We see that the recent liquor market has shown a continuous downward trend, and after the previous rebound market came to an abrupt end, the liquor market is still in a corresponding downward channel. As mentioned before, the decline of liquor needs to see that Moutai really shows signs of stabilization, and the stabilization of Moutai needs to be supported by multiple factors, one is that the current wholesale price of Moutai needs to stop falling and rebound back to above 2,600 yuan, and the other is that Moutai's market consumption is expected to pick up.
However, just recently, Wang Li, general manager of Moutai Group, made a very important point clear in her foreign speech: the basic attributes of Moutai have not changed, and the basic demand side has not changed. At present, the liquor industry is going through a new round of adjustment cycle, and Moutai has full confidence to survive this cycle.
So what is the liquor cycle that Wang Li, general manager of Moutai Group, refers to?
In fact, it is the current liquor market adjustment cycle brought about by the weakening of the consumption expectation of liquor and the weakening of the consumption momentum of mid-to-high-end liquor. We see that the current high-end liquor in the consumption expectations of domestic demand has weakened signs, the market's consumption expectations show a certain pessimism and downturn, in the short term to affect the market sales of high-end liquor, the price has also declined correspondingly, especially the wholesale price of Moutai from 2700 yuan all the way down to around 2080 yuan, and finally rebounded, which is the most intuitive embodiment.
The liquor industry is currently facing an overall destocking cycle. The inventory situation of liquor is also a problem that plagues the current mid-to-high-end liquor, but as a consumer product with special attributes, the inventory of liquor will not have much loss to a certain extent. At present, the annual output of Moutai has reached more than 100 million bottles, but the market estimate of the corkage rate is only 30%~40%.
Where did Moutai get the confidence to go through this round of adjustment cycle?
Moutai's stable net profit growth rate and performance growth rate remain unchanged. In the first quarter of this year, we can clearly see that the net profit growth and performance growth rate of mid-to-high-end liquor are still unchanged, we take the growth of net profit as an example: in the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao increased by 15.7%, 11.98% and 23.2% respectively, which is also a core reason for our subsequent judgment that the price of Moutai does not have continued to plummet.
Moutai's market financial attributes are gradually returning to rationality, but it is unlikely to disappear directly in the short term. The decline in Moutai's wholesale price this time is actually a return to market rationality of Moutai's financial attributes, but at present, Moutai's financial attributes in the short term are still available, and the fundamentals have not changed.
What is the impact of the speech of the general manager of Moutai?
Counter-cyclical focus on the current liquor industry. At present, the entire liquor industry is basically in a corresponding adjustment cycle. Although there is no clear signal of bottoming out, we need to pay attention to the current liquor industry, which has a strong moat and its consumption value attributes.
Pay attention to the current Moutai price stop falling and the overall recovery, because it means that the liquor industry as a whole is picking up. The current wholesale price of Moutai has recovered, but the recovery is not large, and we must continue to pay attention to the recovery of Moutai prices and Moutai stock prices in the future. Because it means the end of the adjustment of the liquor industry.