China Fund News reporter Li Shuchao Zhang Ling
After the restriction of "manual interest supplement", the "moving" of deposits has promoted a significant increase in the scale of bank wealth management.
Following the scale of wealth management exceeding 2 trillion yuan in April this year, Puyi Standard Data estimates that as of June 14, the latest wealth management scale has reached 29.84 trillion yuan, which is only one step away from the return of bank wealth management to the 30 trillion yuan mark.
The attractiveness of wealth management products has increased, and the latest scale is approaching the 30 trillion yuan mark
Puyi standard data estimates, as of June 14, the latest wealth management scale has reached 29.84 trillion yuan, compared with the data at the end of last year, the scale of bank wealth management has surged by 3.04 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 11.34%, and the bank wealth management market has achieved "elephant dance".
Talking about the rapid growth of the scale of bank wealth management, Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank of China, said that since the beginning of this year, the yield of wealth management products has been relatively considerable, which is more attractive to residents' investment and wealth management. At the same time, banks lowered deposit interest rates and suspended the sale of large-amount certificates of deposit, which led to a decline in deposit yields. In addition, wealth management companies launch new products in a timely manner according to market demand, and these factors jointly promote the rapid growth of wealth management scale.
Wang Tieniu, director of the Jinxin Fund Evaluation Center of Jin'an, also analyzed that first of all, the deposit interest rate of commercial banks continued to decline, and at the same time, the "manual interest supplement" was also stopped by the regulator, and the investment focus of many bank customers shifted from deposit products to bank wealth management products. Secondly, the yield of medium and long-term bonds continued to decline, and bank wealth management products have also achieved a good level of income this year. Third, some bank wealth management companies have also launched "wealth management night market" services and differentiated rate products, which have increased the attractiveness of bank wealth management products.
Wisdom Xinhong Financial Research Institute also mentioned that first, the bond market was still in a bull market in the first half of this year, and the yield of bank wealth management was considerable; Second, after the restriction of "manual interest supplement", many low-risk investors, including institutional investors, transferred their asset allocation to assets such as bank wealth management and bond funds, and the scale of bank wealth management increased rapidly in the first half of the year.
Judging from the current growth momentum, bank wealth management is expected to return to the era of 30 trillion yuan. However, industry insiders said that compared with the 30 trillion yuan before the new regulations on asset management in 2018, the current scale of wealth management is more market-oriented and standardized, and the wealth management market has also entered a new stage of high-quality development.
Lou Feipeng said that although the scale of bank wealth management is 30 trillion yuan, most of the current bank wealth management products are net worth wealth management products developed by bank wealth management companies as professional institutions, which is obviously different from before 2018. In the future, bank wealth management will still be an important asset management product in the mainland, and the market space will likely be further expanded.
Wisdom Xinhong Financial Research Institute also analyzed that the current "gold content" of 30 trillion yuan of bank wealth management is higher than the 30 trillion yuan at that time. Before the new regulations on asset management, bank wealth management was strictly a means of "high-interest deposits" to a large extent; After the new regulations on asset management, bank wealth management companies have truly become asset management companies with an increasing degree of marketization.
"Although there are still many deficiencies in bank wealth management in terms of operational standardization and information disclosure, on the whole, bank wealth management is moving forward in fluctuations and growing in the wind and rain, and will be an important participant in the subdivision of the low-risk and low-volatility asset management market in the future." The relevant person in charge of the Wisdom Xinhong Financial Research Institute said.
Wang Tieniu also analyzed that the current bank wealth management market is established in the context of breaking the rigid payment, product net worth, and increasing investor requirements, which reduces the systematic risk level of the entire market and industry as a whole, and better reflects the principle of "being entrusted by others and managing money on behalf of others".
"In the future, the bank wealth management market will have a broader space for development under the background of standardization and marketization." Wang Tieniu said.
The scale of fixed income and cash management wealth management has increased significantly
In terms of structure, in the nearly 30 trillion yuan wealth management market, the scale of fixed income and cash management wealth management increased significantly in the first half of the year, while the scale of mixed and equity assets shrank.
According to Puyi Standard data, as of May 19, 2024, among the 2.89 trillion wealth management scale that has increased since the end of March, fixed income wealth management has increased by 2 trillion yuan, cash management wealth management has increased by 0.9 trillion yuan, and the scale of hybrid and equity wealth management has decreased.
"This shows that the risk appetite of investors across the market continues to decline. In the short term, this trend is still likely to continue; In the medium to long term, Treasury yields will move through volatility. The relevant person in charge of the Wisdom Xinhong Financial Research Institute said.
Lou Feipeng also believes that the overall performance of the bond market this year is better, supporting the development of fixed-income wealth management and bond funds, and the market performance of the stock market has reduced the attractiveness of investors, which is not conducive to the growth of equity wealth management products and partial stock funds.
Wang Tieniu also analyzed that the main reason is that the equity market has continued to fluctuate, and investors are reducing their risk appetite and allocation ratio for hybrid products and equity products. Although cash and fixed income products also have a downward trend in terms of earnings levels and performance benchmarks, they are still more attractive in the current market environment than equity markets.
In his view, with the continuous fluctuation of investment varieties such as equity market and real estate, the investment trend with fixed income as the main body will continue, but due to the decline in market interest rates, the yield of long-term treasury bonds has been in a low range, and the income expectations of fixed income bank wealth management and public bond base in the future need to be appropriately lowered, and the volatility of related products may also increase.
The research and innovation department of Huabao Securities added that in the era of low interest rates, residents need to pay attention to asset allocation, and usually allocate 25%-35% of their personal funds to investments with stable attributes of capital protection. In addition, bank wealth management products with stable investment styles and stable returns are also regaining the trust of residents and ushering in scale growth.
The agency believes that from the past experience of overseas developed countries, in a long-term environment close to "zero interest rates", investors have a tendency to increase returns by improving risk appetite. Residents tend to reduce the allocation of cash and fixed income assets and increase investment in stocks, mutual funds, insurance and other products.
Specifically, from the perspective of the growth of the scale of various wealth management companies, as of May 19, the scale of ABC Wealth Management, ICBC Wealth Management, CCB Wealth Management and Bank of China Wealth Management increased by more than 200 billion yuan, of which the scale of ABC wealth management increased by 466.619 billion yuan, ranking first, and a total of 11 wealth management companies increased by more than 100 billion yuan.
According to the analysis of the research and innovation department of Huabao Securities, the growth of the scale of wealth management companies may be related to the proportion of the parent bank's channel consignment, and it can be seen that the first four are all state-owned bank wealth management companies, and the number of products of the wealth management subsidiaries of the Bank of China, ICBC and CCB accounts for about 96%, 90% and 80%, and most of the deposit moves are undertaken by the products of the wealth management subsidiaries of the Bank.
Editor: Captain
Review: Muyu