4 sets of data lead to the statement of the new village chief to "open the door to accept the market".
What are the most demanded requirements in the market?
Can 5 poor and 6 desperate usher in "7 turnovers"?
Dear investors, I am a good word
Today is Sunday, June 30th
The topics discussed with you today are:
4 sets of data lead to the statement of the new village chief to "open the door to accept the market".
What are the most demanded requirements in the market?
Can 5 poor and 6 desperate usher in "7 turnovers"?
First topic:
Four sets of data led to a new statement by the new village chief
The first set of data: this week's weekly line is six consecutive negatives
11 indices fell another 0.56%, 0.17%, and 0.97% this week
1.03%、2.38%、4.13%、6.1%、3.13%、
3.15%, 2.34% and 2.96%
This is a weekly decline
The second set of data: June opened a big moon black line
11 indices fell 3.5%, 2.73%, 3.3%,
3.87%、5.51%、6.74%、7.48%、
6.89%、8.58%、9.15%、8.11%
The big moon in June
Stock markets in many countries have fallen so much in a year
The third set of data: 11 indices rose three times and fell eight times in the first half of the year
Only the CSI 50 rose 0.8% and the SSE 50 rose 2.92%
CSI 300 up 0.87%
The remaining eight indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.24%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 7.1%
The ChiNext fell 11%, the Science and Technology Innovation Board fell 16.5%,
CSI 50 fell 9%, CSI 1000 fell 16.84%,
The CSI 2000 fell 23.3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange fell 34.6%
This is the data for the first half of the year
The fourth set of data: there are 3,137 stocks below the market value of 5 billion
Only 131 rose, accounting for 4.18%
There are 4,111 with a market value of less than 10 billion
Only 287 rose, accounting for 6.98%
There are 243 stocks with a market value of more than 50 billion
There were 153 up, accounting for 63.7%
There are 116 stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion
82 were up, accounting for 71.6%
In other words, only CSI 50, SSE 50,
CSI 300, 42 bank stocks, power,
Coal, the three major telecom operators and the three barrels of oil are rising
The remaining eight to ninety percent of individual stocks are falling
These four sets of data show that since last year's 7.24 important meetings
By February 4 this year, the village chief was changed
By April 12, the national nine articles were introduced
On April 30, the 1+N policy was implemented
The three exchanges issued new regulations
The Great Leap Forward in expansion has been curbed
Introduced the strictest new rules for non-shareholding reductions in history
Then the economic GDP grew by 5.35
Real estate new deal combination punch
The policy package of the new village chief at the Lujiazui forum
None of these measures have worked
The hard part is that they all failed
None of them were able to save A-shares, and they were getting lower and lower
It is now back in front of the 2930 moat
What's the problem?
I thought it was because I had hit the hard bones of interest groups
They will not dare to reform
Or the reform measures were too hasty and skewed
Or behind closed doors
It is far from the expectations of the market and the reality of the market
As a result, the stock market reform in the past year could not be continued
Last week, I said that the new village chief did his best
Because it is still far from the requirements of the market
But the market is unforgiving
The second topic: the highest demand in the market is to solve the five crux of the problem
In desperation
Under severe pressure from market trends
At the end of this week, the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission finally posted the latest statement of the new village head
That is, it is necessary to open the door to evaluation and reform
Listen extensively and carefully study the opinions and suggestions of all parties
Improve the relevant systems and rules of reform in a timely manner
This is Avenue news
The latest speech by the new village chief.
The so-called open door to reform and open door to evaluation
Strengthen communication with the market and listen widely
Carefully study the opinions and suggestions of all parties
I think it's important to open the door to what market participants say
Okay, so I'm going to talk about what is the problem that the market is most looking to solve?
In short, it is to solve the problem of overuse of short-selling tools
The first point is to borrow and borrow securities to short
May 20 arrived after 3174 o'clock
Then it was the weekly line that fell all the way down for six consecutive years
The first of these is securities borrowing and shorting
It is to borrow stocks to refinance shorting
This is only a conditional institution
in order to have a unique advantage
Everyone wants to go short around 3000 points
Isn't that short selling with last year's 7.24 meeting?
Is it short with a series of bailout policies?
Short with Kokujo
Is it empty with the new village chief and the national team?
and restore the economy and restore investor confidence
There is also the country's financial security and financial stability
and the credibility of the government to short?
The Government of our neighbouring Republic of Korea has long since issued a ban on air skies
Short selling is not allowed, and a decree has been issued
Shorting is not allowed until March 2025
If the offender is guilty, the maximum penalty is life imprisonment
Therefore, I think that below 4000 points, short borrowing and borrowing should be prohibited
Only in this way can we talk about bailing out the market
Otherwise, the policy is self-contradictory
The second is to restrict shorting of stock index futures
At the time of the stock market crash in 2015, it was stipulated
Limit short selling, limit short orders, and improve shelf life
At that time, the effect was still relatively obvious
The third strong hope is quantitative trading
The current level of regulation is not enough
What the market wants is cancellation
Why?
The first reason:
Now our country includes five government departments in the country
It calls for long-term investment and patient capital.
Don't take advantage of short-term gains
Advocate long-term investment, value investment, and rational investment
So what is quantitative trading?
It is to use programmatic trading software
Quickly sell high and buy low in fluctuations
Even for a point or two, he can make the difference
It is to quickly win short-term gains
This is contrary to national policy and stock market policy
300 strokes per second, 20,000 strokes a day
One institutional account, a few computers do that
So how many do you know?
Earlier, there were already five or six thousand families doing this
How do you think the broader market index can go up?
As soon as I went up, I cut leeks
The second reason: 95% of the Chinese market is retail
200 million shareholders and 700 million people
This is the data released by the Securities and Futures Commission
Then 95% of retail investors are operated manually
And in addition, the movement of the older ones is slower
Now with the computer software programmatic trading PK
Do you say that individual handicraft can win?
It is not fair to be a leek
The third reason:
So-called quantitative trading can increase the volume of the market
Enhance liquidity
This was learned from the United States, and the United States did the same
I think this kind of propaganda is misleading, misunderstood, and false
It is true that there is quantitative trading in the United States as well
However, the volume of its quantitative trading is very limited
Why?
Because don't look at the market capitalization of the U.S. stock market, which is 5 times that of A-shares.
But his daily trading volume is only 400 to 50 billion
That adds up to a daily turnover of four or five hundred billion yuan
We still have more than 700 billion A shares
So quantitative trading in the United States
It's just a little bit like that, smaller than A-shares
You say that the United States is engaged in quantitative trading to expand trading volume?
Does it enhance liquidity?
So I think we're quant trading
Far beyond the limits of the United States
The fourth reason is that the quantitative agency after extensive use
I found that if I went up, I would run into the trap of history
For example, some time ago, it broke through the annual line of 3100 points
If you go up again, you will be the People's Liberation Army
So they naturally thought about going down
Let the index go back below 3,000 points
Let the former and the nearest be put on the hill forever
Then make the spread at the bottom
It is constantly consuming the stock of funds
Fees and taxes are consumed
The value center of A-shares is getting lower and lower
The losses of patient capital and long-term investors are getting worse and worse
So this kind of under the banner of the United States
Quantitative trading is untenable
The fourth is about the delisting of one-dollar shares
From the point of view of the starting point
The new village chief strengthened the delisting
Resolutely remove the black sheep and zombie shells of the stock market
It seems that it can purify the market
But the actual situation may not be his original intention
Do you remember the circuit breaker in January 2016?
At that time, it was announced that it would be a circuit breaker if it fell by 7%.
As a result, after the circuit breaker measures were announced on January 4
By January 8, there were two melts in two consecutive days
I had to stop the circuit breaker, and if it went on like this, it would be terrible
Why?
When people see a 2% drop
I'm worried about falling 3%, and when it falls 3%, I'm worried about falling 4%
When it falls by 5%, it melts by 7% all at once
Because I am worried that I will not be able to escape after the circuit breaker
This is caused by the psychology of the market
220 million shareholders, everyone looks down
That's over, and it's going to fuse quickly
Now the same is true for the delisting of one-dollar stocks falling below one-dollar
It was obviously a piece of five, and people began to worry
Tomorrow it could be a four, the day after tomorrow could be a three
You think, I think everybody thinks so
Soon it fell below a piece
Then, after falling below one piece, look at two stocks
I don't know when a two-dollar stock will fall below one or another to be delisted
As a result, the two-dollar stock began to sell
Then the three-dollar stock started to sell
Four-dollar stocks began to sell
It's a kind of collective panic
It's the same as the circuit breaker back then
There are currently 46 stocks below $1
This is the most since 2018
There are 109 stocks below $1.5
So are these 109 just junk stocks? What about loss-making stocks?
No
There are nine companies with a market value of more than 10 billion and a market value of more than 50 billion
For example, BBMG Group, Baotou Steel, Greenland Holdings, and Shanzi Hi-Tech
ST Tesco, Liaoning Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Yongtai Energy, Haihai Airlines Co., Ltd
These stocks fell an average of 17.1% in June
They are not junk stocks
Some of them are also China's top 500 enterprises and the world's top 500 enterprises
Because it has a large plate, there are fewer buying orders and more selling
As a result, it is falling in the direction of one piece, going in the direction of delisting
This is due to the fear of the market and the collective sell-off
Is it a poor performance stock?
No
For example, like Guanghui Guanghui shares, his profit is not bad
For example, the stock of China Sea Airlines reported a profit in the first quarter and continued to be profitable in the second quarter
These are the three major airlines in China
Better than Air China's performance, Air China is still losing money
But it got to $1.09
If you don't get it right, you're going to be delisted
Is this reasonable?
Some people will say that the same is true in the United States
Anything less than $1 will be delisted
Yes, there is such a situation in the United States
Less than one dollar for 30 consecutive days
As well as giving you three months and ninety days to tidy up
Let you save yourself, so that you can shrink your shares
For example, 1.5 shares are reduced by one share, or two shares by one share
In this way, the share capital will shrink and the performance will increase
Then the stock price went up
It's amazing to come to us
If it falls below one dollar in a row within 20 days, it will be delisted
Chairman Mao said before
The policy of not giving the way is not the policy of the Communist Party
It's falling below one dollar, you have to find a way for others, right?
There are all sorts of ways to do this
For example, our Hong Kong stock market
He didn't say that he would be delisted
There are hundreds of stocks under $1 in the Hong Kong stock market
It's even a few cents
There are still a few percent of stocks that are around for the long haul
Then he can shrink one in three shares and one in five shares
There are ten strands and one strand of shrunk
There are also such strands that come back to life
Gain new life through restructuring, attract the market and obtain mergers
For example, NetEase, which is listed in the United States
It once fell below $1
After the introduction of the Chinese bigwig Duan Yongping, he was reborn
It turned out to be $100
Up to $500
So I'm thinking about non-ST stocks
And there are profitable ones
It is even one of the top 500 in China and one of the top 500 in the world
Is it reasonable for a company like this to be delisted if it falls below one dollar?
Wouldn't it be allowed to reduce people's shares?
No one is allowed to reorganize
Don't people be allowed to come back to life by buying back and increasing their holdings?
I feel like this is too urgent
This issue must be addressed as a matter of urgency
Otherwise, it will be like a circuit breaker that turns three pieces into two pieces
Two pieces become one piece, and one becomes delisting
The fifth urgent issue is:
For some ST shares that have been investigated for violations of laws and regulations
You can't just walk away
Trading should also be suspended and then awaited processing
That is, through administrative, criminal
and economic means to carry out penalties
The investor is then compensated
If the listed company runs out of money, it will not lose
That's not going to work
Sell the factory building of the listed company through legal means
Land, assets, assembly lines, inventory, and more
Including his major shareholders are responsible
Then the underwriting brokers,
The auditing accounting firm must be jointly and severally compensated
Compensate the shareholders first
This is the only way to truly protect investors
That's why I think it's important to be broadly advised
The above five problems are the most desired by the market
Rather than behind closed doors
Some empty statements made up
For example, it is necessary to increase long-term capital into the market
This is what several village chiefs have said
But the effect was never seen in action
The third topic: Can you turn over seven after being poor and six desperate?
I think the key is action
Five recommendations for appeals
Or in recent years, I think it can be easy and then difficult
It's not so easy to solve it all at once
Then do something easy first
Which is easy to do? Securities lending is prohibited
Securities lending is prohibited below 4,000 points, and it will be implemented immediately
The market will immediately have a pole effect
For example, the delisting of non-ST companies below one yuan will be suspended
Is this okay? OK
There are also a few companies that violate the rules or commit fraud
One or two typical examples of indemnifying investors come out
It will be able to stabilize the market sentiment immediately
I think it can be easy and then difficult
Of course, the last encounter is quantitative trading
Because the regulations have just been made
Consider 300 transactions per second and 20,000 transactions a day to be compliant
Overturn it now
It seems to be a bit difficult, and it takes a little time
Then it can be easy and then difficult
This is the first condition for the five poor, six and seven to turn over
The second is long-term capital, patient capital, and medium- and long-term investment
You can't repeat these words over and over again
There's so much to say about it that I've never quantified
Then I feel that the market should be the most vocal in the long run
There needs to be an explanation for the issue of equalizing funds
Even if it is in the making
However, it may need to be passed in the third review of the Financial Stability Act
Then it can be implemented
You have to have an explanation
If you are not going to do it, then tell the market as well
There is no such consideration at this time
Or through the national team to increase his financial strength to stabilize the market
Then there is also a saying
The third is from July 15th to 18th
The Third Plenary Session of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held
Take a look at the policies that have been launched to deepen reform in an all-round way
Can it be exciting?
Like the Third Plenum of the 11th Central Committee
Become a turning point in history
It remains to be seen what will become a turning point for our Chinese stock market
Fourth, let's see if the RRR cut will come first?
As the Fed may be motivated by financial warfare considerations
Delayed rate cuts
It is beneficial for them to cut leeks all over the world
Now the yen has depreciated to an all-time high of 1:161
Of course, our renminbi has also depreciated recently
But in general, 7.30 dollars offshore
The one on the shore is 7.26 yuan, and it is still stable there
Then maybe the Fed cut interest rates
We, the People's Bank of China, also cut interest rates
Otherwise, interest rate differentials will cause fluctuations in the exchange rate
Then cut the RRR before cutting the interest rate
Fifth, the three major exchanges have now resumed the acceptance of new shares
Then the issuance of new shares also began
Hope can't be presumptuous
It's best to keep going at a rate of one to two times a week
Then the market sentiment can be stabilized
In this regard, our new village chief still has achievements
From January to June, the number of new companies in the queue has decreased by 280
Now there are only 487 in the queue
At the end of last year, there were 767 in line
The new rules for the size of non-reduction of holdings
In more than a month, it only reduced its holdings by 7 billion, a decrease of 88.3%
The effect is very noticeable
In the first half of the year, 44 new shares were issued, raising 32.9 billion yuan
This is down 75% and 84% respectively from the same period last year
That's very gratifying
The Kunlong Great Leap Forward finally held it down
In addition, we have to pay attention to the national team and northbound funding
See if you can sync.
Recently all the way down, fourteen trading days
Northbound funds and foreign investors are fully optimistic about A-shares.
It is said that the CSI 300 index can rise to 4100 points
But at the same time, they sold a net of 55.4 billion for 14 consecutive days
It wasn't until this Friday that I bought 4.95 billion
Then let's see if the northbound funds can turn around again in July
Now, of course, the national team has clearly built a moat around 2930.
That's my opinion, it seems like so
Just to protect 2900 points from breaking
The starting point of protecting the new village chief is 2829 points
It is necessary to build a moat at 2930 points
It has not been broken for four days so far
Moreover, the four major bank stocks in the session also hit new highs this year
Then the four major ETFs were severely suppressed by northbound funds
In the past two days, it has also begun to bottom out
China Mobile replaced Moutai to become the largest weighted stock in A-shares
That's a good sign, it's tech stocks coming up
There is also Yangtze Power
Some people have compared whether it will become China's Nvidia and so on
So I think our core asset stocks should also be cultivated
Then it must be recognized by the majority of investors
I hope to turn around in July
It depends on whether the new village chief can decisively admonish
Decisive response, strong call to absorb the market
Well, the above comments and analysis
Just one word for your reference
Thank you all for listening and watching