Recently, the RMB has continued to depreciate, which is very eye-catching, and many people are familiar with the problem again, maintaining the exchange rate? Or is it a property market?
In fact, this is not just a problem of the property market, but a major proposition related to China's economy in the second half of the year. Where will the economy go in the next few years?
Two days ago, the offshore yuan broke through the important mark of 7.3, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new low this year.
In fact, this wave of RMB depreciation began at the beginning of the year, although there were some repetitions in the middle, but the RMB exchange rate still depreciated from about 7.1 to about 7.3, a depreciation of nearly 3%.
It has depreciated by 3% in half a year, which is not small for the RMB exchange rate, which has always been relatively stable. The U.S. dollar has raised interest rates so sharply that the renminbi depreciated by less than 5% last year.
This wave of renminbi depreciation is a matter of course, but it is a little strange, and it is no wonder that some people think too much.
We say that it came as a matter of course, first of all, in the context of the US dollar interest rate hike, the global currency depreciated against the US dollar, which is the general trend.
However, it is clear that the recent depreciation of the renminbi is mainly caused by the malicious depreciation of the yen, and the interest rate cuts of major currencies such as the euro have also begun to depreciate, which has boosted it.
Some people say that, according to our tradition, it is strange to let the renminbi fall below the 7.3 mark and not intervene.
So, to protect the exchange rate or the property market? This long-standing problem has popped up again.
So what does the exchange rate have to do with the property market? This question can be viewed in two ways.
First, theoretically speaking, the impact of the exchange rate on the property market is mainly achieved by affecting capital flows. In an economy with free capital flows, when the exchange rate is expected to depreciate, capital outflows can lead to a decline in domestic asset prices, and housing prices are no exception.
Of course, our capital is not free to move, houses are not completely free and open to purchase, and housing prices are less directly affected by foreign capital.
However, if the exchange rate depreciates too quickly, the impact on the economy and asset prices will be too great, and real estate will also fall into a downturn.
Second, for many years, the property market and the exchange rate seem to be only one guarantee.
If the property market is good, interest rates will have to be cut, and interest rate cuts will cause the exchange rate to fall. On the contrary, if the interest rate is raised, the exchange rate can be preserved, and the RMB appreciates, but the property market will be suppressed.
Therefore, many people see the current depreciation of the renminbi and do not save the exchange rate, thinking that this is to protect the property market.
However, as far as China's real estate is concerned, the impact of the exchange rate on the property market is very complex, and the real estate itself is also very complex.
Mortgage rates are low today compared to previous years. A few years ago, when the mortgage interest rate was high, the property market was crazy and the house price soared, but now the mortgage interest rate is low, and the house price has not risen?
Yesterday we said that the current real estate blockage is mainly because everyone is afraid to buy a house, which is an economic problem and a psychological problem.
At present, domestic demand is sluggish, and real estate is also a part of consumption. Whether ordinary people dare to spend money to spend money on consumption is actually the same problem as whether they dare to spend money to buy a house.
Therefore, this wave of RMB depreciation has little to do with real estate, whether it can save the exchange rate, and whether it has much to do with real estate.
Of course, if interest rate hikes are to stabilize the exchange rate, real estate will also be affected. But the impact is limited, and now whether people buy a house or not is not a question of high or low mortgage interest rates.
The RMB exchange rate has continued to fall this year, and the more serious question is that many people say, is it because China's economy is not working, which has caused the exchange rate to be unable to support?
This statement is unfounded, earlier we talked about the reasons for the depreciation of the people, the dollar interest rate hike cycle, the Americans want to maintain a strong dollar, the yen maliciously depreciated, the euro and other major currencies have also cut interest rates, followed by depreciation.
Therefore, the global currency exchange rate is a big game of chess, but also a big battlefield, whether there is a financial war or not, the changes in the world monetary policy and exchange rate in the past two years have had a very big impact on the world economy.
In addition, in the long run, we are not afraid of a slow depreciation of the renminbi, because it is good for exports, and at the same time does not affect the position of the renminbi in international payments.
Why? Some people worry that if the currency depreciates and the value of the currency is unstable, it will affect the confidence of foreign countries to hold the renminbi and as a reserve currency.
However, more than 80% of the international payment of the renminbi is based on our own large-scale international trade, and China is the largest trading partner of more than 130 countries, and these trades will need the renminbi.
This is fundamentally different from the US dollar, where most international payments are financial transactions, such as futures, stocks, and even money laundering.
In other words, the international payment of the renminbi is in fact based on the Chinese economy, while the international payment of the US dollar has a much lower proportion of actual trade.
Therefore, the US dollar is the world currency, and behind the renminbi is China's trade and China's economy.
If we start from this line of thinking, China's economy, international trade and foreign investment will still be important in the second half of the year, while the domestic focus will still be on consumption, which also includes stabilizing real estate.
Generally speaking, the economy is a long-term and sustained process of improvement, and it is necessary to rely on hard work and accumulation, and it is difficult to have any short-term miracles.
At present, China's economy has begun a new cycle, which is centered on the adjustment of real estate, scientific and technological innovation and the rise of mid-to-high-end manufacturing industrial clusters.
This cycle, at least more than 10 years, will take us to see significant changes.