This year, all regions have issued pension adjustment rules, including Shandong, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, etc., which everyone is more concerned about.
There is no suspense that the pension increase is less than last year's calculation according to this year's plan. After all, the average adjustment rate announced by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in 2024 is 3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the 3.8% in 2023.
In addition, we also found a feature, that is, the increase in the amount and the proportion of increase in high pension income is relatively low, is it that the pension "high limit" measures that have been called for many years have been put in place? Let's start by analyzing why we say that.
As we all know, the adjustment rules will divide the pension increase into four parts, namely the fixed amount increase, the increase in the linked cumulative payment period, the linked monthly basic pension increase and the increase in the old age.
Among them, the increase in the basic pension in the linked month is proportional to the amount originally received each month, and the more pensions, the higher the increase.
For example, the increase rate of the monthly basic pension in a certain place is 1.2%, and the monthly income of 3,000 yuan can be increased by 36 yuan, and those with 6,000 yuan can be increased by 72 yuan, which is twice as much as the former.
In terms of the quota increase, the two are exactly the same, either 30 yuan, or 40 yuan or other numbers, and there will be no difference.
Therefore, the larger the adjustment ratio of the increase in the basic pension of the linked month, the more cost-effective it is for those with high pension incomes. Theoretically speaking, if the local adjustment rules only have a linked monthly basic pension, such as a direct increase of 3% on the original basis, then high pension income will be the happiest.
Based on the above theory, let's take a look at what is the basic pension adjustment ratio of the four regions that have announced the pension adjustment rules this year.
Relatively high is the Tibet, Guangxi and Fujian programs, this year's linked monthly basic pension increase given the adjustment ratio is 1.81%, 1.34% and 1.29%.
In 2023, there are several regions with a peg adjustment ratio of more than 2%, but this year there is none, and more than 1% is considered relatively high.
The sharp decline in the increase in the basic pension in the linked month has directly affected the increase in the amount of high pension income, to give a specific trial example.
Assuming that a retiree is over 65 years old, the cumulative payment period is 40 years, and the original monthly income is 6,000 yuan pension, this level of pension is much higher than the average level of corporate retirees in the country, I calculated the respective increase and growth ratio according to the 2024 pension adjustment rules in several regions, which are as follows.
Shandong: an increase of 123.1 yuan per month, an increase of 2.05%;
Jiangxi: an increase of 112.5 yuan per month, an increase of 1.88%;
Anhui: an increase of 118.5 yuan per month, an increase of 1.98%;
Hebei: an increase of 128.4 yuan per month, an increase of 2.14%;
Jiangsu: an increase of 128.5 yuan per month, an increase of 2.14%;
Remember what the national average percentage of increase was? This year, it is 3%, but the 6,000 yuan pension income in the four regions that have announced the adjustment rules not only did not reach this increase in the proportion but also the gap is still very large.
Even if the increase in the old age tilt can be obtained, the increase rate is still not high, and it rarely reaches 3%.
From this point of view, the "high limit" is vividly reflected in this year's pension adjustment, at least in the four regions that have announced the detailed rules. But is that really the case? I'm afraid that's not the case, we changed the above condition to a monthly income of 3,000 yuan, and the cumulative payment period is 28 years, and then calculate.
For example, under the Shandong pension adjustment rules, the retiree can increase by 83.6 yuan per month this year, with an increase of 2.79%; For another example, the increase under the Anhui adjustment plan is 85.5 yuan, and the increase rate is 2.85%.
In the case of not being able to obtain the increase in the tilt of the elderly, although the proportion of low pension income is higher than that of high pension income, it is also difficult to achieve the adjustment ratio of 3%, only those who have a monthly income of 2,500 yuan or even less than 2,000 yuan pension income will inevitably get more than 3%.
Therefore, the main reason for the low proportion of high pension income this year is not to vigorously promote the "low and high", but still related to the large decline in the overall adjustment ratio.