The central bank suddenly struck! A-shares exploded at noon, treasury bond futures plummeted, and the good days of the bond market came to an end?

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2024-07-01 16:47Look at the official account of Finance

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01 The People's Bank of China suddenly took action to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations, which led to a sharp rebound in 10-year and 30-year treasury bond yields and a sharp fall in treasury bond futures.

02 Due to the pessimism of the market on the medium and long-term economy, under the background of asset shortage in the past two years, treasury bonds have been robbed, and the stock market has shown a high-dividend bull market.

03 The central bank's borrowing of treasury bonds is equivalent to an increase in the supply of treasury bonds, and the price of treasury bonds will fall and yields will rise when the demand remains unchanged.

04 At the same time, high-dividend sectors such as A-share coal, petroleum and petrochemical rose and fell, and core assets such as liquor, new energy, and electronics bottomed out.

05 The recent rise in A-shares in the computing power, semiconductors, ships, non-ferrous metals and other sectors are all reported with strong certainty.

Technical support is provided by Tencent Hybrid Model

The hottest fermentation over the weekend was "Biden was called for by Republican lawmakers to be removed for poor performance in the first debate", and there were rumors in the United States that Biden might withdraw from the election, and the market thought that Trump could almost open champagne at half time. If Trump is elected, he may continue to push up tariffs on us, and Biden is inclined to develop traditional energy sources, and new energy sources may be suppressed. Therefore, today's A-share opening institutions on the lithium battery, power grid equipment and other exports to the United States of the industrial chain, and accelerate the group of high dividends, CATL once plummeted more than 4% with the collapse of the ChiNext index, Mao index, Ning index and other core assets plummeted, corresponding to coal, petroleum and petrochemical and other high-dividend sectors rose sharply, high dividends and core assets of ice and fire.

However, a midday vision struck. The Open Market Business Operation Office of the People's Bank of China issued the Open Market Business Announcement [2024] No. 2, in order to maintain the stable operation of the bond market, on the basis of prudent observation and assessment of the current market situation, the People's Bank of China decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers of open market business in the near future.

After the central bank's announcement, the yields of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds rebounded sharply, and treasury bond futures plunged. Correspondingly, high-dividend sectors such as A-share coal, petroleum and petrochemical rose and fell, core assets such as liquor, new energy, and electronics bottomed out, and the GEM index burst red from a drop of nearly 2%.

Many friends may not understand the impact of the central bank's borrowing of treasury bonds on the market, so let's briefly talk about the causes and consequences. Due to the downturn in the real estate market and the pessimism of the market about the medium- and long-term economy, the background of the asset shortage in the past two years has been created, and the government bonds have been robbed like crazy, and the spread to the stock market is a high-dividend bull market.

How hot is the bond market? China's 30-year government bond yield has fallen below 2.5%, you must know that Japan's 30-year government bond yield is 2.2%, China is actually not far from Japan, which means that the market has already priced according to Japan, how pessimistic this must be.

The central bank has warned the market several times about the risk of long-term bonds, the most recent of which was the Lujiazui forum, where the central bank directly used the case of Silicon Valley Bank to warn of risks, but the bond market has been "crazy" regardless of it.

Let's talk about the borrowing of treasury bonds mentioned by the central bank, borrowing treasury bonds is to sell treasury bonds for the subsequent secondary market, which is equivalent to an increase in the supply of treasury bonds, and when the demand remains unchanged, the price of treasury bonds will fall, and the yield on maturity of treasury bonds will rise.

As mentioned above, the high-dividend huddle of A-shares and the huddle of the bond market are all the way, and if the bond market huddle is loosened, the high-dividend huddle of A-shares will naturally be affected. In addition, in 2020, the tragic situation of core assets of institutions is still vivid, and most of the core assets such as liquor, consumption, and new energy are cut in half. There is nothing new in A-shares, everything is a cycle, and the high dividends that are now in the group will be the same in the future, when they rise, they are high dividends, and when they fall, they know that the dividends of a few years are not enough to fall in one day.

Let's take a look at today's other big news:

In June, the cumulative transaction area of new houses in 43 cities was -20.8% year-on-year, and +30.5% month-on-month in the same period in May; The year-on-year growth rate was -33.5%. In June, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in 14 cities was +9.1% year-on-year, and +7.0% month-on-month in the same period in May; The year-on-year increase was -9.9% year-on-year. Especially on June 30, the single-day transaction reached 8,433 units, which not only hit a new high this year, but also the largest single-day transaction since April last year.

Before the central bank introduced the three major measures for real estate rescue, the real estate sector rose in a big wave, but then because the real estate market did not improve in the short term, the real estate sector almost fell back to the original point, and also fell sharply with market expectations. But in fact, the recent 30 high-frequency data of the real estate market has picked up, and the second-hand housing market in Shanghai and Shenzhen is even stronger, but the market has not reacted due to the downturn in the stock market.

Until the end of the month, the property market data was announced, and there was no feedback today, with the real estate sector leading the rise, with Zhongzhou Holdings, Binjiang Group, and Huafa shares rising to the limit. Among them, Binjiang Group's sales in June were 14.93 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month, nearly doubled.

In addition to Trump's reasons, there are also rumors of negative news in the lithium battery sector. According to the report of the Financial Associated Press, the stock prices of listed companies in the battery sector generally fell today, and the market small essay said that "the industry's July production scheduling data generally declined", in this regard, CATL responded to the media that the company's operation is good, the global market share has increased steadily, the overall production schedule is good, and the recent and third quarter production scheduling has shown a growth trend compared with the previous quarter.

Affected by the expectation of Trump coming to power in the U.S. election, transformers and other overseas sectors also fell sharply, Igor fell to the limit, and many stocks such as Sieyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology fell sharply.

Finally, a brief look at the disk, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92%, about to regain 3,000 points, the ChiNext index fell slightly by 0.04%, and Hong Kong stocks did not open on holiday today. The turnover of the two cities shrank to 0.65 trillion yuan, and more than 3,500 companies rose, which should be flat if foreign capital is included.

In terms of industries, real estate, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, building materials and other industries led the gains, while food and beverage, household appliances, power equipment, electronics, computers and other industries led the decline.

From now to July 15, it is the performance forecast window period, and August is the interim reporting window period, so the performance weight has been increased. The recent A-share rise in computing power, semiconductors, ships, non-ferrous metals and other sectors are all reported with strong certainty.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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