In today's world, there are countless international organizations of all kinds.
The largest is naturally the United Nations, in which almost all sovereign countries are located, and this is to provide a platform for dialogue and exchange.
It is very difficult to do something at the United Nations, after all, there are more than 100 mouths, and there are several hard fists, and in the end, many things are wasted in meetings and dialogues.
But it's much better than before World War II, when countries didn't agree on anything.
The rest are various regional organizations, such as the G7, the European Union, ASEAN, the African Union, the Arab League, OPEC and so on.
However, most international organizations will gradually fall into the problem of insufficient cohesion and insufficient execution, the reason is also very simple, the more countries that join, each member of the organization will always play their own small calculations, small problems accumulate into big problems, and slowly things will not be decided, and the executive power of the organization will decline, and the attractiveness of the organization will also decline.
This is very similar to the various chambers of commerce organizations in various places, at the beginning there are few members, goals, directions, usually help each other to take care of business, after a long time, more and more enterprises join the chamber of commerce, the chamber of commerce more and more becomes a talk hall, and finally it has become a form of regular gatherings and dinners held several times a year.
The two organizations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS, on which the University of Tokyo now relies more, have actually encountered these problems.
Two days ago, this year's BRICS rotating chairmanship, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said that according to the collective decision of the BRICS countries, the organization will suspend the expansion of the organization, and now focus on digestion and internal integration.
01
As the world enters the 21st century, it is a period of rapid globalization, and several major developing countries have shown vigorous development.
In 2010, China, India, Russia, Brazil, and Yugoslavia informally formed the BRICS organization.
As representatives of developing countries, these five countries are representative in terms of area, population, economy, resources, potential, and international influence.
The purpose of the BRICS is to follow the principles of openness, transparency, solidarity and mutual assistance, deepen cooperation and seek common development, and the BRICS spirit of openness, inclusiveness, cooperation and win-win results, and strive to build a closer, comprehensive and solid partnership.
Based on the BRICS, the five countries initiated the establishment of the BRICS New Development Bank, headquartered in Shanghai, as an internal financing platform and channel.
On the basis of the cooperation of the five countries, in 2017, China proposed the "BRICS+" cooperation mechanism, and the BRICS expanded cooperation and dialogue with developing countries, and the influence of the BRICS gradually increased.
In the early stage of the establishment of the organization, it should be said that the cooperation within the BRICS is still relatively close and normal, and everyone maintains roughly the same position and voice on major international and economic issues, actively promotes and enhances the voice of developing countries in global governance, and promotes the third world's voice on many issues in the world.
However, due to well-known reasons, the Western world, especially after the ascension of Trump to the throne, the world's geopolitical game has undergone violent shocks.
The forces of the East and the West are declining from one another, the competition between the great powers has come to the front of the stage from the stage, and the United States has resorted to naked bayonets to kill the red.
The world situation has changed dramatically, and countries have to find their own place in the turbulence of the situation.
And during and after this, India played the role of a "retrograde" of the BRICS, which was not very good.
In the past few years of Trump, Modi and Trump generally sympathized with each other, and India's diplomatic line was somewhat biased towards the United States.
For his second term, Lao Xian's internal and foreign affairs have rectified some more impulsive work, such as the Doklam confrontation, and later, in order to divert the epidemic crisis, he also rectified the conflict in the river valley.
Basically, once India engages in it, and once it suffers a loss, it will hold a grudge once.
Of course, there are more problems than that.
02
In January 2024, the five countries joined the BRICS under the impetus of the BRICS+ cooperation mechanism.
They are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia.
These countries are either more influential in the region, such as Egypt or Ethiopia; Either the kind of countries that are rich in resources or have a strong ability to make money, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
Of course, we can note that there are 4 of these countries that are wooden commanders.
Which country in the world has suppressed Commander Mu the most? Except for the third brother, no one dares to say first.
Lao Xian has always been committed to building a Hindu country, coupled with the hatred between India and Pakistan, he has always adopted a policy of suppression and discrimination against Commander Mu.
Although it is a minority in India, it is also a huge group of 200 million to 300 million people, which is the second largest country in the world after Indonesia.
Those countries have a lot of opinions about India.
For India, what the BRICS needs for India is not only to get the loans needed for development, but also to have a voice in the international community.
In fact, the current BRICS speaker is China, after all, this is an economic cooperation organization, and China's economy is much larger than that of other countries combined.
However, India is very eager to touch the role of the speaker, and in an organization where China is the core of leadership, India is extremely unconvinced.
Coupled with factors such as history and borders, India's mentality in this organization has become somewhat abnormal, and it has gradually become a restraining force within the organization.
In fact, if we look at the surrounding environment of India, we can understand that it is surrounded by nine neighboring countries, large and small, Sikkim has been annexed by it, Bhutan has been actually controlled by it, Nepal is relatively deadlocked, Pakistan is an enemy country, and relations with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives are not good.
This is a regional hegemonic country in South Asia, and the boss is used to it, and he wants to sit in first class on the world stage.
03
BRICS is an organization on which the majority of third world countries have placed high hopes.
Through China's development and rise, the development of the BRICS in recent years has given hope and enthusiasm to developing countries.
We need an international organization that can do things and promote everyone's development.
However, in order to avoid becoming a talk hall, first of all, it is necessary to clarify a leading country, a core, and a core that can effectively lead everyone to development.
There is and only one possibility of this, China.
First of all, the strength is sufficient, and it is also the largest trading partner of more than 150 countries, and the weight is large enough, and everyone is convinced.
The second is China's development in the past few decades, which is a miracle of human development for hundreds of years, which, of course, cannot be replicated.
Others, military, science and technology, culture, industry, etc., are also far ahead.
In addition, China is the fifth permanent member of the Security Council and the core of the G77 + China organization, which includes more than 120 developing countries.
In order to draw China into the G77, they specially changed the name of the organization to "G77 + China".
To be honest, China is, in fact, the leader recognized by the countries of the Global South.
Once the leader is determined, the next thing that needs to be done is actually to "optimize" the interior.
To maintain the vitality of the organization, at least everyone should be coordinated, in the same direction, and work together.
To put it bluntly, India is not playing a good role within the BRICS, and in 2023, India, as the rotating chair of the BRICS, has created a miasma, making either Russia too lazy or China too lazy to go.
Deliberately stirring up the situation and destroying the overall situation, India thinks that it has taken advantage and is very proud, but everyone has a lot of opinions.
In the past two years, especially since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has continued to make small moves and played the role of a spoiler.
The result is also obvious, in June 2024, the first foreign ministers' meeting after the BRICS expansion, the Indian foreign minister was absent.
If you continue to do this, it will greatly affect the healthy development of the organization, and also affect the enthusiasm of new members and the importance of the organization.
It is also necessary to properly organize some "optimization" measures, otherwise it will be difficult for the organization to develop for a long time.
Finally, in order for an organization to have long-term vitality, in addition to optimizing itself, it should attract new members on a daily basis, and should focus on selecting countries with a certain strength, a certain responsibility, and political and social stability, which can work together to make the BRICS continue to grow and develop.
As for the countries that we commonly see in the international community and are prone to sharp turns and sharp turns, forget it.