Important information: down to 4.16 million tons! Scrap inventories hit a new low in nearly 4 years, can this still fall?
At the end of June, the raw material inventory of 255 steel mills was only 4.16 million tons (4.41 million tons in the same period of 2023, 5.25 million tons in the same period of 2022, and 7.6 million tons in the same period of 2021), the lowest level in nearly four years, and the available inventory days of scrap steel were only 8.4 days, far lower than the normal value of 10 days.
1. Futures market: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the rebound of futures snails is weak
The snail futures fluctuated at a low level, and the snail futures closed at 3544 on 10, down 7; The 10th volume closed at 3745, down 2. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,967.40 points, up 0.73%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,848.70 points, down 0.01%. Today, the top 20 major institutions of the snail increased their long positions by 26,000 hands, and the short positions decreased by 16,000 hands, and the position changes were significantly more. At present, the macro positive expectations are insufficient, the fundamentals are still weak, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the enthusiasm for taking the goods is not high, many areas are still affected by rain, transportation and downstream construction sites are affected, the support of the raw material side is limited, and the merchants at the end of the month are mainly returning funds, and there are many low-price resources in the market.
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Today, the country's finished products are up and down, the average price of various varieties fluctuates by 10-20, the average daily output of molten iron this week fell by 05,000 tons to 2,394,400 tons, and the molten iron has basically peaked, and the maintenance of steel mills may increase, and the cost support is limited. The demand in the off-season continues to be sluggish, and the base may continue in the later period, and there is no clear signal to stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that the snail will continue to fluctuate in the short term, pay attention to the snail support 3500 and the pressure 3600; The futures support is 3700 and the pressure is 3800.
Second, the market resources are tight, and scrap steel rises more and falls less
On June 28, the national scrap rose more and fell less. At present, the factors affecting the trend of scrap steel are: 1. The sales of finished materials in the off-season are not smooth, the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises is not high, and there are many production reduction actions; 2. Some areas are affected by rainy weather, and the transportation of scrap steel is restricted; 3. Upstream waste production has decreased, and scrap resources are tight as a whole. On the whole, the performance of terminal demand is flat, the production enthusiasm of steel mills is difficult to improve, and scrap steel is under pressure as a raw material. However, considering the tight sustainability of scrap resources, many steel companies are currently unable to meet the daily consumption, so it is expected that the short-term scrap prices may stop falling and stabilize under the weak supply and demand pattern.
3. Scrap market analysis: the supply of resources is tight, and the scrap inventory has hit a new low in the past four years
Under the high temperature and rainy off-season, there is a suspicion of further decline in steel demand, and the situation of oversupply seems to be intensifying. Such a tone also sets the direction of the snail - more down and less up. The main position of the snail in this period has once again broken through the 2 million mark, and there must be a large amount. However, from the perspective of the disk, the bears still occupy the active position, and the rebound is still weak.
Steel market fundamentals: At present, most steel mills are in the loss stage, and a slight reduction in production has helped steel mills better digest the finished product inventory. From the point of view of profit, the electric furnace is basically in a state of loss in the whole industry, and the long process coil is still about 50 yuan with a small profit, while the building materials products are mostly in a state of small loss.
In terms of two major raw materials: coke enterprises are also in the loss stage, so they have the desire to increase prices, and some areas have increased their prices. Although iron ore is quite profitable, it is due to foreign varieties and the limited decline in domestic pig iron production, resulting in better iron ore fundamentals than snails. On the whole, the cost still plays a short-term supporting role in the finished product.
This move is undoubtedly a good thing for scrap, at least there is a limit to the price reduction of steel mills. Returning to the fundamentals of scrap, as shown in the figure below, the tight balance continues, with the arrival of scrap from 255 steel mills slightly less than the daily consumption, coinciding with the off-season, high temperature and rainy weather often occur, and there is a slight delay in the supply of scrap, which exacerbates the phenomenon of scrap shortage.
In terms of inventory, the raw material inventory of scrap steel of 255 steel mills at the end of June was only 4.16 million tons (4.41 million tons in the same period of 2023, 5.25 million tons in the same period of 2022, and 7.6 million tons in the same period of 2021), the lowest level in the past four years, and the available inventory days of scrap steel were only 8.4 days, far lower than the normal value of 10 days. To sum up, if the futures do not fall below 3500, the probability of short-term shock operation of scrap is larger.
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Important information on the finished steel products in stock
The time of overseas interest rate cuts has not been determined, the domestic meeting has been postponed, the macro is in a window period, the positive sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the strong supply and weak demand have a greater impact on the bearish price. At the same time, the downstream demand is limited, the peak of hot metal is not enough to support the cost side, coupled with the impact of high temperature and rain in the off-season, the terminal start and the rate of funds in place are low, the overall procurement enthusiasm is weak, the market transaction is deserted, and the merchants are cautious and wait-and-see. So what will happen to steel prices next? Read on......
During May and June, the price of billets in Tangshan fell by 180 yuan in the past two months, and the price of billets in Tangshan fluctuated as much as 410 yuan during the year, which is comparable to Feitian Moutai!
Feitian Moutai
Recently, the price of Moutai and the company's stock price continued to fall, according to today's liquor price data data of the liquor data platform, on June 25, the wholesale reference price of bulk single bottle Feitian Moutai was 2150 yuan, down 440 yuan from 2590 yuan on April 25, and on June 25, the closing price of Kweichow Moutai was 1486.65 yuan, up 0.68%, but compared with the short-term high of 1746.92 yuan on May 7, it has fallen by more than 14%, and the market value has evaporated more than 100 billion yuan.
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Tangshan billet
In 2024, the situation of the steel industry is extremely severe, the black system is pessimistic, the billet price continues to fall, the billet price from the high point of 3700 yuan/ton on January 3 this year to the low point of 3290 yuan/ton for half a year, on June 28, Tangshan steel bad price is stable, reported at 3300 yuan, and the billet amplitude reached 410 yuan/ton (statistical date January 1-June 26).
The price of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Kunming and other markets fell by 10-20 yuan/ton; The terminal demand is small, the market transaction is weak, the steel begins to accumulate, the fundamental reality is weak, and the market has insufficient expectations for the macro good, but the cost side support is still there, and the steel futures price maintains a volatile operation.
Macro aspects: Xi Jinping said that we are planning and implementing major measures to further deepen reform in an all-round way, and continue to expand institutional opening-up; In May, the country issued 438.3 billion yuan of new special bonds, an increase of 350 billion yuan month-on-month and 162.8 billion yuan year-on-year; The IMF lowered its forecast for US real GDP growth to 2.6% in 2024.
Industry: The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.13%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points month-on-month, the average capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 51.37%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points month-on-month, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 149.2632 million tons, an increase of 430,500 tons month-on-month.
News: Approaching the time of Zhongtian and Yonggang to introduce a new price policy, due to the overall weakening of market prices in this decade, agents upside down promotion, steel mills can only choose to follow the fall and make up, it is expected that Zhongtian steel mill rebar will make up for 150-200 yuan/ton.
In the short term, the supply and demand of the steel market may show a weak balance pattern, and the macro side is still expected to be strong, and the steel price may be adjusted steadily.
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On June 28, the spot market stabilized and weakened
Among the 24 markets for building materials, 5 markets fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E was 3588 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 24 markets for hot coils, 13 markets fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil was 3721 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 23 markets for medium and heavy plates, 13 markets fell by 10-30 yuan/ton, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary plate was 3778 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Futures shock adjustment
On June 28, the main force of black rebar fell 7 to close at 3544, down 0.2%; The main force of hot coil fell 2, closing at 3745, down 0.05%; The main force of coking coal rose 7.5 to close at 1573.5, an increase of 0.48%; The main force of coke fell 4.5 to close at 2250, down 0.2%; Iron ore rose 1.5 to close at 825, up 0.18%.
Market analysis and comprehensive views
Recently, the steel market is weak in reality, and most of the domestic policies have failed, resulting in the decline in steel costs under the influence of weak fundamentals and speculative demand, which needs to be implemented and continue to be strengthened. Fundamentally, the price of steel prices is insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased due to seasonal impact; The iron ore continues to accumulate, and the molten iron is basically confirmed to have peaked, but the molten iron also has some support for the bottom. On the whole, in the lack of new bullish policy stimulus, the reality of the contradiction to drive the price continues to be under pressure, is expected to be stable tomorrow steel prices will be stable and weak, the range of 10-20 yuan / ton.
Factors influencing the price of steel
01. The U.S. weekly jobless claims data fell slightly, revealing the resilience of the job market
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 233,000, with an expectation of 236,000, and the previous value was revised to 239,000 from 238,000, and the four-week average was 236,000, and the previous value was revised to 233,000 from 232,750.
It was revised to 233,000, although U.S. job seekers have not noticeably lost confidence amid global supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures. Under the dual pressure of environmental protection policies and technological innovation, some traditional steel jobs may face adjustment, and high-skilled, high-value-added jobs may become a new bright spot in the job market, which has a certain test for the steel industry and has certain disadvantages in the short term.
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02. The start of the independent electric arc furnace steel plant remains unchanged
On June 28, 2024, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 70.40%, flat month-on-month and an increase of 2.80 percentage points year-on-year. The average capacity utilization rate was 51.37%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year.
The average operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.40%, reflecting that mainland steel maintained a stable supply rhythm and showed that enterprises are actively responding to market expectations. However, the average capacity utilization rate fell to 51.37%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points from the previous month. This means that although the operating rate remains high, with the rising cost of raw materials and the tightening of environmental protection policies, steel mills are looking for a new balance in optimizing production efficiency. The mainland steel industry is in a dynamic equilibrium, with both stable operation and transformation challenges, which is good for the steel industry in the near term and good for long-term development.
03. In May, the mainland's foreign trade imports and exports continued to show a steady upward trend
In May 2024, the national trade promotion system issued a total of 568,300 certificates of origin, ATA carnets, commercial certificates and other certificates, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%. This shows that the mainland's foreign trade imports and exports continue to show a steady upward trend, showing the strong resilience and vitality of the mainland's foreign trade. The amount of RCEP certificate of origin visas in the national trade promotion system was 523 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the number of visas was 18,677, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%; The export destination countries include 12 member countries, including Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam.
In May 2024, the national trade promotion system issued certificates of origin and other certificates, a significant increase over the same period of the previous year, indicating that the mainland's foreign trade imports and exports continued to show a steady upward trend. With the increase in export orders, the demand for domestic steel production has also increased, and the demand for raw materials such as iron ore and coal has also risen. The significant increase in the number of certificates issued by the trade promotion system in May 2024 is a strong proof of the resilience and vitality of the mainland's foreign trade, and also brings new development opportunities for the steel industry, which is good for the domestic steel industry.
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Today's steel mill market summary and trend forecast
Today's ex-factory price of steel mills is mainly stable, relying on the cost of iron ore to pull up the steel price for only 1 day, this week's steel mill profitability fell sharply by 9.09% to 42.86%, the industrial demand is still weak, the macro is slightly better but there is no obvious drive; To sum up, it is expected that the ex-factory price of steel mills will be stable and weak tomorrow.
Steel mill price adjustment on Friday, June 28, 2024
First, Shanxi Jinnan building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Shanxi Jinnan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. held stable ex-factory prices for some products, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E is 3610 yuan/ton, and Φ6mm plus 180 yuan/ton;
2. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ14mmHRB400E rebar is 3650 yuan/ton.
3. The price of the high line is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 is 3540 yuan/ton, and Φ6mm plus 70 yuan/ton;
Second, Shanxi Zhongyang building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Shanxi Zhongyang lowered the ex-factory price of some products by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. Rebar is lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the current execution price of Φ18-22mmHRB400E is 3540 yuan/ton, Φ12-14mm plus 200 yuan/ton, Φ16mm plus 20 yuan/ton, Φ25mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ28-32mm plus 180 yuan/ton;
2. The high line is raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8mmQ195 high line is 3595 yuan/ton.
3. The coiled snail is lowered by 10 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8mmHRB400E coiled snail is 3580 yuan/ton.
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Third, Shougang Changzhi building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the price of Shougang Changzhi building materials remained stable and adjusted as follows:
1、螺纹钢价格持稳：Φ18-22mmHRB400E出厂基价3530元/吨，Φ12mm加200、Φ14mm加180、Φ16mm加30、Φ25mm加30、Φ28-32mm加120；
2. The price of coiled snails is stable: the ex-factory base price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E is 3580 yuan/ton; Φ6mm plus 200 yuan/ton.
3. The price of the high line is stable: the ex-factory base price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 is 3610 yuan/ton; Φ6mm plus 100 yuan/ton.
Fourth, the price adjustment of Tiangang plate
On June 28, Tiangang lowered the ex-factory price of some products by 20 yuan/ton, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
The plate was lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of 20mm*2000Q235 plate is 3630 yuan/ton.
Fifth, Shanxi Jingang building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the ex-factory price of some products of Shanxi Jingang was partially raised by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The rebar is raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ20mmHRB400E is 3500 yuan/ton, Φ12-14mm plus 200 yuan/ton, Φ16mm plus 70 yuan/ton, Φ18mm, Φ22mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ25mm plus 40 yuan/ton, Φ28mm plus 120 yuan/ton;
2. The coiled snail was raised by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E coiled snail is 3750 yuan/ton.
3. The high line is raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmQ195/Q235 high line is 3510 yuan/ton.
Sixth, Inner Mongolia Yaxin building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the ex-factory prices of Inner Mongolia Yaxin, the prices of threads, wire rods and coiled snails remained stable
1. The price of rebar is stable: 18-25mm HRB400E specification is 3660 yuan/ton, 12-14mm plus 140 yuan/ton, 16mm plus 30 yuan/ton, 28-32mm plus 50 yuan/ton.
2. The price of coiled snail is stable: the price of 8-10mm HRB400E material is 3680 yuan/ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan/ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan/ton;
3. The price of the high line is stable: the price of 8-10mm HPB300 is 3600 yuan/ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan/ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan/ton;
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Seventh, Shanxi Gaoyi building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Shanxi Gaoyi held the ex-factory prices of some products stable, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ18-22mmHRB400E rebar is 3490 yuan/ton.
2. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E coiled snails is 3670 yuan/ton.
3. The price of the high line is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 is 3660 yuan/ton, and Φ6mm plus 200 yuan/ton;
8. Yutian Jinzhou wire rod price adjustment
On June 28, the ex-factory price of Yutian Jinzhou wire rod was lowered by 10 yuan (ton price, the same below):
1. The ex-factory price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high line is 3590 yuan; 6.5/12mm plus 60 yuan;
2. The ex-factory price of 6mm is 3710 yuan;
Nine, Shanxi Meijin building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Shanxi Meijin held stable ex-factory prices for some products, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ18-22mmHRB400E is 3540 yuan/ton, Φ12-14mm plus 200 yuan/ton, Φ16mm, Φ25mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ28mm, Φ32mm plus 180 yuan/ton;
2. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E coiled snails is 3590 yuan/ton.
3. The price of the high line is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 is 3590 yuan/ton, and Φ6mm plus 100 yuan/ton;
10. Jiangsu Nangang building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the price of Jiangsu Nangang construction steel remained stable, and the price adjustment information is as follows:
Thread: The price is stable, and the execution price of Φ16-20mmHRB400E rebar is 3590 yuan/ton;
Remarks: 12mm plus 100 yuan, 14mm plus 60 yuan, 22mm and 25mm plus 30 yuan, 28mm, 32mm plus 60 yuan.
11. Masteel building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the ex-factory prices of some Masteel products remained stable, and the specific adjustments were as follows:
1. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ18mmHRB400E in Hefei is 4470 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ18mmHRB400E in Maanshan is 4460 yuan/ton;
2. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E in Hefei is 4760 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E in Maanshan is 4750 yuan/ton;
Twelve, Shiheng special steel building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Shiheng Special Steel held stable ex-factory prices for some products, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ22mmHRB400E is 3530 yuan/ton, Φ10mm plus 150 yuan/ton, Φ12mm plus 120 yuan/ton, Φ14mm plus 90 yuan/ton, Φ16mm, Φ18mm, Φ20mm, Φ25mm plus 60 yuan/ton, Φ28-32mmHRB400E plus 120 yuan/ton, Φ36-40mm plus 250 yuan/ton;
2. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ10mmHRB400E is 3780 yuan/ton, Φ8mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ6mm plus 350 yuan/ton, and Φ12mmH plus 200 yuan/ton;
3. The price of the high line is stable, and the execution price of Φ10mmHPB300 is 3780 yuan/ton, Φ8mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ6mmHPB300 plus 350 yuan/ton, and Φ12mm plus 200 yuan/ton;
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13. Shandong Laigang Yongfeng building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Laigang Yongfeng held stable ex-factory prices for some products, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The price of rebar is stable, and the execution price of Φ22mmHRB400E is 3530 yuan/ton, Φ10mm plus 150 yuan/ton, Φ12mm plus 120 yuan/ton, Φ14mm plus 90 yuan/ton, Φ16mm, Φ18mm, Φ20mm, Φ25mm plus 60 yuan/ton, Φ28-32mm plus 120 yuan/ton, Φ36-40mm plus 250 yuan/ton;
2. The price of coiled snails is stable, and the execution price of Φ10mmHRB400E is 3780 yuan/ton, Φ8mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ6mm plus 350 yuan/ton, and Φ12mmH plus 200 yuan/ton;
3. The price of the high line is stable, and the execution price of Φ10mmHPB300 is 3780 yuan/ton, Φ8mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ6mmHPB300 plus 350 yuan/ton, and Φ12mm plus 200 yuan/ton;
14. Jiangsu Hongtai building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Jiangsu Hongtai lowered the ex-factory price of some products by 30 yuan, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
Rebar is lowered by 30 yuan, and the current execution price of Φ16-20mm HRB400E is 3380 yuan/ton, Φ10mm plus 160 yuan/ton, Φ12mm plus 100 yuan/ton, Φ14mm plus 50 yuan/ton, Φ22mm plus 30 yuan/ton, Φ25mm plus 50 yuan/ton, Φ28mm, Φ32mm plus 60 yuan/ton;
Fifteenth, Anhui Yangtze River building materials price adjustment
On June 28, the ex-factory price of building materials in Hefei was stable, and the adjustment was as follows:
1. Thread: the price is stable, and the execution price of Φ18mmHRB400E rebar is 3550 yuan/ton;
2. Snails: The price is stable, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E snail is 3830 yuan/ton;
16. Rizhao Iron and Steel (Lecong) plate price adjustment
On June 28, Rizhao Iron and Steel (Lecong) held stable ex-factory prices for some products, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. The cold forming price is stable, and the execution price of 1.0mm*1250*CRECC cold forming is 4170.5 yuan/ton.
2. The price of hot-dip galvanized sheet is stable, and the execution price of 1.0mm*1250*CDX51D+Z hot-dip galvanized sheet is 4490.5 yuan/ton.
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17. Fujian Sangang building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Fujian Sangang held the ex-factory prices of some products stable and adjusted as follows:
1. Thread: the price remains unchanged, and the current execution price of Φ18mmHRB400E is 3700 yuan/ton;
2. High line: the price remains unchanged, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 high line is 4000 yuan/ton;
3. Snails: The price remains unchanged, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E snails is 4050 yuan/ton;
18. Kunshan Iron and Steel Building Materials Price Adjustment
On June 28, Kunshan Iron and Steel made specific adjustments to the ex-factory prices of some products as follows:
1. Rebar is lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ18mmHRB400E is 3740 yuan/ton, Φ12-14mm plus 180 yuan/ton, Φ16mm, Φ20mm, Φ22mm, Φ25mm plus 80 yuan/ton, Φ28mm plus 200 yuan/ton, Φ32mm plus 250 yuan/ton, Φ36mm plus 450 yuan/ton, Φ40mm plus 550 yuan/ton.
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E is 3990 yuan/ton, Φ6mm plus 330, Φ12mm plus 100 yuan/ton;
3. The high line is raised by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 is 3940 yuan/ton, Φ6mm plus 200 yuan/ton, and Φ12mm plus 50 yuan/ton;
19. Zunyi Fuxin building materials price adjustment
On June 28, Zunyi Fuxin lowered the ex-factory price of some products by 20 yuan/ton, and the specific adjustments are as follows:
1. Rebar is lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the current execution price of Φ16-22mmHRB400E is 3430 yuan/ton, Φ12, 14mm, Φ25mm plus 20 yuan/ton, Φ28mm plus 80 yuan/ton, Φ32mm plus 130 yuan/ton;
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E is 3570 yuan/ton, and Φ6mm plus 230 yuan/ton;
The latest national steel prices on June 28
On June 28, the mainstream of national steel prices was weak, the market repeatedly fluctuated in a narrow range, the upward drive was insufficient, the long-short game near the spot cost line intensified, the overall downward trend did not change, and the spot was still weak. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fall tomorrow.
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Today's building materials prices: weak operation
Today, the price of building materials in the country fell by 10-20, and the short-term molten iron remained high, supporting the price of iron ore, but the price of finished steel was still weak, and the profits of steel mills continued to be compressed. Steel prices are subject to weak demand, and it is expected that the price of building materials will be weak tomorrow;
Today's hot-rolled price: downward
Today, the national hot-rolled price fell 10-20, the current capital investment is expected to weaken, this week's hot rolling, cold-rolled production and demand increased, inventory declined, spot prices were suppressed by the weakening of the transaction, the transaction weakened, and the price of hot coil is expected to run weakly tomorrow;
Today's cold-rolled prices: individual declines
Today, the national cold-rolled price fell by 10-30. At present, the downstream procurement volume is still small, the transaction has decreased significantly compared with last week, the shipment of high-priced resources has been blocked, the downstream demand is weak, and the transaction has not been smooth in the near future, and the market price is expected to be adjusted steadily tomorrow;
Today's plate price: a slight decline
Today, the national plate fell 10-20, the inventory of raw iron ore increased, the output of molten iron showed a peak, suppressing prices, and the high level of steel inventory suppressed the rebound space, and it is expected that the plate will run weakly tomorrow;
Today's hot-rolled strip prices: probing run
Today, the national hot-rolled strip rose 10-30. The black series continues to fall, the demand for the industrial end is still weak, and the price of strip steel is expected to be weak tomorrow;
Today's large and medium-sized timber prices: the main stable operation
Today, the country's large and medium-sized materials rose 20, the profile market this week is not good, the price continues to fall, the macro is not good to promote, the current market shutdown to inventory is relatively large, the overall situation is becoming more and more sluggish, it is expected that tomorrow's large and medium-sized weak operation;
Today's welded pipe price: shock adjustment
Today, the price of welded pipes in the country rose and fell by 10%. The overall price of strip steel remained stable, the profit loss of pipe mills continued, the willingness to produce decreased, and some of them were suspended for maintenance. It is expected that the price of pipes will fall tomorrow.
Tomorrow's steel market price trend forecast
Today, the rebound heat of the steel market fell again, and it returned to below 3500. On the one hand, the market cannot find a driving point for the rise after the previous decline. On the other hand, the market has accumulated too much negative sentiment and still needs time to digest. How will the market go tomorrow, look down......
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The influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
1. The sales volume of charging heavy trucks in May exceeded that of the whole year of 2022
Since 2024, the mainland new energy heavy truck market has continued to be hot, doubling in four of the first five months, with an average monthly growth rate of 136%. After May, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2024 have exceeded 20,700 units, reaching 20,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 139%. (Sina Finance)
2. In the second quarter, the supply and demand of second-hand new houses increased by three percent
In the second quarter of 2024, the overall property market continued to repair weakly, on the one hand, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch rebounded slightly, on the other hand, thanks to the favorable landing of the new policy + the mid-year sprint of real estate companies, the transaction in the second quarter recovered steadily, the first-line resilience was better than the second and third lines, and the transaction stopped falling and stabilized in June. (Finance Associated Press)
3. The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to a two-and-a-half-year high
The latest U.S. jobless claims rose to their highest level since late 2021 and could be a warning sign for the job market. In the week ended June 15, continuing jobless claims came in at 1.839 million, higher than market expectations of 1.824 million and the previous week's adjusted 1.821 million. (Finance Associated Press)
In terms of the spot market
Today's rebar: steady and falling
With the frequent occurrence of high temperature and rainy weather, some construction sites have begun to shut down, the characteristics of the off-season of terminal demand are more obvious, after the rebound of the disk a few days ago, it has cooled down rapidly, and the upward drive is still weak, and it is expected that the rebar will run steadily in the middle of tomorrow.
Today's hot roll: a narrow decline
In reality, weak demand still inhibits the rebound of finished products, market sentiment is difficult to repair in the short term, inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the current supply is still at a high level, and it is expected that tomorrow's hot roll will run weakly.
Today's middle board: stable and weak
The output, inventory and demand of the medium plate are declining simultaneously, the spot price has rebounded in stages, and the market transaction has weakened.
Strip today: Weak operation
Continuous rainfall in many places, affecting the transportation of goods, weak market shipments, the current weak reality dominates, the spot decline is faster than the disk, the short-term price is difficult to boost, and it is expected that the strip steel will run steadily in the middle of tomorrow.
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Today's profile: the main steady fall
At present, billets still have a certain supporting role in the finished steel products, but there is no obvious explosive growth in downstream demand, and the sharp rise in prices is unsustainable.
Today's pipe: steady and falling
The price of the disk fell, the market transaction continued to shrink, the downstream procurement was more wait-and-see, the current strip steel quotation as a whole remained stable, the profit loss of the pipe factory continued, the production willingness decreased, and the pipe is expected to run steadily in the middle of tomorrow.
In terms of the raw material market
Billets Today: Steady Operation
The rolling enterprises themselves are still cautious about billet resources, coupled with the blockage of the disk, the technical side is still not optimistic, the raw material support is limited, and the billet is expected to be slightly lowered tomorrow.
Iron ore today: Oscillating operation
At present, the iron ore inventory is at a high level, and the overseas iron ore shipment is climbing at a high level, with a significant increase. The superimposed ore industry is bearish, and the upper space is also limited, and it is expected that the mine price will run under pressure tomorrow.
Today's coke: stable operation
The support of molten iron in steel mills is still there, the rigid demand for coke still exists, and the enthusiasm for procurement has increased, but considering that it is currently in the off-season of steel consumption, the transaction of finished products is still not ideal, and it is expected that coke will continue to operate steadily tomorrow.
Scrap today: stable and weak
Scrap inventories remain low and supply is slightly tight, but terminal demand remains weak in the off-season for steel consumption. In addition, the electric furnace plant is in a state of loss, and it is difficult to improve in the short term, and it is expected that the scrap steel will run weakly tomorrow.
Today's Pig Iron: The Lord Steady Tone
Coke is temporarily stable after the rise of the landing, iron ore continues to operate under pressure, the cost is still expected to weaken, coupled with the actual demand of the downstream is limited, it is still mainly based on rigid demand procurement, and it is expected that pig iron will run steadily in the middle of tomorrow.
Integrated perspectives
The motivation of short-term steel mills to reduce and limit production is insufficient, and there is still a certain demand for raw materials to be purchased and replenished under the condition of high molten iron; In addition, this week's steel production rebounded significantly, inventories increased again, and the data performance was relatively average. Coupled with the lack of macro news in the short term, it is expected that steel prices will stabilize tomorrow and run in a downward range, with a range of 10-30 yuan.
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Decision-making suggestions: It is recommended that high-inventory steel traders take the initiative to reduce their warehouses to prevent risks, just demand and terminal to ensure the demand cycle, reduce prices and purchase less, and operate steadily.
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