From focusing on cost reduction to focusing on scenarios, how can fuel cell commercialization break through?

According to data from the Gaogong Hydrogen and Power Industry Research Institute (GGII), from January to May 2024, domestic hydrogen vehicle sales were 2,102, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The number of hydrogen vehicles is more than 23,000, of which the new increase in 2023-2024 is the first in the world, and it is expected that the domestic hydrogen vehicle sales will be 8,000-10,000 in 2024, and the domestic number is expected to exceed 30,000.

Although the sales of hydrogen vehicles increased in the first five months, the progress of the hydrogen vehicle demonstration group was not as expected. The total progress of the demonstration in two and a half years is only 36%, and hydrogen vehicles are still facing many difficulties in large-scale commercialization.

At the 2024 (6th) High-tech Hydrogen Power Industry Conference, a number of fuel cell vehicle, system and material industry chain enterprises from GAC Group, Hydrogen Pu Chuangneng, Xiongtao Co., Ltd., Xinyan Hydrogen Energy, Jichong Hydrogen Energy, Hydrogen Blue Era, Yuchai Xinlan Hydrogen Energy, Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy, Fengyuan Hydrogen Energy, Hydwell, Guangtai Hydrogen Energy, Duke New Materials, Huarong Technology, Huanhua Hydrogen Energy, Guoke Lingxian, Shengxin Hydrogen Energy, Qingchi Technology and many other fuel cell vehicle, system and material industry chain enterprises delivered blockbuster speeches and conducted roundtable dialogues. From the collision of their views, we can get a glimpse of the commercial breakthrough path of fuel cell vehicles.

A multi-pronged approach has been taken to promote the commercial breakthrough of fuel cells

At present, there are still many uncertainties facing the fuel cell industry, what should enterprises do next? First, it is necessary to find suitable application scenarios and corresponding business models; Second, based on the advantageous market of fuel cells, we should do what we can, practice basic skills, and do more subtraction; Third, we must continue to promote cost reduction.

"With the continuous iteration of products, the continuous improvement of power, and the continuous reduction of costs, off-road fuel cell applications have also begun to be demonstrated, and small consumer applications below 5kW have been layered out; The inter-provincial transportation of hydrogen heavy trucks is already the most commercially valuable operation scenario for fuel cells. In addition, inland waterway vessels will also be a more advantageous application scenario for fuel cells. Dr. Ouyang Xun, Chairman of Hydrogen Pur Chuangneng, shared.

Dr. Chen Hong, vice president and CTO of Xiongtao Co., Ltd., believes that the commercial use of hydrogen energy should be hydrogen if it is suitable for hydrogen, suitable for electricity and electricity, and suitable for mixing. Xiongtao's hydrogen-lithium hybrid solution can solve the problem of insufficient dynamic response of a single fuel cell, solve the problem of insufficient energy density of a single lithium battery, and the fuel cell/lithium battery hybrid allows different power sources to bear different loads at different stages, thereby improving the efficiency and performance of the whole system.

In recent years, with the development of fuel cells in the direction of high power, the application of ships has begun to be emphasized. Dr. Cao Guijun, director and executive vice president of Hydrogen Blue Times, feels that under the diversified application of hydrogen energy, many places have clearly put forward the demonstration application of hydrogen energy ships in their respective hydrogen energy industry plans, and Hydrogen Blue Times has been exploring hydrogen energy ships. According to him, the hydrogen blue era 80kW marine fuel cell system was established in 2021, and the type test has been completed since August 2, 2023 and the CCS type approval certificate has been obtained.

Dr. Lv Biao, general manager of Yuchai Xinlan Hydrogen Energy, classified the company's fuel cells at different power levels in the application market. He said that the low-power 45-60kW commercial vehicle fuel cell system is mainly used for cold chain logistics and buses; 125-150kW commercial vehicle fuel cell system, mainly used in heavy trucks and buses in the city; and a 250-300kW fuel cell system for commercial vehicles, which will be launched next year, mainly for trunk logistics services.

"Top-level policy guidance + mature supply chain + continuous optimization of technology + rapid cost reduction, fuel cells will usher in an inflection point, but the cost of fuel cells is high and the reliability needs to be improved." Shen Run, general manager of Fengyuan Hydrogen Energy, pointed out.

Dr. Fu Yu, chairman of Jichong Hydrogen Energy, also said that the fuel cell stack market space is huge, and the annual output value of 100 billion to trillion yuan can be reached in the field of vehicles alone, and the key to the industry to achieve an explosion is economy, as long as the stack can be reduced from 1000 yuan/kW to 200 yuan/kW, fuel cell vehicles can be comparable to pure electric vehicles in all application scenarios. The cost reduction path of Jichong hydrogen energy is to reduce the cost of R&D, raw materials, and manufacturing. According to the company's current plan, the cost of Jichong hydrogen energy stack is expected to be less than 200 yuan/kW in 2027.

Solving costs is the basis for fuel cells to move towards large-scale commercialization, and for fuel cell companies, it is necessary to have a "coping strategy in the transition period". Dr. Qi Zhigang, Chief Technology Officer of Xinyan Hydrogen Energy, believes that the current fuel cell market as a whole is still dominated by demonstration applications in the transportation field, and large-scale applications are still in the gestation period. For the current fuel cell enterprises, they should base themselves on the advantageous market of fuel cells, do what they can, practice basic skills, do more subtraction, and form effective strategic cooperation.

Zhang Jian, general manager of Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy brand, agrees with this point of view, and also proposes that fuel cell companies want to be forward-looking in terms of sustainable development, and Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy has adhered to "concentration and evolution" since its establishment 7 years ago, and continues to make product innovation and breakthroughs in the state of "craftsman + scientist".

In addition, from an operational point of view, the guests also pointed out: 1) The passenger car market is expected to promote the rapid cost reduction of hydrogen fuel cell technology in the future due to the scale prospect of annual production and sales of tens of millions. 2) Hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles are used as means of production, and many conditions need to be met to ensure its continuous operation: the hydrogen source needs to be cheap enough, and less than 25 yuan/kg is the key; Within 200km of the hydrogen refueling station and hydrogen source; Hydrogen consumption should be low enough, for example, at a constant speed of 80km/h for a 49T tractor, hydrogen consumption of 9kg/100km is the "admission ticket", and less than 7kg/100km is the target. In addition, it is also suggested that the development of hydrogen vehicles should be developed in combination with specific market demand and the relative advantages of hydrogen vehicles.

The material side helps to reduce costs and improve efficiency to the extreme

Every step forward in the development of fuel cells requires the coordination of the supply chain. At present, key components and core materials such as fuel cell bipolar plates, air compressors, proton exchange membranes, gas diffusion layers, and catalysts are advancing to high performance and low cost.

Under the competitive pressure of the market, graphite board enterprises are actively seeking changes, and the molding process with short time, high efficiency and more in line with the requirements of commercial mass production is more favored by graphite board enterprises.

"The advantage of molded graphite sheet is that it can be made thinner, has a longer service life, and is more conducive to large-scale cost reduction." Zheng Jianbao, general manager of Duke New Materials, said that the manufacturing of molded graphite sheets needs to solve some difficulties, such as the inconsistency between product size and design size, which will lead to reduced power generation performance; After molding or dipping, the product foams easily, resulting in unqualified air tightness.

At this stage, Duke New Materials uses the self-developed and produced graphite prefabricated plates and sealants to produce bipolar plate components, which have excellent performance in weather resistance test, high temperature boiling test, cold and hot shock test and other test links. It has cooperated with a number of domestic leading fuel cell companies for testing and verification, and has now completed the development and product supply of seven sets of molded graphite bipolar plate molds for customers.

Huarong Technology has a different view on graphite bipolar plates. Bao Xianjun, deputy general manager of Huarong Technology, said that from the current indicators of several graphite bipolar plates, the density of isostatic composite graphite plates is greater than 2.0 g/cm3, and its structural strength is a little better than that of flexible graphite and graphite composites, and the bending resistance, compressive resistance, conductivity, and ion content are superior to flexible graphite and graphite composites.

"Huanhua Hydrogen Energy has introduced the concept of lean manufacturing into the production process of flexible graphite bipolar plates, which makes flexible graphite bipolar plates play a very important role in cost control as a means of large-scale mass production in the future." Dr. Zhang Ruiming, Chief Scientist of Huanhua Hydrogen Energy, said that as hydrogen energy and fuel cells enter the marketization stage, there will be major changes in fuel cell technology and fuel cell manufacturing system, and the next generation of stacks/electrolytic stacks and their key components will be refined development and intelligent mass production.

As fuel cell systems soar toward higher power, the corresponding BOP components are also facing a series of new requirements brought about by increased power. For air compressors, the change of adaptation range and the increase in power consumption brought about by the increase of system power are a thorny problem.

"The innovation of air compressor technology and configuration also helps to reduce the cost of fuel cells." Dr. Gu Ronglei, Chairman of Hydwell, believes that the current high-power application scenario is the core value application scenario of fuel cells in the future, and the higher the power, the greater the power consumption, and the electric turbine-assisted air compressor can help the fuel cell system greatly improve efficiency and reduce hydrogen consumption. The hydrogen heavy-duty truck with a system power of 240kW has a peak point power consumption of 50kW for the electric air compressor, while the peak point power consumption of the electric turbine-assisted air compressor can be reduced to 38kW, saving 12kW.

It is considered to be the core part of the localization of fuel cell materials, and how to dispel the doubts of membrane electrode and stack companies is very crucial.

Zhang Jing, general manager of Qingchi Technology, said that the company has realized the adjustable performance, controllable quality and expected cost of proton exchange membrane through the localization of raw materials and equipment. Through the preparation and combination of dispersions, additives and reinforcing layers with different characteristics, the company achieves the mechanical, polarization and durability properties of PEM, comprehensively benchmarks imported competing products, realizes process control of the quality of raw materials and finished products, and has cost and supply advantages.

It has always been the fuel cell material with the lowest localization rate, and Dr. Wu Gangping, founder/general manager of CAS Lingxian, said that the mass production of carbon paper is difficult because of the long process route and many control links. The carbon paper products of Guoke Lingxian are comprehensively covered from carbon fiber, with outstanding technical advantages, and can be customized according to application scenarios and user needs with high-throughput, long-life and low-cost gas diffusion layer.

Dr. Wang Dawei, general manager of Shengxin Hydrogen Energy, said that with the growth of industrial scale, the cost of stacks is gradually decreasing, but the cost proportion of catalysts is gradually increasing, because precious metals are used in catalysts, and the localization rate of fuel cell catalysts is still relatively low. At this stage, domestic catalyst technology needs to break through three levels: 1. Reduce the polarization of fuel cells and improve the efficiency of fuel cells; 2. The durability should meet the actual working conditions; 3. The production capacity, batch consistency, and cost of industrialization should meet the market demand.