Corn market: Recently, the domestic corn contract quotation support has become stronger, and the main corn contract on June 27 rose above the 2,500 yuan/ton mark, which is mainly affected by the market's concern about the new corn production, and the market has the confidence of the institutions to be bullish on the future!
From the domestic spot point of view, recently, in the northeast region, the port corn quotation continues to rise, in Jinzhou Port, COFCO Zhongfu, Jinsuihong, Fuxin Shengfeng, Gangfeng grain trade, the mainstream enterprise quotation rose to 1.21 ~ 1.24 yuan / jin, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia mainstream deep processing quotation in 1.17 ~ 1.22 yuan / jin!
In the North China market, in Shandong, the listed price of mainstream deep-processed corn is 1.18~1.27 yuan/jin, and the quotation of most enterprises is 1.185~1.235 yuan/jin!
The spot price of corn is volatile, and the logic supporting the price increase of corn is as follows:
First, the Northeast region continues to rain, affected by low temperatures, the sunshine is insufficient, the growth of corn is extremely slow, and the market's concern about the reduction of new corn production in Northeast China has become stronger! In North China and Huanghuai markets, recently, there have been different degrees of drought weather in many corn producing areas, which has affected the emergence of corn seedlings and has an adverse impact on the yield!
Second, the supply of spot corn is tight, at present, the grassroots surplus grain inventory bottomed out, the channel selling grain mentality in general, by the new corn production reduction concerns, mainstream traders have a bullish outlook mentality, corn Tengku enthusiasm is not high, the supply pattern is relatively tight!
Third, the level of imported corn declined, the level of corn imports in May was 1.05 million tons, down 36.8% year-on-year, due to domestic restrictions on the import of corn to the bonded area, which inhibited the enthusiasm of some traders to import corn purchases, and there was a certain support for domestic trade corn!
Fourth, the arrival of goods in front of the enterprise continues to be insufficient, the daily consumption of the factory is difficult to meet, and many enterprises are affected by the decline in inventory, and the increase in just need to replenish the warehouse!
However, at present, the corn spot is still facing certain pressure, on the one hand, some channels have the operation of selling grain at high prices, and the domestic grain storage of old grain corn has increased the phenomenon of rotation; On the other hand, there is a phenomenon of substitution consumption in the corn market, and the substitution of new wheat and rice feed has increased, and the demand for corn has weakened!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, rationally, at present, the corn market is in a stage of strong shock, and the price center of gravity may maintain an upward trend, but the increase may be suppressed to a certain extent!
Gasoline and diesel market: The 13th oil price adjustment in 2024 has landed, this morning, the 92/95 gasoline at gas stations around the country has been raised by about 0.16~0.18 yuan/liter, the pressure on residents' travel costs has increased, and the cost of logistics and transportation has also increased significantly!
Now, the second quarter is coming to an end, in the first half of the year, the oil price adjustment has fully landed, gasoline and diesel prices have shown a trend of "4 down and 6 up", and oil prices continue to "rise more and fall less" situation, the author estimates that gasoline has risen by 590 yuan / ton during the year, which is equivalent to an increase in price of about 0.46 yuan!
According to the analysis of the institution, according to the oil price formation mechanism, on June 28, a new round of price adjustment cycle entered the first working day, referring to yesterday's crude oil changes, of which, U.S. oil rose $0.84 to $81.74 per barrel; Brent oil rose $1.14 to $86.39 a barrel. The comprehensive average value of crude oil is 84.07 US dollars / barrel, the domestic crude oil change rate is 1.65%, and the price of gasoline and diesel prices is 80 yuan / ton.
As we all know, domestic oil prices are guided by the international market and are adjusted every 10 working days, and this round of pricing cycle is from June 28 to July 11! Some institutions believe that as international crude oil prices enter the channel of seasonal rise, the rate of change of crude oil in this cycle may maintain a positive and strong trend, and oil prices may have a slight rise in support, focusing on the impact of the US consumer confidence index on the Fed's policy this week!
The following is the price of No. 92/95 gasoline at gas stations across the country on June 29, 2024, subject to the actual situation, after all, the quotation is based on the "three barrels of oil" as a reference, and the price of private gas stations in many places may be generally lower by about 1 yuan/liter......
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