Last week, spot gold maintained a volatile consolidation, reaching a high of $2,339.79 and a low of $2,293.69, and finally closing at $2,326.72, with a cumulative increase of more than 12.78% in the first half of 2024. In today's European session, gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently hovering around $2,326.
Non-farm payrolls data is coming!
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower. At the close, the Dow fell 0.12% to 39,118.86. The S&P 500 fell 0.41% to 5,460.48. The Nasdaq fell 0.71% to 17,732.6.
With the end of the last trading day of last week, the first half of 2024 ended smoothly in US stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, rising 18.1%, the S&P 500 up 14.5%, and the Dow Jones rising 3.8%.
This week, a series of blockbuster events and blockbuster data will appear one after another, which is expected to trigger a big market in the financial markets.
The first is the Fed minutes.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of its meeting, which will reveal more details on what Fed officials are thinking. If the wording in the minutes changes, it may lead to a correction in market expectations.
It is worth mentioning that the "new Fed news agency" Nick Timiraos has not published news for two weeks, and the last article is still stuck on June 13, and even after the release of inflation data on Friday, it has not been interpreted.
It seems that the Fed does not want to reveal more information to the market, in other words, the Fed does not have "certain" news to the market. This is expected to change this week, and if the "new Fed news agency" publishes this week, it must be at the behest of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
In addition to the minutes, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President Williams will speak on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
For Fed rate hikes, traders are now pricing in a 59.5% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Secondly, PMI data.
On Monday, the manufacturing PMI will be released, and on Wednesday, the services PMI will be released. The former will rise from 48.7 to 49.0, while the latter will fall from 53.8 to 52.0.
As long as the decline does not exceed expectations, a weaker services PMI is good news for Wall Street. But more importantly, the market will want to see a slowdown in industrial goods factory price inflation. After a steady rise over the past month, the USD is vulnerable to a sell-off if there is general weakness in the upcoming data.
Finally, the non-farm payrolls data.
On Friday, the US non-farm payrolls data for June will be released.
Recent employment data has outstripped inflation, and this NFP is a point in time to reshape the global market landscape.
Economists expect non-farm payrolls to fall sharply to 180,000 in June, well below the 272,000 in May when the unemployment rate stabilizes at 4%. Even if it meets expectations, the market will still end up volatile.
Analysts noted that against the backdrop of a further deceleration in inflation, more evidence of a weaker job market would pave the way for the first rate cut in September, which would boost U.S. stocks. On the contrary, a hot jobs report will boost the dollar and weigh on U.S. stocks.
For the future of U.S. stocks, a survey of 586 investors conducted from June 17 to June 21 showed that about half of the respondents said that U.S. stocks will see at least a 10% correction in the second half of this year. Unexpected risks in the AI sector and potential headwinds in the U.S. economic outlook are two of the biggest concerns for investors.
However, given the rally of U.S. stocks in the first half of the year and the AI boom showing no signs of cooling down, many institutions on Wall Street have recently raised the target point of the S&P 500 index for U.S. stocks this year. The median forecast of Wall Street agencies for the S&P 500 index target is 5,500, with an average of 5,402.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
Black Swan Raid!
At 2 o'clock on July 1, Beijing time, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election ended. Preliminary vote counts showed that in the first round of voting, the far-right party National Alliance received 33% of the vote; The left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" received 28.5% of the vote; The ruling Ba'ath Party and the centrist coalition "together" received 22 percent of the vote.
It is reported that the voter turnout in the first round was 69.7%, a record high since the 1986 parliamentary elections.
Macron's early parliamentary elections were originally a political gamble, betting on the French people's sense of crisis, betting that they would part ways with the far right, who knew that everything was just the opposite, just to help the far right come to power early.
France has two rounds of elections, and according to the results of the voting so far, I see that there are predictions that out of the 577 seats in the French parliament, the far-right will be expected to win 240 to 270 seats, the pan-syriza will be expected to win 180 to 200 seats, and the Macron camp will only have 60 to 90 seats.
The French political earthquake caused the French blue-chip index to fall to a new low since January this year on the 28th, and also made the index fall by 6% in June, the largest monthly decline in May 2023. The price of French bonds fell to a seven-month low.
It is worth noting that the risk of "Brexit" is also soaring. Indicators based on credit default swaps show that the likelihood of Brexit has almost doubled since the European Parliament elections and is close to the highest level since 2017.
In addition, the latest rumors about Biden keep coming.
It is reported that a number of Republican lawmakers in the United States have called for the removal of Biden. U.S. Republican Senator Tom Tillis said that U.S. President Joe Biden's incoherent speech in the presidential election debate and his inability to articulate his policies clearly make him unfit to continue as a U.S. leader, and that Biden's cabinet should consider removing Biden. Rep. Chip Roy, Republican of Texas, claimed that he would submit a resolution to Vice President Harris and the cabinet asking for a declaration that Biden is unable to fulfill his presidential duties.
After the "disastrous performance" of the first round of debates in the US election, the betting market judged that Biden's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election fell to a new low, while the probability of Trump rose to a new high. According to RealClearPolitics projections, the 81-year-old Democratic president now has a 19% chance of being re-elected in November.
If the Democrats remove Biden, it will be "catastrophic" for financial markets, as uncertainty intensifies, and financial markets fear uncertainty the most.
Jintou.com: 7.1 gold trend analysis
Image source: Jintou.com
From a technical point of view, the market is sideways, and the overall short-term moving average system around the 4-hour level is sideways, with relatively small fluctuations and small amplitude, and the trend needs the guidance of non-agricultural data.