The path and challenges of the energy transition: "systems thinking" and "efficiency principles" lead the transformation

Reporter Dong Shuguang reports from Beijing

On June 29, the first "National Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality" Forum, sponsored by the Economic Management Press and supported by the well-known domestic energy transition research team "Zhu Tong Energy Transition Research", was successfully held in Beijing. The forum gathered many experts and scholars in the field of energy to discuss the path and challenges of national energy transition and carbon neutrality, and simultaneously released the first monograph of the "National Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality" series edited by Zhu Tong, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Shi Dan, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized in his speech at the forum: "New energy is not only an important force to promote the development of new productive forces, but also an important part of it. ”

New energy promotes multi-field transformation and integration

Stan pointed out that the rapid development of new energy has become the most dynamic part of the current market, and from a historical perspective, every scientific and technological progress and industrial transformation is closely linked to the transformation of energy. From coal to oil and gas to electricity, the energy revolution has always gone hand in hand with the technological revolution. At present, the fourth scientific and technological revolution is emerging, the energy revolution is also in the same parallel and in the leading position, and the new energy industry such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation is showing explosive growth in the world, showing the huge potential of new energy as a new quality of productivity.

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the 11th collective study of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee that green development is the background color of high-quality development, and new quality productivity itself is green productivity.

"The underlying reason for this assertion is that the new round of technological revolution includes the energy revolution," Stan said. Without low-carbon energy transformation, we will not be able to achieve true green development, let alone understand that the new productive force is green production. The role of the energy revolution in promoting the development of new quality productivity not only involves the development of the new energy industry and the renewal and reform of the energy structure, but also includes the substantial improvement of efficiency, and is also accompanied by the innovation and change of the energy system. ”

Today, Stan argues, factors of production are no longer limited to traditional capital and labor, and digital factors are gradually integrated into the production function. In addition, Stan pointed out: "When discussing new quality productivity, it is impossible to ignore that new energy is also an important new element. "New energy is fundamentally different from traditional energy, and its characteristics, characteristics and social benefits are also different. Therefore, when discussing the new quality of productivity, in-depth research should be carried out on the new element of new energy.

The development of new energy technology not only accelerates the rapid growth of the new energy industry itself, but also promotes the integration of new energy with other industries. For example, innovative applications such as agricultural photovoltaics and building photovoltaics, as well as the extensive application of distributed photovoltaics in the industrial field, have given birth to new formats and business models.

When talking about the impact of new energy on traditional energy sources, Stan said that new energy plays an important role in reducing carbon emissions and improving efficiency.

"When we go into the oil field or coal mine, we will see the use of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation in the production site, as new energy gradually becomes the dominant energy source in the energy structure, it will profoundly affect and promote the reform of the energy system. At present, the essence of the new energy market consumption problem often discussed in the industry is not that the market does not accept and does not accept, but the acceptability of the traditional energy transmission and distribution system to new energy. In other words, we need to think about how to improve the compatibility of traditional power grids with new energy sources, so as to improve the green efficiency and sustainability of the entire energy system.

"At present, the proportion of new energy power generation in the mainland is only 15%-20%, which is a great progress. However, in order to achieve the dual carbon goal, we need to increase the proportion of new energy to 60%-80%. If we continue to use the excuse that the traditional power grid cannot accept more new energy sources and do not develop new energy, then we will still stay in the traditional way of development and will not be able to achieve a real energy transition. Therefore, Stan said, we need to change this way of thinking and find new solutions, rather than complaining that the market can't absorb more new energy.

The energy revolution insists on establishing first and then breaking down

At the forum, Wu Yin, academic advisor of the China Energy Research Society and former deputy director of the National Energy Administration, delivered a speech entitled "Some Thoughts on Deepening the Energy Revolution". He pointed out that the mainland's total energy consumption will reach 5.72 billion tons of standard coal in 2023, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year.

In the face of the unexpected growth of energy consumption, it is necessary to build a new development pattern, pay close attention to energy conservation, optimize the domestic consumption environment and consumption structure, and expand domestic demand.

Wu Yin stressed that to promote the energy revolution should be based on the mainland's energy resource endowment, adhere to the first establishment and then break, overall planning, and the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy must be based on safe and reliable substitution. He proposed a path for the orderly development of methanol fuel, including the modification of burners and the use of modified methanol technology to overcome the side effects of methanol as a fuel. At the same time, he also discussed the low-carbon utilization of coal resources and put forward the idea of exploring the development of underground coal gasification.

Wu Yin pointed out that a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is reshaping the global innovation map and reshaping the global economic structure. The application of digital technologies such as cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, mobile communications, and blockchain has shortened the R&D time and reduced the R&D cost. He stressed that the energy technology revolution plays a decisive role in the energy revolution and must be placed at the core of the overall energy development. To further promote the energy technology revolution, we must fully mobilize the enthusiasm of talents and improve the energy science and technology innovation system and mechanism.

Professor Li Zheng, Dean of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University and Director of the Low Carbon Energy Laboratory at Tsinghua University, shared his thoughts on the mainland's energy transition. He pointed out that addressing climate change and carbon neutrality has become a broad global consensus, and the political consensus on zero-carbon commitments at the global level and the general trend of system transformation have become very clear.

In particular, Li Zheng mentioned the UAE Consensus, emphasizing the importance of transitioning the energy system away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, so that the world can achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Li Zheng also analyzed international cases such as the European Green Deal, and pointed out that improving national competitiveness is an important pursuit of national carbon neutrality strategies. He mentioned that the U.S. will halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieve a zero-emission goal by 2050, a shift that shows a fundamental change in attitudes towards climate action in these countries.

Li Zheng stressed that in the process of promoting energy transition and carbon neutrality, the mainland must simultaneously achieve the dual carbon goals and energy security, and deal with the balance between development security and green transformation.

"Systems Thinking" and "Efficiency Principles"

Driven by the "dual carbon" policy, the mainland's energy transition and carbon reduction process has been further accelerated, but it also faces a series of challenges. In particular, the rapid growth of renewable energy has encountered network bottlenecks, economic difficulties faced by policy measures to cope with the volatility and intermittency of "wind and solar power", and the high system cost of a high-proportion fluctuating renewable energy power system.

Zhu Tong believes that these problems essentially reflect the actual and possible conflict between "effect" and "efficiency" in the process of energy transition and carbon neutrality. The key reasons for this are: first, the energy transition forced by climate change has determined that "effectiveness" is more important than "efficiency". Second, the current energy transition is not only the substitution of different energy varieties, but also the transformation of the energy system. If the current energy transition is only understood at the level of "energy structure change", and the energy transition is promoted without fundamental changes to the existing energy system and the energy system and mechanism behind it, it is easy to lead to "inefficient" energy transition and decarbonization "effects".

Therefore, Zhu Tong emphasized that integrating "systems thinking" and "efficiency principles" into the practice of energy transition is crucial to alleviate or even avoid the conflict between "effect" and "efficiency" in the process of energy transition and carbon neutrality. He called for accelerating the fundamental transformation of the energy system, improving system flexibility, and building a market mechanism to tap local flexible resources and realize their value in accordance with the principles of systems thinking and efficiency, so as to promote the efficient realization of energy transition and carbon neutrality goals.

Wang Peng, Executive Dean of the National Energy Development Strategy Research Institute of North China Electric Power University and Executive Director of the Distribution and Sales Research Center of the China Energy Research Society, put forward the view of "Welcoming the Arrival of the User-centered Era - Building a New Power System with User-centered and New Energy as the Main Body" at the forum.

He pointed out that in the past, power users were often ignored, but with the deepening of the power market reform and the continuous improvement of the status of users, the future power system will return to the power user-centric.

Wang Peng emphasized that the demands of user groups for the power system are becoming more and more diversified, from economy, reliability to convenience, users no longer passively wait for resource allocation, but actively strive for resource allocation, participate in the planning and construction of power grids. He proposed that the new power system should take new energy as the main body, emphasizing the physical change of the supply side, and at the same time focusing on users to meet the diversified energy needs of users. The future power system will be an energy Internet with electricity as the core, which will solve various problems in energy utilization and achieve green and low-carbon development through technological innovation and institutional reform.

(Editor: Wu Kezhong Review: Li Zhenghao Proofreader: Yan Jingning)