Introduction
1. "High-frequency, small-amount, high-quality" land supply drives the spotted recovery of the land market;
2. The total amount of the top 100 land acquisitions fell by 40% year-on-year; 3. The sales ratio of the top 100 land acquisition continued to remain at a low level of 0.14, and the investment amount of typical real estate enterprises in April and June increased by 101% month-on-month and decreased by 75% year-on-year; 5. In the first half of the year, only 30% of the top 100 real estate companies took land, and 70% of the enterprises took land fell year-on-year; 6. High-quality and low-density land plots will be stimulated to increase, and corporate investment may rebound in the second half of the year.
☉ Text: CRC Research Center
Interpretation of the list
Foreword: In June, the land market continued the strategy of "high frequency, small quantity, and high quality", and the transfer of hot land plots in Hangzhou, Hefei and other cities drove the land market to pick up in a spotted manner, and central state-owned enterprises such as Poly Development, China Resources, and C&D all acquired land in the same month. On the whole, corporate investment continued to contract in the first six months, and the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 investors from January to June fell by 40% year-on-year, a new high since 2023. In addition, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies is only 0.14, and the cautious attitude is clear at a glance.
Looking forward to the future, under the stimulus of the continuous strengthening of regulation and control on the land side and the increase of high-quality low-density land plots, the popularity of land auctions in Qingdao, Nanjing and other places has rebounded, and the investment intensity of enterprises may rebound in the second half of the year under the continuous improvement of land supply quality.
1
"High-frequency, small-amount, high-quality" land supply
Drive the land market to pick up in points
As of June 25, 41.52 million square meters of operating land were traded in 300 cities across the country, an increase of 22% over the same period last month and a year-on-year decrease of 32%.
Among the first- and second-tier cities, by the time of writing, Xi'an had a transaction area of more than 800,000 square meters, while the rest of the cities were below 700,000 square meters, Beijing and Xiamen had a transaction value of more than 10 billion yuan, and the rest of the cities were below 5 billion yuan. In order to ensure the appropriate land market heat and transaction frequency under the premise of controlling the scale of inventory, the "high-frequency, low-volume, high-quality" land supply strategy is becoming more and more common at the local level.
With the increase in the proportion of high-quality land transactions, the average floor price rose to 2,877 yuan / square meter in the month, an increase of 19% month-on-month, returning to the average value of the past year.
2
The total amount of the top 100 land acquisitions fell by 40% year-on-year
As of the end of June, the threshold value of the top 100 new land reserves was 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, and the new total price and the threshold of the top 100 construction areas were 990 million yuan and 221,000 square meters, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 37% and 16%, and the year-on-year decline of the top 100 thresholds of various values changed little compared with the end of May.
More than half of 2024, corporate investment has not improved, with only 5 enterprises and 12 enterprises with a land acquisition amount of more than 20 billion yuan from January to June, a decrease of 4 and 3 respectively from the same period last year.
In terms of total volume, the decline continued to expand: in the first six months, the total value of new goods, the total price and the total construction area of the top 100 were 941.1 billion yuan, 420.4 billion yuan and 49.95 million square meters, respectively, down 34%, 40% and 19% year-on-year, respectively, and the year-on-year decline in the total amount of land acquired hit a new high since 2023, and the contraction of enterprise investment is still serious.
3
The land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 continued to remain at a low level of 0.14
From January to June, the investment willingness of the top 100 real estate companies also remained low, and with the decline of the sales echelon, the enthusiasm for land acquisition also continued to decline:
From January to June, the ratio of land acquisition to sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell to 0.14, a decrease of 0.01 from the end of last month. In terms of echelons, the more advanced the sales echelon, the more active the investment. The land-to-sales ratio of the top 10 real estate companies is 0.15, which is the highest among all echelons, but the land-to-sales ratio of each echelon is hovering at a low level, and the gap is not large.
In terms of concentration, the new value of the top 10 real estate companies accounted for 53% of the total value of the top 100, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the end of last month, followed by the top 11-20 accounted for 16% of the new value, and the first two echelons have accounted for nearly 70% of the new value.
4
The amount of investment in typical real estate enterprises increased by 101% month-on-month in June
Decline from 75%
In June, the amount of land acquired by typical real estate enterprises stopped falling and rebounded. The key monitoring of 30 real estate enterprises in a single month investment of 28.8 billion yuan, an increase of 101% month-on-month, on the one hand, is caused by the low base in May, on the other hand, Nanjing, Hefei and other core cities in the middle of the year to attract the active participation of large-scale enterprises. However, it is still down 75% year-on-year, which is far from the amount of land acquired in the same period last year. Specifically, central state-owned enterprises such as Poly Development, China Shipping, and China Resources continued to make efforts in core cities, while C&D continued to maintain a positive trend, with a monthly land acquisition amount of more than 8 billion yuan.
5
In the first half of the year, only 30% of the top 100 real estate companies took land
Seventy percent of enterprises have a year-on-year decline in the amount of land acquired
In the first half of the year as a whole, real estate investment became more and more cautious, with only 30% of the top 100 real estate companies taking land, mainly the "old faces" of the top 30 sales, and the investment amount accounted for 82% of the top 100 real estate companies.
In addition, 70% of the top 100 real estate companies that have acquired land have invested in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and the top 10 sales have declined to varying degrees, even if the investment pace of central state-owned enterprises will slow down significantly in 2024. Among them, more than 30% of enterprises fell by more than 50% year-on-year, Vanke and COSCO fell by more than 90%, and Poly Development and China Shipping fell by more than 70% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, although the amount of land acquired by Binjiang and Yuexiu was at the top of the industry, it still fell by 44% and 45% year-on-year. Only C&D, China Railway Construction, Longfor, etc. fell by less than 15%. It can be seen that under the slowdown of the pace of land supply and the lack of high-quality land plots, the willingness of enterprises to invest and expand is not high.
It is worth noting that there are still 30% of the enterprises that have increased the amount of land year-on-year, among which the central state-owned enterprises such as China Construction Yipin, Lianfa and Guomao have performed relatively prominently, with a large year-on-year increase, and the land acquisition is mainly concentrated in the first and second tier cities.
6
High-quality low-density plots are stimulated to increase
In the second half of the year, corporate investment may pick up
In the face of the decline in the speed of sales de-escalation, local governments have successively strengthened regulation and control, and while the supply is shrinking, they have also strengthened the stimulation of high-quality low-density land plots, which has made the popularity of land auctions in Qingdao and Nanjing increase significantly. Next, Nanjing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Changsha, Hefei and other cities will still have low-density residential land transfers, stimulated by these high-quality plots, the heat of the land auction market is expected to rebound in a dotted manner, and the development expectations of the core sector will be restored.
As far as enterprises are concerned, under the gradual restoration of market confidence and the improvement of land supply quality, it is expected that the investment intensity of real estate enterprises will increase compared with the first half of the year. However, due to the limited scale of land supply and the financial pressure of enterprises has not been substantially alleviated, it is difficult to change the cautious investment attitude in the short term. Typesetting: Jenny, Feng Jie
The copyright of this article belongs to CRIC Research Center, please do not reprint without authorization
The above represents the views of the CRIC Research Center team and is for reference only
Reprinted with the source: CRIC Real Estate Research (cricyjzx) Thank you for your cooperation