The output value and proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries are the key elements of urban industrial competition. Judging from the added value of the tertiary industry and the revenue of the service industry in the 26 trillion GDP cities in 2023 and since the first quarter of this year, Beijing and Shanghai have a large lead and a steady year-on-year increase, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in the second echelon, and Shenzhen has faintly accelerated the pace of catching up with Guangzhou in this field. The above-mentioned first-tier cities are also the main carriers of high-end tertiary industries, and there are few opportunities in other cities. Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities have excellent performance in the tertiary industry, but it has also caused the proportion of tertiary industry to be too high, the proportion of secondary industry to decline too fast, and face the question of "industrial hollowing".
In 2023, most trillion cities will fail to outperform the national average in the added value of the tertiary industry
In fact, key cities have formed a strong third echelon in terms of the three industries, with Beijing and Shanghai leading the way, Guangzhou and Shenzhen following closely behind, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Tianjin and other cities forming a strong third echelon, and important provincial capitals, cities with separate planning, and even strong prefecture-level cities ranking in the front end of the fourth echelon.
However, the development of the tertiary industry is susceptible to internal and external factors, and the instability is greater.
In 2023, more than half of the 26 cities with a GDP of one trillion yuan will not outperform the national average of 5.8% year-on-year. The growth rate of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region has all declined, and Foshan's growth rate is at the bottom of the trillion-dollar GDP cities. Except for Shanghai, Hangzhou and Changzhou in the Yangtze River Delta region, the growth rate of the remaining trillion-dollar GDP cities all declined. Tianjin in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Jinan in Shandong Province did not grow as expected. In the central and western regions, Chengdu performed well, but the growth rate of Changsha, Zhengzhou, Xi'an and other major tertiary cities slowed down. Fujian's trillion-dollar cities of Fuzhou and Quanzhou have slowed down, and Xiamen's tertiary industries in Jidan City continue to exert force.
The slowdown in the tertiary industry in the first quarter of 2024 may cause the GDP performance of many cities to fall short of expectations
In the first quarter of this year, the start of key cities was different, some cities achieved a "good start", some cities expanded steadily, and some cities did not meet expectations, and the slowdown of the tertiary industry is one of the important factors. Industries such as finance, Internet, and real estate that are not developing well are all tertiary industries.
Judging from the added value and growth rate of the tertiary industry in the first quarter, nearly half of the cities with GDP of one trillion yuan have failed to beat the national average of 5.0%.
The growth of the tertiary industry in the cities of the Pearl River Delta region has slowed down across the board, with Foshan and Dongguan leading the decline, and Dongguan's growth rate is at the bottom of the trillion-dollar GDP cities. Among the cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Wuxi all performed well, while Nanjing and Hefei fell by about 3%. Qingdao in Shandong and Fuzhou in Fujian fell little year-on-year. In the central and western regions, Chengdu and Chongqing continued to perform well, while Changsha, Zhengzhou and Xi'an still experienced a significant decline in the tertiary industry.
According to the published data, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi and other cities in the Pearl River Delta have a double-digit year-on-year growth rate, and Guangzhou, the first city of the Pearl River Delta, although the year-on-year growth rate of the service industry revenue has not reached double digits, it is higher than the growth rate of Guangdong Province. Chongqing's tertiary industry, which has always attached great importance to the secondary industry, continues to grow steadily, but Chengdu may have some ups and downs in the most proud tertiary industry.
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou occupy the majority of the high-end tertiary industry, and other cities have fewer opportunities
In the four municipalities directly under the central government, the five cities with independent planning, and most of the provincial capitals, the service industry accounts for more than 60%. During this period, how to define the specific scope of secondary and tertiary industries has been controversial in the industry. However, the high-end tertiary industry, the basic recognition is finance, software, information services, consulting, law firms, accounting firms, etc., most of the high-quality resources in these fields are concentrated in Beijing and Shanghai, Shenzhen and then take away some shares, and the rest of the cities account for a less. The high-end tertiary industry has a head effect and a certain monopoly.
The real industrial "hexagonal" city will never give up the investment or even competition for high-quality secondary production projects, Shanghai's preferential treatment of Tesla, Beijing's investment in BAIC, Xiaomi, etc., are all good examples. It can even be said that except for Beijing, no city has the confidence to give up the secondary industry, even if it is only a temporary strategic adjustment. Shanghai and Shenzhen have been trying their best to increase their voice in the field of high-end secondary and tertiary industries, for example, the blowout of Shanghai's Internet industry has benefited it from the increase in tertiary industry, and Shenzhen's persistent investment in the secondary industry is also obvious to all. Shanghai and Shenzhen's continuous efforts to high-end secondary industries have brought spillover effects, which are conducive to driving the development of the entire Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions respectively.
Hong Kong, China's tertiary industry accounts for more than 93%, and it competes for the third position of the global financial center Singapore, the tertiary industry accounts for 75%, Singapore has a large-scale, huge output value of petrochemical industry and is still increasing the size of the electronic information manufacturing industry. Hong Kong's industry is significantly less resilient than Singapore's.
The service industry often accounts for more than 80% or even 90% of the world's top international metropolises, but this iron law is obviously not fully applicable to Chinese cities, even Beijing and Shanghai, which are still far from the truly global industrial "hexagonal" cities of New York and London.
There is no optimal solution for the proportion of secondary and tertiary productions, and the ecological niche is determined according to local and time conditions
"The proportion of secondary industry cannot be low" is an important indicator of whether the development of urban industries is benign in the traditional concept. There is no standard answer to how many cities have the best ratio of secondary and tertiary industries. Different locations and resource endowments make cities must take the road of differentiated development.
Hangzhou and Chengdu, including Zhengzhou and Changsha, are key cities where the proportion of secondary industry has declined a lot in recent years, and the proportion of tertiary industry has continued to rise, and the proportion of secondary industry has fallen to below 30%, which is also the reason for the "hollowing out of industry". Although the proportion of secondary industry in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou is also around 30%, their comprehensive and economic resilience are clearly better than those of Hangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Changsha. In some urban areas of Beijing and Shanghai, the proportion of tertiary industry is as high as 98%, but Beijing and Shanghai both have strong secondary and advanced manufacturing industries. The tertiary industry in Hangzhou's West Lake District accounts for more than 92%, but Hangzhou's advanced manufacturing industry is not convincing enough, and the lack of high-quality manufacturing jobs and secondary industry jobs that ordinary people can also employ in large numbers may be the reason why Hangzhou has not really stood on the "fifth city of China".
The prosperity and development of the tertiary industry must be supported by a strong secondary industry. In this regard, Chengdu's approach is to develop urban industry and promote "industrial upstairs", and this track is the "industrial three" Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou early implementation of the initiative.