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The Sino-US financial war has entered a critical period, and the US commercial real estate has thundered, releasing a signal of failure!
Something big is happening in the United States again! Wall Street's highest-level triple-A financial product has exploded, the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. But the strange thing is that the American media did not report it, and those public figures in China did not talk about it. But this actually released a major signal, that is, the Sino-US financial war has reached a critical moment, and the United States has exploded a big thunder inside, and it is almost impossible to hold on!
Some people may say, don't just say that the United States can't do it, don't we have our own difficulties, housing prices are high, jobs are hard to find, and wages are not rising. Indeed, the economy has not developed as fast as in the past 20 years, and everyone has not had a good time. The reason for this is the lack of global demand on the one hand, and the interest rate hike by the dollar on the other.
Why is global demand insufficient? If you think about it, since the last time the Internet revolution drove the development of smartphones, there has been no technological change of this magnitude in the world. China, as the largest industrial country, is particularly affected by this. Although some people say that artificial intelligence is coming, it has been passed on for many years, and there are still more bubbles and less dry goods, so we have to continue to boil.
The US dollar interest rate hike has always been a means for the United States to engage in financial arbitrage, and Latin America and Southeast Asia have suffered losses in this regard, with money running away, industries being lost, and the economy regressing sharply. Now that the U.S. base interest rate is at 5.5%, what's the concept? If you exchange your money for dollars and put it in the bank, you can do nothing and have a 5.5% interest for a year, who wants to go to the trouble to invest? Enterprises don't want to invest, ordinary people also choose to lie flat, can economic development not be slow?
So when will we get better? The key juncture is the US dollar interest rate cut. But the United States is competing with us, and it will not take any benefits from us, and will never cut interest rates. As a result, the United States itself first held back its internal injuries, and this explosion of triple-A rated products is ironclad evidence.
Why is this a big deal? It is very likely that the continuous explosion of commercial real estate in the United States is about to begin. According to data released by the United States, the default was an investment product secured by Manhattan gold commercial real estate, with a default amount of 308 million. Don't think it's a lot of money, but this time it's not ordinary, it's like lighting a cigarette in an arsenal and maybe it's going to blow up later.
3A products have the highest safety factor in the United States, almost no risk, US Treasury bonds are 3A level, and our Chinese Treasury bonds are only A+ level if they are not in default. Even this can happen, so what else can be reassuring?
The product structure of this explosion is not complicated, and the capitalist borrowed 308 million yuan from the bank with commercial office buildings as collateral. The bank packaged the office building as a financial product and sold it to investors, but when the capitalists could not pay the money when it expired, the bank took it to auction and could not sell it at all, and finally had to sell it at a three-fold discount.
So why does this product get a triple-A rating? Just because it is in Manhattan, which is the nest of Wall Street, equivalent to our Lujiazui in Shanghai, and is a prime location in the financial center, it is considered as scarce as gold and favored by banks. It's a pity, no matter how much you resist the fall, it's still thunder. This reflects the crisis of commercial real estate in the United States, why? It's still the US dollar interest rate hike to make trouble!
The arrow that was originally intended to be shot at China ended up piercing the leg of the United States itself, and the Manhattan financial real estate explosion is the best proof of this. Since the Fed raised interest rates in 2022, in just two years, U.S. office prices have fallen by more than 20%, and no one wants a 20% discount.
Commercial real estate has fallen sharply, and the famous Blackstone Group has also planted a big heel. In 2022, it and Pan Shiyi failed to talk about mergers and acquisitions, and the office building that it bought for $600 million in Manhattan in 2014 has recently fallen miserably, and it will be sold for 186 million, which is a triple discount!
The fire in the market has been lit, and now we have to wait for the powder kegs to explode. According to statistics, there are a large number of bank loans secured by commercial real estate in the United States, with more than $1 trillion due in 2025 alone.
After the wave of bank failures, the United States has blown up such a big thunder, and it seems that the fortress often collapses from within. This pressure has been put on the Federal Reserve, and the domestic economic problems are getting bigger and bigger. U.S. investment institutions are predicting a rate cut in the fourth quarter, why is this time? Because of the emptiness of the American national body, coupled with the chaos of the presidential election, it will be completely unbearable. In other words, by the fourth quarter, the first phase of the Sino-US financial war was over, and the United States not only did not cut China's leeks, but instead lifted a stone and shot itself in the foot.
The hardest time is often the time when you are closest to victory, and it is the time when you need to work hardest the most. If we can't get through it, the achievements of our reform and opening up in the past few decades may be gone, and we will fall into the trap of developing countries. If you get through it, it's going to be a good day. At present, China has the upper hand in the Sino-US financial war, and it will soon be clear who will win in the end.
So, don't just stare at whether housing prices are high or not, and whether wages will rise. At this stage, the most important thing for the country is to win the financial war between China and the United States, and we feel uncomfortable and tired, because the country is concentrating national resources to do this major thing. At this time, let's understand more, complain less, and do our own things well, which is what every ordinary person should do.