Friends, the weekend news was blown into the sky by some people, as if the opening of Monday flew up directly, you don't get on the car there is no chance, the result of the morning after a short rush and then quickly fall, although the index did not fall much, but the rise of individual stocks fell from more than 3,800 to more than 1,500, and then the index began to fluctuate back and forth, but the rise of individual stocks did not return to the performance at the opening. Individual stocks have fallen in a large area, as always, they are losing money, I think the trend of the disk has been very clearly reflected, there are two main points:
First, in early trading, only the Shanghai Composite Index was relatively resistant, and the Shanghai Composite Index supported the broader market with weight, and small and medium-sized themes fell in a large area.
Second, the Shenzhen Component Index and Shuangchuang continued to fall sharply, and the disk naturally had no money-making effect. And basically, small and medium-sized themes led the decline.
This trend is really disappointing, in fact, from the performance of the morning, it may be seen that today's trend is not ideal, because as you know, the central bank and other seven departments jointly issued a work plan for science and technology finance over the weekend, and this morning the big technology sector was basically wiped out, and the top of the list of gainers is the traditional industry, such as real estate services, coal, big consumption, and the concept of rare earth stimulated by the good, of course, the real estate-related sectors rose sharply, mainly affected by the weekend, the central bank said, It is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Policy support for real estate development will not change, why is the same stimulated by the big technology not rising, but real estate, rare earth and other good industries rising. I think it's nothing more than a few points:
First, the impact of real estate on the economy is very huge, and the individual stocks of real estate have fallen hugely, and more are over-falling and rebounding.
Second, Big Tech was the top overall gainer on Friday, and the reason why it fell today is more because of the rhythm of rotation.
Third, the market is now a stock game, even if there are more good industries, but funds can only choose some industries. It is impossible to strike in full.
On the whole, although big technology fell across the board today, this is only a short-term behavior of funds, there is no need to over-interpret, if from the perspective of rotation, if nothing else, tomorrow big technology will usher in the opportunity to perform.
Many people still don't understand, why the weekend news released so much good, today the market continues to fall, in fact, for the weekend good, we have also analyzed one by one, the conclusion is: draw another pie, the current market pie is too much, the first half of the year has introduced more than 70 more than 70 institutional policies, etc., the first half of the market as a whole is still plummeting, indicating that so many policies have not really touched the core of the contradiction, and the strongest reaction of investors at the moment is the core tools such as quantification, refinancing, but in factIn addition, many experts strongly call for the banning of such short-selling tools, and there is a precedent in South Korea, so in the consciousness of many investors, if short-selling tools such as quantification and refinancing are not banned, then the market has no future, so everyone does not participate, and the market's long-selling sentiment cannot be recovered.
In early trading last Friday, Guo Jia's team took the lead, driving several major ETFs to rise sharply, and institutional funds began to actively return to the market. As a result, today, Guo Jia's team has begun to fall sharply again, and institutional funds have begun to flow out sharply, and the trading volume of the two cities has been slightly enlarged.
First, the policy must have a blockbuster cooperation.
Second, Guo Jia's team must continue to buy funds, and the outflow of institutional funds must be greatly reduced or slightly returned.
Third, the money-making effect of individual stocks began to continue to rise.
But at present, that condition has not been met, the disk protection funds are three days of fishing, two days of drying nets, and it is not at all what everyone imagines that they will not stop if they do not pull the market up. Institutional funds occasionally flow in one day and then smash sharply the next day. Judging from the news, in fact, in addition to drawing a big pie on the weekend, I think the real benefits are as follows:
First, the Bureau of Statistics announced the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, the same as the previous month, has been continuously below the line of prosperity and withering, although it did not continue to run downward, but the continuous recession, has basically reflected the second quarter of the economic growth rate is less than expected, the economic growth rate is less than expected, naturally indicating that the profitability of enterprises is not optimistic. That's the biggest concern for the market.
Second, the current RMB exchange rate is in the channel of depreciation, always maintaining a high level of 7.30. Foreign capital will definitely not return to A-shares, but will continue to flow out, institutional funds are shorting, and the funds are unwilling to contribute, what will the market take to rise, and the funds in the market can only move back and forth.
Third, the first batch of IPO companies to be randomly inspected in 2024 have all been taken offline, which is equivalent to the total annihilation: Although there are not many IPO companies in the first batch of random inspections this year, only two, these two have all voluntarily withdrawn their listing applications, which is equivalent to all going offline. One is Hengda Intelligent Control, sponsored by CITIC Construction Investment, and the other is Urban Construction Design, sponsored by CITIC Securities; Both of them took the initiative to cancel the order, and they did not give the opportunity for on-site inspection, I don't know if they are empty-hearted.
Fourth, 900 private placements were cancelled in the first half of the year, and the more private placements were cancelled, the less incremental funds will be in the future. The reason why these private placements were cancelled was naturally because of the serious losses and the fact that a large amount of money was taken away.
In fact, no matter how good or bad the news is, in the short term, it is the funds that affect the rise and fall of the market, and it is the real trend of institutional funds.
Next, let's talk about the issues that investors focus on:
1. After the market hit a low of 2933.33 last Thursday, today is the fourth day without a new low, has the market bottomed out?
We have been emphasizing that whether the short-term market can bottom out or not, as long as there are a few criteria:
First, the premise of the market bottoming out is that the Shenzhen Component Index and the index representing the money-making effect of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship should bottom out. Today, the Twin Ventures and Shenzhen Component Index continue to hit new lows.
Second, for three consecutive days, only the Shanghai Composite Index is satisfied, and the other three major indexes are not satisfied.
Third, either there is a low-level large-scale yang, or the low-level volume can be slowly amplified, but we must see that the market's money-making effect has improved, and a large number of individual stocks have rebounded.
Considering these conditions, it is still not possible to meet them at present, and it is not meaningful to just look at the Shanghai Index. There is no market that can be picked up, and there is no big rebound market.
2. Will the market pull up in the afternoon?
Judging from the trend in the morning, the volume can shrink, and it is difficult to pull up, but this speculation is meaningless, and a few data will eventually have to be observed:
First, will Guo Jia's team make efforts in the afternoon like last Wednesday to keep an eye on the movements of several major ETFs.
Second, will the outflow of institutional funds decrease?
Third, whether the yellow line, which represents small and medium-sized themes, will go higher.
From my understanding, now the news is not cooperative, the market is tossing back and forth here, and the short-term operation can only be to buy if it falls too much, run if it makes money, and firmly hold shares in the medium and long term.