Due to the crushing defeat of France's ruling Baath Party in the previous European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and held a new National Assembly election on June 30. For France and Europe as a whole, the early legislative elections are one of the most important in decades, as the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is likely to gain a parliamentary majority and take the government and turn France to the right. How will this election work, who are the candidates, why is it important, and what is the likely outcome? iWeekly is with you at a glance.
How are parliamentary elections conducted in France?
Parliamentary elections in France are usually held every five years, usually about a month after the presidential election, and the next election was originally scheduled for 2027. However, since Macron called for an early election, the election is scheduled to be held in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. The National Assembly has 577 members elected by a two-round simple majority system. To win in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes cast and have the support of at least 25% of registered voters (so turnout is crucial). If no candidate meets this requirement, the two candidates with the highest number of votes, as well as any other candidate who receives 12.5% of the total registered voters, will proceed to a second round of voting seven days later. In the second round of voting, the candidate who receives the largest number of votes will be elected.
The French National Assembly is the main legislative body of France. It can overturn the resolution of the independently elected French Senate. The last National Assembly elections were held in June 2022. Macron lost an absolute majority of seats in that election, but he was able to hold the government through alliances and executive power.
Why did Macron call early elections?
Unlike politicians in other European countries, it is not common for French leaders to announce early elections. Macron's decision came as a surprise to even his closest allies, as politicians rarely lag behind their own party in the polls and do not have to hold early elections if necessary. CNN reported that some analysts have analyzed Macron's underlying motives: although Macron was re-elected as president in 2022, his party failed to win an absolute majority of parliamentary seats. Since taking office, Macron has increasingly had to bypass parliament and implement it with the help of presidential decrees in order to pass controversial bills like "pension reform", which has provoked the anger of opposition parties and much of the public. For the repeated use of presidential decrees, parliament can give a vote of confidence to Macron's government, which may not be able to "survive" again. In this way, instead of being forced to leave the job, it is better to take the initiative to jump out.
There is also a perception that Macron is "gambling" and believes that he can defeat extremist parties by holding them accountable for the government. Considering that far-right leader Marine Le Pen seems increasingly likely to succeed him as president in 2027, this election could force her party to take responsibility ahead of time. In general, when not in power, far-left and far-right parties are accustomed to making all sorts of attacks and unrealistic promises about current policies. However, once in power, they will face various constraints, may find themselves unable to deliver on their promises, and may even prove to be "incompetent". Relinquishing some power now could allow Macron's party to remain more competitive in 2027, even though Macron himself will no longer contest at that time. Macron said that "the rise of nationalists and demagogues poses a danger to our country and Europe", explaining that he has "confidence in the ability of the French people to make the best choice for themselves and future generations". "If his bet is successful, he will be considered a strategist par excellence, and if not, he will be considered a figure who shakes the traditional partisan system in France." This was stated by Kevin Arceneaux, a political scientist in Paris, in an interview with CNN.
Will voters be able to stop the far right?
Historically, voters of all political persuasions in France have rallied to prevent far-right victories. This coalition even has a special name: Front républicain. Recently, some voters have also said that they will vote for Macron, not out of support for him, but to prevent Le Pen from becoming president.
But this time, the tradition may not be able to continue. Many voters no longer see the National Alliance Party as too extreme or an affront to the values of "liberty, equality, fraternity" in the French Republic. Some voters said they felt left-wing populist groups posed a greater threat. Nonna Mayer, a political analyst who has long tracked the country's far right, said the percentage of French people who currently see the National Alliance party as a threat to democracy is already lower than the proportion that does not. "Forty-five percent don't see it as a danger, while 41 percent think it is." This shows that there is a belief that the National Alliance Party can one day become the majority of the government. Mr. Meyer said Le Pen was increasingly seen as a representative of the traditional patriotic right, rather than the far-right.
What are the key players in the French legislative elections?
埃马纽尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）
President of France and leader of the centrist Renaissance. He called for this snap election after his poor performance in the European Parliament elections. Jordan Bardella
Leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) in France. At just 28 years old, Bardra was chosen by Le Pen in 2022 to be the party's leader to drive its nationalist agenda.
Gabriel Attal:
Dubbed "S Macron" by the media, he became the youngest prime minister in French history in January this year at the age of 34. Eric Ciotti
Leader of the French Republican Party (LR), the mainstream Conservative Party. He has called for a coalition with the "National Alliance", which has caused controversy within the Republican Party and is seen as challenging the principle of political segregation from extremist parties. Jean-Luc Mélenchon
The leader of the "Indomitable France" (LFI), who has participated in the presidential election three times, aims to consolidate the votes of left-wing voters and challenge Macron's dominance. Raphaël Glucksmann
A well-known member of the European Parliament and one of the leaders of the New Popular Front. His involvement strengthens the coalition's appeal and potential impact in the election.
What is the importance of the French elections for international repercussions?
France's political instability has isolated it at the European level and undermined trust with Germany, whose cooperation is seen as key to a strong European Union. As one of the EU's major member states and the second largest economy, France's "infighting" is likely to weaken the entire EU, especially as the EU region is facing challenges including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the climate crisis, and the migration crisis.
In addition, France is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has veto power, is a nuclear power, and one of the key NATO allies of the United States – one of the few European countries that has the ability to send a large-scale expeditionary force to a conflict zone along with the United Kingdom. Martin Quencez, director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund, said that a divided government between Macron and a possible far-right prime minister could hamper France's voice on the world stage and influence the attitude of Western countries to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "The differences [between the two sides] on foreign policy and vision are huge," he said. "This could lead to the chancellor and the president not being able to speak unanimously on any international issue, which could create chaos at the European and transatlantic levels." The first round of voting will close at 8 p.m. local time on June 30, and pre-polls show that Macron's Baath Party has 20% of voters, the New Popular Front has 29%, and the "far-right group" National Alliance Party has 36%. There is a good chance that the election will go to a second round of voting, where voters will have to choose between the left and the right.
News and picture sources: CNN, NPR, The Guardian, Washington Post, some pictures are from the exclusive manuscript of iWeekly Weekend Pictorial, please do not reprint without permission