Friends, driven by the weekend and the national team's funds, the market has finally achieved a good start in July, with the GEM falling by more than 1% at most, and the closing bottom and rebounding, and the entire market closing stocks rose more and fell less, which can be regarded as a change in sentiment.
For today's rise, in addition to the national team's funds to pull up the weight of the disk, it is also related to a central bank-related news at noon today, indicating that some funds have begun to shoot in advance, and the game will be followed by a possible rebound in the stock market:
1. What does it mean that the central bank has decided to take action and decide to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the open market in the near future?
The picture comes from the Financial Associated Press
The news came out at noon, but there was a reaction at the opening of the bond market today, indicating that some funds had begun to act in advance.
What does it mean for the central bank to borrow treasury bonds? Many people may not be familiar with this operation, but today we will use simple words to explain this matter:
The central bank carries out treasury bond borrowing operations from primary dealers, which generally refers to the central bank's purchase of government bonds or bonds of other financial institutions through open market operations, which is the borrowing of bonds.
This is one of the monetary policy tools, and it is also a way for the central bank to regulate the level of money supply and interest rates in the market, indicating that the central bank's monetary policy toolbox is beginning to open.
When the central bank borrows bonds, it is equivalent to putting liquidity into the market, which can increase the available funds of commercial banks and other financial institutions, which can not only reduce market interest rates, but also stimulate the economy;
After borrowing treasury bonds, once the treasury bonds are sold in the secondary market in the future, it can suppress the price of treasury bonds, stabilize the interest rate level of long-term treasury bonds, and prevent large fluctuations in the interest rate of treasury bonds.
What is the impact? This has to be analyzed from two perspectives: the stock market and the bond market:
First of all, for the stock market, the central bank borrows bonds from primary dealers to release liquidity, which is good for the stock market.
Secondly, from the perspective of the bond market, as soon as the central bank news comes out, everyone will find that the market price of treasury bonds has fallen rapidly, and the 30-year treasury bond futures contract has fallen significantly, and the bond market has reacted relatively quickly, especially the decline in the price of long-term bonds, which will help stabilize the interest rate of long-term bonds;
Because for the bond market, long-term bonds are the anchor of financial asset pricing. The bond market price has risen too much, it has risen crazy for 30 years, and the yield has continued to fall, out of the controlled range, which has also attracted a large number of funds to do the bond market at this time.
Now is to stabilize the price of long-term bonds and re-consolidate the anchor of asset pricing, which will inevitably squeeze out the bond market funds and curb the speculation in the bond market, which is conducive to the rebound and repair of the stock market.
In general, the operation of the central bank can be said to kill two birds with one stone, which can not only prevent the overheated speculation of the bond market, but also squeeze out the popular funds in the bond market, which may return to the A-share market, which is also good for the stock market; Most critically, the decline in the price of 30-year bonds, the recovery of yields, and the stabilization of interest rates have helped stabilize the price of financial assets.
2. The market is approaching the 3,000-point mark, how will the A-share market go tomorrow?
Today, more than 3,500 stocks in the two cities rose, and the only deficiency was that the market was still shrinking, and the turnover was not released, so it failed to break through 3,000 points today.
In the state of shrinkage, it is a good thing not to break through 3,000 points, because once it breaks through 3,000 points, the market will encounter a certain amount of selling pressure, and it is basically difficult to rush through the shrinkage.
And this morning is still a typical pattern of strong market and weak GEM, indicating that the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have a large divergence, and if only the market rises, small and medium-sized enterprises cannot be repaired, even if the market stands at 3,000 points, it is easy to fall down again.
And for tomorrow's market, how to go? Tell me what you think:
(1) First of all, the market has walked out of the trend of 2 consecutive yangs, which is equivalent to establishing 2933 points as the bottom of the short-term low, and you don't have to worry about hitting a new low again in the short term, which is a good thing emotionally;
(2) Secondly, today's gem has also come out of the bottom of the rebound, which means that many stocks have also come out of the bottom in the afternoon, driven by the rise in the weight of the market in the morning, many stocks in the afternoon took the initiative to rebound and repair, and tomorrow's market may have a general reversal;
(3) Finally, the brokerage sector bottomed out, which is more critical today, last Friday's brokerage sector dived, for the major indices is a significant drag, today's brokerage bottoming out, the major indices once collectively turned red, which is a good signal.
As I said last night, if the brokerage does not fall today, then the market will be tempting even if it rises, because in the end, the brokerage will bring the index down;
If the brokerage bottoms out and stops falling, the rise of the brokerage will ignite market sentiment, which also shows that the rebound is a real rebound.
We all know that the brokerage sector has been more bearish recently, and if the brokerage sector stops falling and rebounds, it is equivalent to a rebound that is bearish, which is beneficial to the continuation of the rebound of the entire market.
Therefore, from the above three aspects, it may be easier for the brokerage to stop falling and help the index hit 3,000 points, and the bottoming out of the gem means that small and medium-sized stocks may usher in the opportunity of a rotational rebound.
Because the A-share market cannot always rise large-cap blue-chip stocks, today's real estate, non-ferrous metals, coal, power and oil and other large-cap stocks rose, after the market sentiment stabilized, funds will game the rebound of theme stocks.
Therefore, after the market hits 3,000 points tomorrow, it may enter a narrow range of shocks, and the market style is expected to turn to the rebound of small and medium-sized stocks.
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