price rises is the general trend! In particular, due to the peak season of summer energy consumption during this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates or will increase, in the complex geopolitical situation, the pressure of tight energy supply is strong, and the risk of a new round of oil price rises is high, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market! I hope that in this cycle, international oil prices can be lowered, although the chance is slim, but what if it happens......
Attached: On June 29, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in all provinces and cities across the country!
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