On the last trading day of June, the market was divided and involuted. A new high on one side and a new low on the other side torments the mentality of many people.
The collective high of national bonds, especially the 30-year variety, has become a "demon stock" in the large series. As long as A-shares are weak, they are strong. Obviously, the entire market lacks long-term funds for counter-cyclical layout, and it is looking for a place to hold together every day.
Among the equity ETFs, the central enterprises collectively rose sharply, and the win-win series (behind which is the FTSE China State-owned Enterprises Open Win-Win Index, including China's state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises win-win) collectively reached a new high, and this kind of sharp rise is also rare.
This kind of theme we have said, is the purest "special assessment" in the market, three barrels of oil, the three major operators plus infrastructure, coal and steel, is the main direction of state-owned assets "value preservation and appreciation", everyone understands. Someone leads the rhythm, and in a weak environment, the little active money left in the market will come to the group.
China's oil soared 6%, why? It is likely to be a protective disc gripper + hedging group, without any industry and fundamental logic support. However, everyone should pay attention to the fact that it will rise by 6% and stand up the index, and the funds required will only be more than 2 billion, and it can also drive other active funds in the market to come together, compared with the cost performance of buying CSI 300 ETF to protect the disk. It seems that the disk protection funds are also being adjusted.
Of course, there is also a category of overseas themes that hit a new high, not to mention this. You rise and I fall, and what makes investors lose is faith.
Then again, to protect the market or use medium valuation, high dividends, and treasury bonds to form a hedging group, it means that the market is too weak. Instead, it will lead to a panic fall on the other side of the theme. Yangtze River Power's extreme grouping, which is ugly to say, is contrary to value investment, and power generation companies have such a high price-earnings ratio and are talented.
Securities ETFs hit a new low in several years, and Oriental Wealth and other intraday flash crashes are all manifestations of institutional liquidity. Moreover, tighter regulations and IPO regulations have made it difficult for securities companies to make money, let alone a bull market.
Photovoltaic has reached a new low, the industry is backward and has serious overcapacity, and overseas obstacles have stuck the plan to roll up the world. Of course, it is also an institutional variety, and now it is an institutional bear market, and liquidity has been weakening.
The new low in medical care, which is also a typical institutional variety, is trapped by liquidity. This medical ETF also has a considerable weight, and it is CXO and other industries that are deeply constrained by overseas.
In addition to them, there are a large number of themes that are about to test the previous low, or prepare for the "double bottom", big consumption, new energy, big medicine, these institutions lack liquidity support, foreign capital does not buy domestic capital has no money to buy, and there is money to go to the group in the special assessment.
Therefore, from the thematic direction, the special valuation of high dividends led by big technology driven by consumer electronics, computing power, and storage, as well as electric power and state-owned enterprises, are the two remaining popular consensus directions. Of course, not to mention overseas, faith rises and falls, this is very serious.
If you still want to control and allocate them from a rational perspective in the market, it is safer than you "low" others.
Judging from the capital side of ETFs last week, in addition to the disk protection funds, banks, gems, securities, and science and technology also have a small amount of funds entering the market, but the strength is relatively weak, which is roughly the same as the outflow of funds.
From the perspective of market liquidity, there is currently a "double bottom", but it is still far from returning to the risk line. Since there is no longer a slow bull, A-shares have become a capital-led rather than value-led market. So, liquidity is almost always the primary market consideration.
In the face of such a difficult market, we look forward to the important meeting next month, which will be released as scheduled to restore market confidence. You have countless reasons to scold him, but in your bones you still love him, right?