In the afternoon, the market suddenly exerted force, especially in the morning fell sharply, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market rose rapidly, the Shenzhen Component Index quickly turned red, followed by the double creation, the Shanghai Index rose to further expand, the number of rising stocks increased rapidly, the morning market or the Shanghai market sang a one-man show, the disk looked listless, how to suddenly force in the afternoon, what changes have occurred in the market, I think there are the following reasons:
First, the national team opened in the afternoon to protect the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF, as well as the central enterprise technology ETF, etc., all of which rose rapidly, and it was obvious that the national team began to exert force.
Second, institutional funds no longer flowed out, and began to show a slight return.
Third, the central bank is scheduled to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations in the near future, which is conducive to easing the liquidity of A-shares.
On the whole, the disk protection funds began to act, and at the same time, the market's concerns about liquidity cooled. Although the index and individual stocks collectively rose in the afternoon, several major phenomena on the market are still worrying:
First of all, the volume energy has not been amplified when it rises in the afternoon, and the volume energy is still shrinking compared to the previous trading day. It is clear that retail investors are still skeptical of the market's rise, and they are unwilling to enter the market. It is difficult for the market to move forward.
Secondly, the afternoon rise is mainly an exponential market, in addition to the decline in wine, most of the weights are rising, the weight is rising, but the amount can shrink, and the stocks are rising more and falling less, and the weight diverts most of the funds, resulting in a small overall increase in individual stocks, and the local money-making effect is not good.
Finally, the top sectors on the list of gainers are mainly traditional industries, such as real estate, chemicals, coal, nonferrous metals, electricity, and other large consumption. Funds continue to concentrate on high-dividend yield sectors, while hyping around some sectors with good news, while Big Tech, which has been supported by positive news recently, has not received a response from funds.
Judging from the performance of the disk, there is no incremental capital entry, mainly because the original funds continue to speculate around some traditional industries. It is unreliable to shrink and rise. The market can only continue a structural opportunity.
Today is the first trading day of July, and the market ushered in a good start, with nearly 3,600 stocks rising and more than 1,600 stocks falling, although only about 210 stocks rose by more than 5%. However, for two consecutive days, individual stocks rose more and fell less, and many stocks continued to rise and began a repairing rebound. Confidence in the market is slowly recovering, but many people are still indifferent to the current market, and I think there are several main reasons:
There is no single-day long white candlestick in the market, and there is no explosive rise in individual stocks, my understanding is:
First, since this round of pullback, it has been a yin fall, boiling frogs in warm water, and there has been no suffocating fall like before the rebound at 2635 points. Only after breaking 3,000 points last Monday did individual stocks plummet, and by last Wednesday, nearly 800 stocks collectively rose, which can be regarded as a repair for Monday's sharp decline. The rest of the time, individual stocks did not fall sharply, so it is difficult to have a retaliatory rally at the bottom.
Second, there are many forms of bottoming, and there will be no retaliatory big yang line at the moment, only repeated bottoming, bottoming conditions, I repeatedly emphasized, one is not a new low for three consecutive days, and the second is that most stocks continue to repair, from last Friday to today, individual stocks continue to repair, but the Shenzhen Component Index and Shuangchuang also hit a new low today, which is not perfect, and it still needs time to verify.
Third, five poor and six absolute facts have become a fact, and in the context of the implementation of more than 70 systems, such a trend is really embarrassing. For the time being, whether the stock proverb of seven turns over can be fulfilled, there is a high probability that it will rebound if it falls too much, and once the disk protection funds are opened, the policy continues to increase, how can it not be released.
To be honest, with the above judgment, there is no need to worry too much about the current situation that the volume can continue to shrink. Even if there is no big sun now, as long as individual stocks rebound for four or five days in a row, most retail investors will inevitably be moved, and once the market's sentiment is mobilized, the rebound will naturally come naturally.
Although we believe that there will be a market in July, we dare not say that there is a big market to turn over, but at least there will be a repaired market, why not dare to expect a big market, there are several main reasons:
First, the fundamental situation is still not optimistic, the social finance data in May was lower than expected, and the PMI data of the Bureau of Statistics in June remained below the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, as for the Caixin PMI data as high as 51.8, the highest in June 2021, its reference significance is not large. Without the support of fundamentals, it is difficult for large funds to restore confidence.
Second, the yen collapsed, and the RMB exchange rate continued to be under pressure, maintaining a record high of 7.30, which will inhibit the confidence of foreign investors to go long A shares, and second, the assets denominated in RMB will naturally depreciate, and the stock price will naturally be difficult to rise.
Third, the full recovery of IPOs, including many policies to support big technology, is premised on financing.
Fourth, short-selling tools such as quantification and refinancing have not responded, and it is difficult for investor confidence to recover.
Fifth, dividend assets continued to rise sharply, and among the stocks with a total market value of more than 200 billion yuan, the stocks that hit a record high in the morning were: China Mobile, CNOOC, Agricultural Bank of China, Yangtze River Power, and Shaanxi Coal. Huaneng Hydropower also hit a record high in the morning, with a total market value of 199.1 billion yuan. In the morning, the stocks that hit a new high in the year or a new high in many years are: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Shenhua, Bank of Communications, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, China General Nuclear Power Corporation, and China Nuclear Power. Once these individual stocks collectively or partially smashed. It will put a lot of pressure on the index.
Of course, there are many other reasons why the market does not have the basis for a significant rebound. But in the short term, there are also some positive factors that are conducive to a short-term market rebound for several reasons:
First, after a series of declines, the market has the momentum to rebound.
Second, the news is constantly being released, especially the voice of capital market reform is getting stronger and stronger.
Third, stock ETFs "absorbed" nearly 84 billion yuan in June, the largest monthly net inflow since March this year. Recently, the national team has been buying in the intraday.
In the medium and long-term market, you need to take one step at a time, and the plan is not as good as the change, and no one can predict it. But there are traces of short-term market changes. In the short term, although there is still a big gap from the standard of market strengthening, short-term players can only fall sharply in the face of big falls, reduce expectations, and short-term is trapped, so there is no need to worry. Because I've been emphasizing lately that history shows that the market doesn't stay long below 3,000 points, and below 3,000 points is an opportunity. If you are also worried about below 3000 points, then most investors are stuck above 3000 points, what reason is there to insist.